"Shortages are spreading from Memory to wafers, CPUs, optics" - $ANET Gross margins will be coming down due to silicon price inflation. Expect all companies reliant on silicon and without sufficient pricing power to get margin headwinds. Who benefits? The strong players in the semi supply chain with pricing power are still trading on attractive valuations: $TSM, Semicap like $ASML, the DRAM triopoly (SK Hynix, $MU and Samsung), are some of the most obvious winners in silicon. $NVDA has locked in tons of capacity so will benefit. A big winner can also be $INTC. For years, there has been no demand for their Foundry, but this is changing now where even TSMC has not sufficient capacity.

🚨 DIAMOND IS ABOUT TO REPLACE SILICON IN NEXT-GEN CHIPS. Scientists are now producing large single-crystal CVD diamond wafers that could revolutionize electronics. Diamond conducts heat 5× better than copper and over 10× better than silicon while also handling extreme voltages, high frequencies, and radiation. Why this matters: • Thermal Superpower: Diamond acts as its own heat sink, solving one of the biggest problems in high-power chips • Ultra Wide Bandgap: Handles massive voltage and extreme temperatures without breaking down • High Frequencies: Electrons move incredibly fast, perfect for 6G, radar, and advanced telecom • Radiation Hardness: Ideal for satellites, space tech, and nuclear applications The deeper implication is massive: We’re at the early stages of a materials revolution. As silicon hits its physical limits with heat and power, diamond one of the most extraordinary materials in nature could power the next era of AI chips, electric vehicles, and aerospace systems. What do you think will diamond semiconductors become mainstream in the 2030s? Follow for more frontier materials science and future technology.

Today, $FOTO launches on @CBOE. The Tuttle Capital Photonics ETF. Learn more: Lasers. Optical transceivers. Silicon photonics. Specialty wafers. Foundry capacity. The highway between the chips is moving from copper to light. Distributor: Foreside Fund Services

Japanese company TOTO, famous for making high-tech toilets, saw its stock price jump sharply after reporting strong growth in its ceramics business. This is because they make special ceramic parts used in producing computer chips for AI. These parts hold silicon wafers steady during manufacturing. Thanks to high AI demand, TOTO is investing more to expand this ceramics division. In the last financial year, sales in this unit grew 34% to 67.4 billion yen. The division now accounts for more than half of the company’s total profit.

China's company CXMT is rapidly increasing its production of DRAM memory chips Due to this extra supply, experts now expect DRAM prices to fall in the second half of 2027, earlier than the previous prediction of 2028 or 2029. CXMT is producing DDR5 chips running at speeds up to 8,000 MT/s with capacities of 16Gb and 24Gb. They remain about one generation behind leading companies technologically. CXMT's business grew rapidly, with revenue jumping more than 700% in the first three months of 2026 compared to the prior year. The company expects 110 to 120 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of the year. Global DRAM production is expected to reach about 6 million wafers per month by late 2027. This increase should help address current shortages driven by high demand for AI and data centers.

HSBC Raises $NVDA PT to $325 from $295 - Buy; ER Preview Analyst comments: "At its upcoming 1QFY27 results announcement on May 20, we expect NVIDIA to report 1QFY27 revenue of USD81.1 billion, 4%/3% higher than management guidance and Visible Alpha consensus estimates of USD78.0 billion/USD78.6 billion. We also expect 2QFY27E revenue of USD91.1 billion versus consensus estimate of USD85.6 billion, implying another “beat and raise” quarter. We also raise our FY28E EPS by 27% to USD13.01, 16% above consensus of USD11.20, on higher FY28E data center revenue of USD528 billion versus consensus of USD465.3 billion, on the back of an upward revision to chip-on-wafer-on-substrate allocation from 900,000 to 1.1 million wafers. Over the past five years, all major NVIDIA stock price movements have been led by a combination of its evolving AI product roadmap — starting with significant ASP pricing power with first-generation AI GPUs, A100 and H100 — driving significant earnings upside along with consistent “beat and raise” financial results. However, since the buzz around sovereign AI and the opportunity from neoclouds, no new narrative has emerged, and NVIDIA shares have underperformed the SOX over the last six months despite having two GTC events and two sets of financial results that beat estimates and raised expectations. Hence, we believe AI GPU earnings momentum and its upcoming Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra product roadmap have become less meaningful narratives for significant re-rating or share price upside potential. Despite the ever-increasing CAPEX trend by CSPs that shows no signs of abating, NVIDIA now has to share the CAPEX with memory makers, AI networking, and server CPU vendors. Hence, NVIDIA needs to show evidence of diversifying its non-CSP customer base to fuel its AI GPU momentum. New TAM opportunities via agentic AI server CPUs and its recent optics-related deals could also potentially be emerging narratives that could lead to more significant earnings revisions or re-rating." Analyst: Frank Lee

