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BREAKING: The US Treasury budget surplus fell -$43 billion YoY in April, or -17%, to $215 billion. April typically produces a budget surplus, as the mid-month tax filing deadline brings in a large wave of receipts from individuals and businesses. This comes as receipts fell -$13 billion YoY, to $837 billion. At the same time, outlays rose +$31 billion YoY, to $622 billion, led by higher interest costs and military spending. Gross interest jumped +$10 billion YoY, to $112 billion, the highest monthly reading on record, while military spending jumped +$6 billion YoY, to $73 billion. Despite April’s surplus, the US government has recorded a deficit of $954 billion over the first 7 months of FY2026, the 3rd-highest in history. Deficit spending is extremely high.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a housing MISMATCH. America has ~148M housing units… …and only ~134M households. That’s a 14M unit surplus on paper. The problem? Builders overbuilt luxury. America underbuilt starter homes. Big difference.

The 2022 energy shock massively accelerated nearly every major weakness in the European economic model. Before the war: → ~55% of German gas imports came from Russia → The eurozone ran a current account surplus of roughly ~3% of GDP → Germany’s industrial model depended on cheap imported energy + export manufacturing → Europe imported nearly 60% of its total energy needs from abroad Even in 2025–2026: → EU industrial electricity prices remained over 2x U.S. levels for energy-intensive sectors → The eurozone current account collapsed from a pre-war surplus of roughly ~3% of GDP into near-balance/deficit in 2022, before only partially recovering to ~1.7–2.0% by 2025 → German industry continued facing structural stagnation, weak industrial output and competitiveness pressure Europe’s long-term priority must be energy sovereignty through electrification, renewables, nuclear, storage, hydrogen and pan-European grid interconnections to reduce external energy dependence well below 25% over the next 15–20 years. This is why Europe’s single most important long-term strategic priority is energy sovereignty. There is no more fundamental issue than this.

【Bloomberg Asia Centric Podcast】 China has long relied on massive infrastructure spending and an unstoppable export engine, leading to a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. However, this investment-heavy strategy is testing its limits as global trading partners increasingly push back, making Beijing's transition toward a consumption-based economy more critical than ever. But how achievable is this transition, and how long will it take? Hao Hong, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Asset Management, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to weigh in. He also breaks down the current regime shift in raw materials, explaining why the global economy is entering a new commodity supercycle driven by Western supply chain investments, AI infrastructure demands and a decade of severe industry underinvestment. 长期以来，中国去年创纪录的人类历史上最大的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差。然而，随着全球贸易摩擦升温，之前以投资为重的战略正在考验其极限，向以消费为基础的经济的转型比以往任何时候都更加重要。但这种转型何时实现？ 我还讨论了当前原材料行业的模式转变，解释了为什么全球经济正在进入由供应链投重构、人工智能基础设施需求和十年严重的大宗商品原材料行业投资不足而驱动的大宗商品超级周期。 我还讨论了从一个“全球最受关注之一的经济学家”（彭博社主持人原话）到“一个成功的对冲基金经理”（彭博社主持人原话）的转变。

In the second half of this dialogue, I debated with Koo on the spot the solution proposed in Koo's (Richard Koo / 辜朝明) book regarding how to address trade protectionism and global trade imbalances. Simply put, China's export advantage does not stem solely from an undervalued exchange rate. Therefore, even a substantial appreciation of the renminbi would not eliminate this advantage. And look, this year the renminbi has clearly appreciated, yet the trade surplus continues to hit record historical highs.

