This is a good, and very debatable question - Which of the 3 women's GS champs so far this year will end up with the most singles GSs in their career? I'm choosing: 1. Noskova 2. Rybakina (close behind) 3. Andreeva

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GS on 天孚通信：We are positive on TFC Optical and raise TP to Rmb436 to reflect ：(1)rising GS estimates on global optical modules TAM (Report link), and TFC as a key OE (Optical Engine) supplier, (2) incremental revenues from CPO scale-out and scale-up optical market (Report link), and(3) gradual expansion of optical module assembly business with higher content value. Following the 7% QoQ growth in 1Q26, we expect to see sequential QoQ growth ahead on improving optics chips supply and 1.6T products ramp up. We remain constructive on TFC Optical with its capabilities of offering a total solution (optical engine, FAU, ELS, optical module assembly etc.), benefiting from the growing optical module market and incremental CPO scale-out/scale-up opportunities.

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

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Six months later than planned, but I can confirm that my analyst firm @MoreThanMoore2x is officially a Silver Sponsor of Hot Chips 2026! @hotchipsorg I'm thankfully now in a position to throw a few Gs to my favourite conference of the year. Hope to see you there!

MssCorp (TWE: 6830) Serenity High Conviction Bet（analysis fully grounded in TSMC’s latest public expansion plans and 2026 industry data）： – this is the functional monopoly in CPO/SiPh inspection (90%+ share targeted, pricing power is real). Long list of customers ($TSM, $NVDA, $AAPL, $AMAT , $LRCX, $ASML , $INTC ) all need to go through them for yields. NVIDIA dedicated AI Chip Zone in US facility = strategic lock-in. -GS CPO TAM still the anchor: $91B by 2028. -TSMC CoWoS doubling to 130k-140k wafers per month by end-2026 via AP7 Chiayi (world’s largest advanced packaging hub, CoPoS pilot 2026/volume ramp 2027-28) + AP8 Tainan (P1/P2) + AP5/AP6 upgrades. We are still in the frontrunning window. Pure TSMC fab expansion model only — no NVIDIA exclusive assumed. Factory-by-factory HG demand: HG is specialized QA/FA tool (not standard per-line gear). Base Assumption~60 units per major packaging “module group” (20 front / 20 mid / 20 back). Using latest TSMC 2026 data: AP6 (Longtan/Taichung): Operating + upgrade → ~30 units / MssCorp 25-30 units AP7 Chiayi: World’s largest, CoPoS pilot → ~45-120 units / MssCorp 40-100 units AP8 Tainan (P1-P2): Construction/ramp → ~120 units/ MssCorp 100-110 units AP8 later phases + AP9: 2028+ planning → ~240-260 units / MssCorp 200-220 units TSMC only total: ~435-530 units / MssCorp 365-460 units Updated HG model (reflecting monopoly + pricing power): Industry total demand 130-200 units 26-30. With 90%+ monopoly → MssCorp ships 120-180 units (spares + repeat buys). ASP NT$60M (pricing power) + GM 60-75%. HG contribution build (NT$ bn, cumulative 2026-2030): Equipment sales + Recurring services/consumables (25–45% of equipment value over 5 years) + IP licensing (20–35% of equipment rev, 80-90% margin). Total HG contribution NT$9.5bn–NT$13bn. Core MA/FA business growing 20-30% CAGR from NT$22B 2025 base on top. Revenue path (NT$ bn): 2026: 30–38 2027: 45–62 2028: 65–88 2029-30+: 180–240/yr (normalized) Mix shifts hard to high-margin equipment + recurring + IP as CPO goes volume Share count 51.78M. With the structural monopoly in a critical yield choke-point + TSMC/NVIDIA tailwinds, long-term normalized forward EPS can realistically reach NT$180–240 (US$5.6–7.5). 40–60x forward P/E (standard for AI/SiPh leaders with real moats) → target NT$5,000+. Current MC ~$1.2–1.4B.

People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1# thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.

There's no doubt that peptides are making young people gay at an alarming rate. Our job is to capitalize long term on this trend by studying the second-order effects and investing accordingly. Here' how I'm playing this trend: Obvious buy is Grindr. And Match Group owns Hinge and Tinder which are both deep into the gay market. Bumble less gay exposure but still benefits. Gays also love and spend alot of money on pets so you want to be long Chewy. Trupanion for insurance, Zoetis, and Idexx for animal health, Freshpet for premium food. Pet spending is probably the biggest second-order effect by total dollars Gays travel more and index heavily toward urban destinations, cruises, and resort experiences. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Marriott, Hilton, Booking, and Airbnb. Cruise lines in particular have a long history of chartered gay cruises. Gays are heavy into personal care and grooming and spend rises materially. Estée Lauder, Ulta, and e.l.f. are all obvious beneficiaries of this trend. Gays are into fitness and adore Lululemon. And there's the publicly traded gyms like Life Time, Planet Fitness. Gym membership rates among gay men run well above the general population. Premium fashion and accessible luxury is a major gay market. Benefits Tapestry (Coach/Kate Spade), Capri (Michael Kors/Versace), Ralph Lauren, and the European luxury houses (LVMH, Kering) on foreign exchanges. You can probably short Mattel, Hasbro, Carter's, Children's Place, Kimberly-Clark (Huggies), and suburban-focused homebuilders like Lennar and D.R. Horton would face significant headwinds as gays hate the suburbs and flock to cities. P&G's Pampers business will be in trouble. Finally an asymmetric bet that fertility benefit companies like Progyny will see exponential growth as gays still want kids but through IVF and surrogacy. Hamilton Thorne makes IVF lab equipment.