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This is a good, and very debatable question - Which of the 3 women's GS champs so far this year will end up with the most singles GSs in their career? I'm choosing: 1. Noskova 2. Rybakina (close behind) 3. Andreeva
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Editor-in-chief: Nina Garcia Photographer: Inez & Vinoodh Stylist: Jahleel Weaver Writer: Roxane Gay Hair: Jawara at Art Partner using Fenty Hair Makeup: Hector Espinal using Fenty Beauty & Fenty Skin Manicure: Kim Truong at A-Frame Agency Produced by GS World Media and VLM Productions
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GS on 天孚通信:We are positive on TFC Optical and raise TP to Rmb436 to reflect :(1)rising GS estimates on global optical modules TAM (Report link), and TFC as a key OE (Optical Engine) supplier, (2) incremental revenues from CPO scale-out and scale-up optical market (Report link), and(3) gradual expansion of optical module assembly business with higher content value. Following the 7% QoQ growth in 1Q26, we expect to see sequential QoQ growth ahead on improving optics chips supply and 1.6T products ramp up. We remain constructive on TFC Optical with its capabilities of offering a total solution (optical engine, FAU, ELS, optical module assembly etc.), benefiting from the growing optical module market and incremental CPO scale-out/scale-up opportunities.
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Just some notes from $NBIS fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Tech Conference: TLDR: Yep, it's bullish. 1. Order book extends into H1 2028 which is 2 quarters further out than at Q2 ER. Arkady said "people are demanding tens of thousands of vGPUs and GPUs now. So we see demand today as unlimited." Bro...what?!! At Q2, they said that all of 2027 could be sold today. But Nebius having visibility ~1.5 years away massively de-risks their ~5GW contracted power target and their ~$25B of FY26 capex. On demand, Arkady also said that demand visibility now extends to 24+ months (vs. 18 months previously). This is HUGE because demand duration is a huge crux for neocloud bears (kinda makes sense why). Even $CRWV CEO said at the GS Conference that they are "struggling to meet demand everyday." 2. "We do not pre-sell much. We are focusing on free capacity, which we will be selling later" I think two things are happening here with Nebius First - this is the opposite of $CRWV's model where their ~$104B backlog is take/pay dynamics. Nebius are instead choosing to sit on uncontracted 2027 capacity so they can sell into rising prices, kinda like how $MU and co. were doing pre-LTAs. Second - keeping some spare capacity keeps room for longer-term strategic partners arriving into 2027 (which will be extremely supply-constrained). I.e. enterprise names coming via the $PLTR partnership. I think both reasons make sense, I'm fairly confident that 2027 pricing will be higher. 3. "We actually have a list of new customers that are looking for any of the older generation chips that come available." This lines up with $CRWV disclosing at Q2 an A100 contract priced out to 2029 and completely guts the residual-value thesis bears like Burry lean on. 4. $SHOP "used open-weight models, trained it with their own data repetitively, and they achieved the quality which is higher than they had with GPT-5 and 6." Feels like that's the whole enterprise adoption thesis summarized....narrow domain, pvt data, repeated loop, open weights > fronteir, at a fraction of the cost. Probably also why the token factor and the Tavily acq. matter. So yeah, Nebius' entire infrastructure goes kinda crazy. More than just GPU rental. 5. Contract mix Marc: 3-6 month short-term deals go out "at a multiple of the ARR per megawatt" of the core. 1-3 year medium-term deals are "the lion's share" and 5+ year hyperscaler deals were done "with the explicit intent that we are looking for the capitalization benefit." - So the longer duration $MSFT + $META contracts are lower risk collateral for financing the build - the opportunistic short-duration surge contracts at materially higher pricing are the top-ups. - and the 1-3 year book with AI natives and enterprises (priced above hyperscaler deals + prepaid) are the core + fastest growing segment. Just for a summary of the points I found most interesting / different from Q2 earnings. Cool to also see the "the vision that Arkady has is us becoming a hyperscaler." I've been sharing the same vision for some time now, and is why Nebius ultimately deserve to trade multiples higher than Coreweave for example.
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$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.
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This is still the world record high dive and it’s pure madness In 1983, Rick Charls climbed 172 feet (over 52 meters) at SeaWorld San Diego, launched into a triple flip, and hit the water at more than 70 mph. The impact hit him with about 10 Gs. Then he just swam out on his own like it was nothing. Five guys matched the height that day under the old strict rules, but nobody has cleanly beaten it since. Later attempts ended with broken bones and rescues. Writer: Sol
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Did he blow up again? Today’s momentum sell off was one of the 10 biggest in the post chatGPT era: GS
Six months later than planned, but I can confirm that my analyst firm @MoreThanMoore2x is officially a Silver Sponsor of Hot Chips 2026! @hotchipsorg I'm thankfully now in a position to throw a few Gs to my favourite conference of the year. Hope to see you there!
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