16.8 billion dollars was announced jointly on August 6th, and SpaceX's own prospectus says neither Tesla nor Intel is obligated to remain! Eighteen days on, no public filing states what Tesla must pay, or what ownership, chip capacity or intellectual property it receives for paying. What exists instead is a tax contract, signed by SpaceX alone. Grimes County requires at least 5 billion of investment by 2030 and 1,800 jobs by 2035, with no automatic penalty if SpaceX hits 90 percent of either. SpaceX may terminate for any reason on 30 days notice, and local open records reporting puts the maximum clawback at 60 million, being up to three years of abated taxes net of the fixed payments. That 60 million is a remedy inside a county incentive deal. It is not the price of abandoning a 16.8 billion dollar factory. The factory's funding lives in a separate agreement between the companies, and that agreement has not been made public. The prospectus language is the part that matters most. SpaceX described the Tesla arrangement as a general framework. Specific capital expenditure, milestones, timelines and intellectual property all still required separate negotiation. Neither partner was obligated to stay. Tesla's most recent quarterly filing does not close the gap either. It discloses a 2 billion dollar SpaceX stake and Megapack sales to SpaceX, then states that other SpaceX and related party transactions were immaterial through June 30th. Company-wide capital spending guidance exceeds 25 billion for the year with no Terafab figure broken out anywhere. Then the loop. Tesla's unrealised gain on that SpaceX stake was 1.005 billion pre-tax and 763 million after tax in the second quarter, against 1.114 billion of GAAP net income. Sixty eight percent of Tesla's profit came from marking the equity of the partner leading the factory Tesla is expected to help fund. The headline itself has moved a lot. Roughly 20 to 25 billion in March. Then 55 billion initial and 119 billion multi-phase in the May filings. Then 16.8 billion for phase one in August. The step from 55 to 16.8 has never been publicly reconciled. Two smaller corrections belong on the record. The abatement is described as 100 percent, though a SpaceX attorney put the effective rate nearer 78 percent once the fixed payments are counted, roughly 10 million non-refundable plus 20 million a year from 2027 to 2036. And the site will run on natural gas turbines bought from a company Musk owns outright, under a commitment reported above 2.8 billion, rather than from Tesla Energy where his stake is about a fifth. None of that establishes any wrongdoing, and the counter-case is strong. Framework agreements routinely leave definitive terms for later. Disclosure rules trigger on material transactions, not press releases. SpaceX has the post-IPO balance sheet and the site control. Intel supplies fabrication process knowledge neither company has ever had. Tesla's nearer-term silicon is already contracted elsewhere. But the question shareholders cannot price is exact, and it is not rhetorical. How much must Tesla fund, and what does Tesla receive. The public has the tax contract. It still does not have the capital contract.

Throughout the night, Russia carried out another large-scale terror attack against Ukraine's civilian population. Emergency response operations continue across Kyiv and the surrounding region. Seven districts of the capital sustained damage. Eighteen residential buildings, a school, the Embassy of Lithuania, and other civilian infrastructure were affected. Nine people have been confirmed killed, while dozens more were injured. My deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of those who lost their lives. All those injured are receiving the medical care they need. Russia launched 35 missiles, including 27 ballistic missiles, together with 185 attack drones of various types. Kyiv was the main target, but the Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions also came under attack. The shortage of ballistic missile interceptors continues to cost innocent lives. Every additional interceptor strengthens our ability to defend our people and our cities. These capabilities are needed in Ukraine today. I thank every partner working with us to strengthen our air defense and protect our people.