Still seeing a lot of misconceptions about the broader picture, so here’s a TL;DR for dummies. The economy (and markets) are in for a rough ride short term. Four main reasons: tariffs, doge, borrowing costs focus, and AI capex slowing. We’re shifting from injecting liquidity to pulling it out, and that’s going to hurt. 1) Tariffs – The U.S. collected $56B in tariffs last year. That’s jumping to $500B. Some gets absorbed by producers, but most gets passed to consumers as higher prices. More expensive goods = less spending = slower growth. 2) DOGE (Government Downsizing) – Massive federal spending cuts are on the table - potentially 40-50%. Clinton did a smaller version in the ’90s (10-20% job cuts), and we got a budget surplus. AI might soften the blow like the internet did back then, but in the near term, cutting $500B to $1T from the economy means less liquidity, lower demand. 3) Borrowing Costs – Trump's focus has shifted. Before, he watched SPY. Now, it’s all about the cost of borrowing. This shift in focus is like forward guidance - the market is already front-running it. If he pressures for lower rates, the Fed might resist, keeping borrowing costs high. If he succeeds, inflation risk rises. Either way, businesses and consumers carrying debt are in a bind as markets adjust in advance to the changing narrative. 4) NVIDIA & AI Capex Slowing – AI hype propped up the market for the last two years, but signs of slowing are emerging. I've long said to watch NVIDIA closely. Microsoft's lowered capex guidance weeks ago was a signal. NVIDIA's growth expectations were sky-high, but even after an earnings beat, it dropped. Then we had Mag7 priced to perfection—if AI-related spending slows, expect profit-taking and a broader tech unwind. --- Big picture: Less government spending, higher costs, tighter credit, and AI cooling off. The medicine might be needed long term, but short term, expect pain. That doesn’t mean straight down only - we also know how sporadic Trump is. There will still be plenty of focused/micro opportunities to trade. As it has been all cycle: Traders > Holders.

🚨 THE WORLD HAS LOST 10% OF ITS OIL INVENTORIES IN JUST 3 MONTHS. And the market still does not fully understand how serious this supply shock is becoming. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz moved roughly 20-21 million barrels of oil per day, nearly 20% of global oil consumption. Now flows are collapsing. According to EIA data: • Total oil and liquid flows through Hormuz fell from 20.7 mbpd in Q4 2025 to 14.6 mbpd in Q1 2026. • Crude and condensate flows alone dropped from 15.2 mbpd to 10.7 mbpd. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait together reportedly cut around 6.7 mbpd of production tied to Hormuz disruptions. The inventory draw is becoming massive. Energy Intelligence estimates: • Inventories fell roughly 230 million barrels in March • Another 553 million barrels in April • And at least 200 million more in May That is close to 1 BILLION barrels removed from inventories in just 3 months. The IEA says inventory draws recently reached around 4 mbpd and warns the market could remain “severely undersupplied” until at least October even if the conflict stabilizes sooner. The bigger problem starts after the war. Even if flows normalize, the world still has to rebuild those lost inventories. And rebuilding them may take years. If the current crisis eventually creates a 1-2 billion barrel inventory hole by the time the system fully stabilizes, the market would need roughly 1.8 mbpd of EXTRA surplus supply for 3 straight years just to refill inventories. That is where the real issue appears. This is why the current oil situation matters so much. The market is not only dealing with a war-driven supply shock. It is dealing with a global oil system that already had very little spare capacity left before the crisis even started.

These people are completely 🧠🪱. Socialism is why there isn’t enough healthcare. Elon isn’t sitting on a trillion dollars worth of peptides or mri machines. He has capital in the form of shares of SpaceX and Tesla. To convert it to mri machines you’d need to sell the shares to another investor, and then buy mri machines. But if the total number of mri machines stays the same, there is no net new healthcare created. You just made mri machines more expensive. To actually increase the amount of healthcare you need to build stuff, like more hospitals with mri machines. You need investors to risk capital to produce more mri machines. But you just punished the spacex and Tesla investors 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ If you get rid of capitalism the accounting doesn’t disappear. If workers eat more food then the farm produces the workers will eventually starve. Economics doesn’t care if it’s shareholders that capture the surplus or the communist politburo. All it cares about is if the output > input. The government completely sucks at making sure that output > input. It’s not a benign oopsie. Everyone gets punished for it, and no matter how they try to sell their bullshit, the poor get punished the most and the government officials get punished the least.