Well, tomorrow's the day for solana:gf9VEb8NqCUgCNNo1sz47LT4gvUvsHJmhW6Q1ndpump - Asia's biggest IPO of 2026, priced at ¥8.66 (~$1.28) on Shanghai's STAR Market.
@HyperliquidX has had it at $6-7 for two straight weeks.
My call here is different from
@SpaceX and
@cerebras , so let me be precise.
I expect it to open well above ¥8.66. I do NOT expect it to reach the Hyperliquid price - and I don't think it should.
That gap isn't purely a valuation call. You need RMB 500k in a mainland account to buy a STAR Market IPO, and offshore money was shut out of the book entirely. HL isn't competing with a market global investors can access. It IS the access.
So I expect a premium to persist after listing. That premium is the price of admission - what someone outside the mainland pays for exposure they otherwise cannot get at all.
One thing changes tomorrow. Pre-IPO these contracts run a funding multiplier of 0.005 - basically free to hold a big premium. On conversion
@tradexyz flips them to the standard 0.5 against the real Shanghai price. That's 100x the carry, overnight.
So: sharp compression, but not to zero. Where it settles is the market's honest price on access. SK Hynix's ADR settled ~15%. China's A/H premium has run 20-50% for years.
That's the number I'll be watching tomorrow. Not the pop.
And zoom out - because in ten weeks Hyperliquid has taken on two of the biggest structural problems in capital markets of the last 50 years:
1. IPOs priced below clearing, moving value out of issuers and their existing shareholders and into the pockets of the buyside.
2. The world's second-largest equity market being effectively closed to everyone outside of it.
Same venue. Same mechanism. Continuous price discovery, open to anyone.
@HypeStrat $PURR #
pricediscovery#