Morgan Stanley on $MRVL (EW, PT $246): Solid quarter, but no near-term surprises, as the qtr & outlook were in line with prior commentary. Expectations were higher cuz of the Google relationship announced a few days ago, but that customer was contemplated in prior guidance. We are generally quite positive on the shift in messaging from MRVL and the long-term growth opportunity. Eighteen months ago, it felt that the growth dynamic was significantly tied to big monolithic custom ASIC opportunities. While we like the optionality of that market, competing directly with NVIDIA is hard and doesn’t always pan out. We still think there are some headwinds from the Trainium relationship in these numbers. But the focus on a broad range of 'XPU attach' businesses, as well as optical connectivity, and more recently scale-up, which is a totally greenfield opportunity, brings much higher visibility. That said, MRVL trades differently from other AI names. They tend to give very bullish long-term forecasts, then execute to those forecasts, versus other companies that tend to trade more on beats and raises. That puts significant focus on the analyst day." Analyst: Joseph Moore

Brands and media companies are now generating campaigns and entertainment with video gen models, but for now it's mostly happening in China 122,000 AI-generated short dramas went online there in Q1 alone. The short drama market now pulls in roughly double what their entire box office does. The cost per minute fell from ~$2,100 to $140 in eighteen months and the models just keep getting better. Made this video with seedance 2.0 and nano banana pro

I played mini golf with my neighbor's family. Their son Caleb is seven. I treated the course with respect. I read the wind. I checked the turf. Caleb watched my first putt and said, "You gotta bank it off the whale." I banked it off the whale. Hole in one. I bowed to my sensei. He was eating a Push Pop. For eighteen holes, he guided me. "Not that hard." "Aim at the clown's nose." "The windmill is slow. Just go." Every word was scripture. The Push Pop turned his tongue blue. His wisdom remained pure. On the 18th hole, my ball dropped into the winning slot. A bell rang. FREE GAME. I gave the coupon to my sensei. He inspected it like a contract, front and back, then put it in his pocket, next to a rock. A very good rock. I know a treasure vault when I see one. His father says Caleb checks his pocket every morning. The coupon expires in thirty days. We are going back on Saturday.

Hormuz Traffic Rebounds Sharply Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up on 13 August, with 13 confirmed crossings, a 44% day on day increase from nine. Of these, nine vessels used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, none were confirmed on the Hormuz TSS and four routes remained undetermined. Bab el Mandeb activity was steadier, with 29 confirmed crossings, up 4% from 28. Eighteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 11 exited, while two dark transits were recorded. No new confirmed vessel attacks were reported during the day. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler# Insight:

Pakistan has told the United Kingdom that Shabir Ahmed, the ringleader of the Rochdale grooming gang, was "raised, groomed and spoilt in Britain." The outraged response has been almost universal. Here is the problem. It is true, and I can prove it. For eighteen years, Oldham Council employed this man as a welfare rights officer, seconded to a community centre, sitting across the desk from vulnerable families and their children. He sat on the board of the Citizens Advice Bureau. He carried a Labour Party card. And he was protected. The national inquiry now has the power to find out who and why. Every official, every decision, every name. Whether it does is dependent on the pressure we apply. Unless you believe a Labour Party Baroness will do it willingly. I understand why people feel it. But eight years ago I was told there was no cover-up and no story worth telling, by the people who ran the council, the police and the party that held both. Three council leaders are gone. Every case they brought against me was defeated in the courts, and in May the High Court ruled against GMP itself. A national inquiry now exists because ordinary people refused to accept the official account, and they are the ones still running from the truth. Burnham in Number 10 raises the stakes. For years he held up his assurance reviews as proof there was nothing to find. While those reviews were telling you nothing happened, Operation Hexagon was running, a joint operation between GMP and Oldham Council that came after the people asking questions instead of the men raping children. Every officer involved answered, through the chain of command, to the Mayor who held police and crime powers in his own hands. The statutory inquiry can now compel his evidence under oath, and the reviews, and Hexagon, become part of what he has to answer for. The only way he escapes is if we stop. My name is Raja Miah. I led the campaign that exposed the Pakistani Rape Gang cover up in my hometown of Oldham. The people of my town helped force the national inquiry. As well as Pakistani gangsters and Islamists, we fought against the man that is now Prime Minister to expose the truth. This fight now runs all the way to Downing Street. - Raja Miah MBE