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TSMC is working hard to maintain its lead over Samsung and Intel, media report, by already preparing for 1nm production at Fab 20 in the Hsinchu Science Park with a 4-phase project (each phase is a new production line). -Fab 20 the vital sub-2nm fab. Phase 1 (P1) and P2 will do 2nm, P3 will do 2nm and A14, with room in P4 for A10 (1nm). The project is already in the hands of its R&D ‘One Team’. -Fab 18 P9 (Tainan) will do 2nm back-end and 3/5nm TSV, with equipment move-in in Q1 2027 and scale up to 25,000 wafers-per-month (wpm) -Fab 22 (Kaohsiung) main 2nm fab, 6 phases. P1 & P2 each 25,000wpm, P3 just started equipment move-in for 2nm, A16; P4 under construction, for N2, A16. -Fab 22 (STSP) P7 construction to start early-2027, will do 2nm and below processes. Has reserved space for future P8 and P9. -Fab 25 (CTSP, Taichung) will host 4-phases for A14, A13, A12 processes, with P1 already under construction, with P2 construction to begin soon, and P3 & P4 already in planning. In advanced packaging: -AP6 plant is expected to reach 10,000 wafers per month capacity by the 3rd quarter, and ramp up phase 3 for CoWoS, SoIC and InFO as well. (Hsinchu) -AP5B plant construction nearly finished, will focus on CoWoS (Taichung) -AP7 plant will be TSMC’s biggest advanced packaging campus, with P1 already packaging Apple chips with WMCM (Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module) P2 nearly done, with equipment move-in in July, for SoIC for Nvidia. Planning for P3-P7 already underway and will support SoIC and CoPoS. (Chiayi) -AP8 will do CoWoS, with monthly capacity to exceed 40,000 wafers by end-2026, and planning for P2, P3 already started. (Tainan) $TSM $INTC $SSNLF #semiconductors# #semiconductor#
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MssCorp (TWE: 6830) Serenity High Conviction Bet(analysis fully grounded in TSMC’s latest public expansion plans and 2026 industry data): – this is the functional monopoly in CPO/SiPh inspection (90%+ share targeted, pricing power is real). Long list of customers ($TSM, $NVDA, $AAPL, $AMAT , $LRCX, $ASML , $INTC ) all need to go through them for yields. NVIDIA dedicated AI Chip Zone in US facility = strategic lock-in. -GS CPO TAM still the anchor: $91B by 2028. -TSMC CoWoS doubling to 130k-140k wafers per month by end-2026 via AP7 Chiayi (world’s largest advanced packaging hub, CoPoS pilot 2026/volume ramp 2027-28) + AP8 Tainan (P1/P2) + AP5/AP6 upgrades. We are still in the frontrunning window. Pure TSMC fab expansion model only — no NVIDIA exclusive assumed. Factory-by-factory HG demand: HG is specialized QA/FA tool (not standard per-line gear). Base Assumption~60 units per major packaging “module group” (20 front / 20 mid / 20 back). Using latest TSMC 2026 data: AP6 (Longtan/Taichung): Operating + upgrade → ~30 units / MssCorp 25-30 units AP7 Chiayi: World’s largest, CoPoS pilot → ~45-120 units / MssCorp 40-100 units AP8 Tainan (P1-P2): Construction/ramp → ~120 units/ MssCorp 100-110 units AP8 later phases + AP9: 2028+ planning → ~240-260 units / MssCorp 200-220 units TSMC only total: ~435-530 units / MssCorp 365-460 units Updated HG model (reflecting monopoly + pricing power): Industry total demand 130-200 units 26-30. With 90%+ monopoly → MssCorp ships 120-180 units (spares + repeat buys). ASP NT$60M (pricing power) + GM 60-75%. HG contribution build (NT$ bn, cumulative 2026-2030): Equipment sales + Recurring services/consumables (25–45% of equipment value over 5 years) + IP licensing (20–35% of equipment rev, 80-90% margin). Total HG contribution NT$9.5bn–NT$13bn. Core MA/FA business growing 20-30% CAGR from NT$22B 2025 base on top. Revenue path (NT$ bn): 2026: 30–38 2027: 45–62 2028: 65–88 2029-30+: 180–240/yr (normalized) Mix shifts hard to high-margin equipment + recurring + IP as CPO goes volume Share count 51.78M. With the structural monopoly in a critical yield choke-point + TSMC/NVIDIA tailwinds, long-term normalized forward EPS can realistically reach NT$180–240 (US$5.6–7.5). 40–60x forward P/E (standard for AI/SiPh leaders with real moats) → target NT$5,000+. Current MC ~$1.2–1.4B.
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