KawzInvests
@KawzInvests
Research-focused. Photonics. AI. Defense. Tech. Space.
Optic Supercycle. NFA DYDD
632 Following 118.5K Followers
It's 2027. You wake up at 6:54 AM and your phone won't unlock.
1:47 AM → An AI agent clones your voice from an Instagram video and moves your number to its SIM
2:30 AM → Another uses your face to reset your email
3:12 AM → $25,400 wired to Nevada
3:40 AM → $40,000 loan approved in your name
4:05 AM → Insurance claim filed 900 miles away
7:15 AM → You call your bank. A chatbot asks you to verify your identity. You can't
7:35 AM → The agents move on to your family
They do not just watch you anymore. They become you.
The trillion dollar industry of verifying human existence.
The 2027 Human Identity Crisis. Out now.
Show more
My identity security report goes out tomorrow. Tonight one of my five picks reported.
$OSPN up 20% after hours on a beat and raise.
> Revenue $63.9M vs $57.4M expected (+12% YoY)
> Subscription revenue +16%
> ARR +9% to $195.5M
> Net retention 105%
> FY guide raised on revenue, ARR and adjusted EBITDA
This month hackers hit 16 Korean financial institutions and India's largest bank.
$OSPN says more than 60% of the world's 100 largest banks use its products.
OneSpan is one of five picks in my identity security report, out tomorrow. Keep an eye out for this one, the other four are just as interesting. $OSPN
Show more
How many hyped IPOs have burned retail in the past couple years?
$CRWV. $CBRS. $BLSH. $FIG. Even $SPCX got hammered after the initial hype.
Now Nscale reportedly wants ~$30B, but $MSFT has pulled out of a UK data center deal and some investors are pushing for $16–19B. I wouldn’t be surprised if this IPO gets delayed.
Last week, Reuters reported some Anthropic investors were discussing a valuation closer to ~$1.5T, versus earlier expectations of ~$2T.
Retail shouldn't have to bet on five years of perfect execution just to earn a decent return.
Leave something on the table.
Show more
RAMmageddon continues to show up in phone shipments.
IDC says global smartphone shipments fell 22% in Q3, the worst decline on record. Growth isn’t expected to recover until 2028 at the earliest.
IDC research director Nabila Popal says the smartphone market “has not yet reached the bottom.”
“Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising.”
“The worst is yet to come.”
$MU $SNDK $AAPL $QCOM
Show more
Update on VARA: looks like the fund didn’t get liquidated after all.
The blowup rumor appears to have been wrong.
But judging by the tape, wouldn’t be surprised if someone else did today.
VARA AI Fund had 9 employees and about $26.4B under management at the end of June, 16 months after launching its hedge fund.
Rumor going around today that it blew up.
Their 3/31 13F book at today’s prices is $13.1B across 60 names.
$NBIS $1.28B
$BE $1.27B
$LITE $1.03B
$CRWV $889M
$STX $728M
$VRT $720M
$WDC $624M
$CLS $537M
$COHR $492M
$FIX $426M
Show more
In hindsight, the guy with a decade-long thesis buying calls with a two-week expiration probably wasn’t a great sign.
VARA AI Fund had 9 employees and about $26.4B under management at the end of June, 16 months after launching its hedge fund.
Rumor going around today that it blew up.
Their 3/31 13F book at today’s prices is $13.1B across 60 names.
$NBIS $1.28B
$BE $1.27B
$LITE $1.03B
$CRWV $889M
$STX $728M
$VRT $720M
$WDC $624M
$CLS $537M
$COHR $492M
$FIX $426M
Show more
a rumor that the VARA AI fund has blown up is making the rounds
3 reasons:
1. AI slower, less corp bonds, less supply on the long end
2. AI slower, US GDP slower, real yield down.
3. AI slower, less memory/computer component supply shock, less inflation.
All points to lower US10Y
Show more
$ASML JUST REPORTED RECORD Q3 SALES. CUSTOMERS ARE ALREADY LOOKING TO 2030.
> REVENUE: €11.66B VS €11.7B EST.
> EPS: €12.95 VS €10.82 EST.
> GROSS MARGIN: 57.5%
“Our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.”
“Some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030.”
ASML is looking to expand 2028 capacity beyond the additional 30% increase previously discussed.
TLDR: Same trend across the AI buildout. Demand keeps outpacing supply...
Show more
Little Easter egg at the SK Hynix booth at OCP 🐧
$PENG brought their smallest engineer to supervise the memory racks.
$LITE showing the ecosystem forming around near-package optics.
Open CPX founders include Ciena $CIEN, Coherent $COHR and Marvell $MRVL, alongside Molex, Samtec and TeraHop.
Publicly traded contributors shown here include
Credo $CRDO
Intel $INTC
MaxLinear $MXL
Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI
Astera Labs $ALAB
Amphenol $APH
Keysight $KEYS
TE Connectivity $TEL
VIAVI $VIAV
Lumentum $LITE
NPO reuses the existing pluggable supply chain, making it much easier to scale.
Show more
Recent data at the OCP Summit confirms what has been clear for a while... qualification and testing remain the central gating factor for optical transceivers at scale.
Celestica's numbers show how testing windows have continuously compressed with each generation:
> 400G: 36 months
> 800G: 24 months
> 1.6T: 18 months
With GPU architectures refreshing every 12 months and 224G per lane leaving no margin for error, the core structural thesis hasn't changed.
Ramping laser fab capacity doesn't solve the problem on its own if transceivers can't be validated and qualified fast enough to match the silicon cadence.
$VIAV $AEHR $COHU $FORM $TER
Show more
A lot of chatter around scale-in, scale-up, scale-out and scale-across at OCP. 👀
$AVGO’s photonics roadmap goes from 25.6T in 2022 to 102.4T in 2026, with next-generation optical compute interconnect on the roadmap for 2028.
Interesting slide from OpenAI.
A single request moves through three stages with different hardware needs. Compute, network latency and memory bandwidth each become a constraint along the way.
Show more
Broadcom at OCP Global Summit on what it takes to scale photonics.
Advanced packaging
Optical connectivity, 1,000+ fibers into every chip package
Volume manufacturing, automated assembly and test
$AVGO $AMKR $GLW $AEHR
Show more
WOW $META
Muse Wonder Full ahead of OpenAI and Google here. Only Opus 5.5 above it.
Introducing Muse Wonder, our new family of frontier models with state of the art performance for personal and professional agentic work.