Kye-hyun Kyung, Samsung Electronics Senior Advisor: "Memory prices to fall in H2 next year… Korea must cultivate deep-tech manufacturing" Kye-hyun Kyung, Senior Advisor and former head of Samsung Electronics' Device Solutions (DS) Division, forecast that memory semiconductor prices will decline starting in the second half of next year, and urged Korean industry to prepare in advance. Delivering the keynote at the 285th NAEK Forum, hosted by the National Academy of Engineering of Korea (NAEK) at L-Tower in Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 18th, Advisor Kyung said, "Chinese players are aggressively expanding production capacity (CAPA)," adding that "as memory supply surges, the market could shift starting in the second half of next year or the first half of 2028." Citing global market research firms, Kyung projected that memory prices will fall from H2 next year, when global memory CAPA is expected to surge to 6 million wafers per month. "If Big Tech's return on capex deteriorates, there is a possibility that investment could be scaled back," he said, also warning that memory demand itself could contract from 2028 onwards. While Korean industry, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is currently enjoying unprecedented growth by capturing Big Tech's memory demand, the former head of Samsung's semiconductor business argued that Korea must prepare in advance for the post-boom period. Advisor Kyung pointed out, "Korea holds nearly 70% share of the DRAM market, but only 1.5% of the fabless market, and unlike Taiwan, Korea lacks a full-stack semiconductor ecosystem that includes fabless." He went on to advise that "Korea must leap forward as a deep-tech-based manufacturing nation." The point is that Korea should independently build advanced technology capabilities—not only in memory but also in fabless-based system semiconductors and sovereign AI—and actively apply them to its existing strength in manufacturing. He added, "It is difficult for Korea to compete simultaneously with the U.S. and China in both hardware and software," and that "it is important for Korea to do what it does well, and to that end, we must seriously consider how to deploy AI."

TSMC is working hard to maintain its lead over Samsung and Intel, media report, by already preparing for 1nm production at Fab 20 in the Hsinchu Science Park with a 4-phase project (each phase is a new production line). -Fab 20 the vital sub-2nm fab. Phase 1 (P1) and P2 will do 2nm, P3 will do 2nm and A14, with room in P4 for A10 (1nm). The project is already in the hands of its R&D ‘One Team’. -Fab 18 P9 (Tainan) will do 2nm back-end and 3/5nm TSV, with equipment move-in in Q1 2027 and scale up to 25,000 wafers-per-month (wpm) -Fab 22 (Kaohsiung) main 2nm fab, 6 phases. P1 & P2 each 25,000wpm, P3 just started equipment move-in for 2nm, A16; P4 under construction, for N2, A16. -Fab 22 (STSP) P7 construction to start early-2027, will do 2nm and below processes. Has reserved space for future P8 and P9. -Fab 25 (CTSP, Taichung) will host 4-phases for A14, A13, A12 processes, with P1 already under construction, with P2 construction to begin soon, and P3 & P4 already in planning. In advanced packaging: -AP6 plant is expected to reach 10,000 wafers per month capacity by the 3rd quarter, and ramp up phase 3 for CoWoS, SoIC and InFO as well. (Hsinchu) -AP5B plant construction nearly finished, will focus on CoWoS (Taichung) -AP7 plant will be TSMC’s biggest advanced packaging campus, with P1 already packaging Apple chips with WMCM (Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module) P2 nearly done, with equipment move-in in July, for SoIC for Nvidia. Planning for P3-P7 already underway and will support SoIC and CoPoS. (Chiayi) -AP8 will do CoWoS, with monthly capacity to exceed 40,000 wafers by end-2026, and planning for P2, P3 already started. (Tainan) $TSM $INTC $SSNLF #semiconductors# #semiconductor#