14,641,148 shares of Taiyo Yuden (TSE: 6976) changed hands on 3 August. 10.8 percent of the company, in one day.
Nobody who received them has to file anything.
A correction before the rest. On 12 August I wrote that a Japanese large shareholding report does not name the counterparty. That was wrong. The 60 day table has a column for it, and Situational Awareness has now filed that detail.
Five names took the block.
Citadel Multi-Strategy Equities Master Fund, 3,335,335 and 1,287,985 shares at 9,397 yen
Jane Street Financial, 1,882,020 at 10,225
JP Morgan Securities, 4,135,808 at 10,225
Barclays Bank, 4,000,000 at 10,225
Now count the slices. 3.05, 2.95, 2.46, 1.38, 0.94.
Japan's disclosure threshold is 5 percent. Not one of them crosses it.
And the seller finished that day at 4.41 percent, down from a peak of 16.61 on 21 July. That is also below 5.
So both sides of the trade are now invisible. The fund has dropped under the line it was reporting from. The five who took the stock never crossed it.
One more thing in the table. Two prices. Citadel paid 9,397 yen. The other three paid 10,225. Same day, same stock, 828 yen apart. The filing does not say why, so neither will I.
And the selling started before the story did. 185,200 shares on 28 July, in the market. 1,700,000 on 30 July. The margin call reporting came on the 29th and 30th.
What I still cannot tell you: three of those five are dealer entities. Where the stock went after them is not in any document I can read.
Sources, in order:
Situational Awareness LP, large shareholding reports on Taiyo Yuden, initial filing through change report No.8, EDINET.
The 10.8 percent and the 9,963 yen weighted average are my arithmetic from that 60 day table, and the read is mine too. Not advice.
Show more
I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976)
It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th.
Current prices are ¥9,797.
I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.
Show more
Hey legends,
Unfortunately this will likely be my last message in the Taiyo server as I’ve made the very tough decision to list my last GEN 1 today.
The reason for this is that I’ve had something huge come up in my online life which will require a significant amount of capital immediately. I am going to purchase a 1/1 yoot NFT. I have my Taiyo Gen1 listed at current floor price to ensure I don’t dump the floor, he’s the only one with a Solana logo on the chest that is listed and he’s boosted 15%.
I’m really sad to let it go as it’s one of my favourite NFTs and I also really believe in the future of Taiyo and GP.
I want to take the opportunity to express my deepest gratitude to
@SolportTom for showing up everyday and for creating life changing gains for all of us, if it weren’t for Tom I would not be able to afford a 1/1 yoot.
I’ve made a lot of friends here and I’m sure I will be back some day with a 1/1 yoot pfp.
Much love to all of you legends!
Beep Boop and y00t y00t (i have a 1/1 y00t)
Show more
Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory...
Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes.
Price hikes projections expected for H2:
- SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1
- High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1
- ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3
- DDR2: +35-40% in Q3
- LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3
- DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising
As a consolidated view...
Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026.
Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC)
So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook
Show more