SpaceX grew revenue 92%, but “space” is becoming its smallest business. @legendaryy comments the Q2 earnings: “The headline number is actually a good one. Revenue is up 92% year over year. They had second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion. The net loss is down by half, from $1.01 billion to $540 million. Connectivity and Starlink is the biggest division for Q2 revenue at 55%. Then you have AI, xAI and Grok. That’s another $2.56 billion, another 33%. Space and launch is $960 million. At its heart, it is starting to look more like a traditional AI infrastructure company, building data centers, but profiting more from the Starlink side, whereas space exploration, the main part of the name $SPCX , is obviously the weakest division.”

Coldcard turned bitcoin:native's strongest promise into its biggest risk. @Legendaryy on self custody: “And no matter how much of a believer you are, with all of that happening, I think the best way to store your Bitcoin, unfortunately, is to go out there and buy a BlackRock ETF. Because if BlackRock is messing up their storage, then they are physically replicating the Bitcoin. They owe you the Bitcoin, simply put.”

The US just put the global carry trade on life support. @Legendaryy on the show today: “This move by the Treasury is global volatility control. They want to lower global volatility, and that then should be helpful for the market to be able to go up again. The easier translation here would be to say: We want Japanese rates to be suppressed so capital can keep flowing into the US through the carry trade. If that system comes under stress, we will intervene again to keep it alive. But if the market is relying on the US now to intervene when Japanese rates are getting too high, that makes the market more fragile. The size of the carry trade would grow. That would make the intervention bigger, the potential fallout bigger, and that in itself could induce additional volatility.”

Citadel bought the @leopoldasch's book after steep losses. @BCheque1 thinks its earlier rate-hike call now deserves another look. “So first takeaway for me is that Ken Griffin at Citadel is a killer. Second move, second takeaway, as I said on Wednesday, I didn't believe that this perspective that was shared that Citadel thought there was a rate hike coming was real. I just couldn't see any reason for a rate hike then. And I think what is clear is that they were very aware of the predicament that Situational Awareness was in.”

Are @leopoldasch and Situational Awareness marking the AI bottom? Here's our take from the show:m“And while I don't know if Leopold has the size to literally bottom the AI market, I didn't really understand people saying that they were raising money out of some panic. It doesn't cost that much to run a fund. I don't think they needed to be funding operational costs or plugging holes.”

Apple didn’t just hit $5 trillion. Its new upgrade strategy could halve the iPhone replacement cycle. @Legendaryy on the show: “Statistics show that people on average hold their iPhone for 3.9, so almost four years. And now you have a 12- or 24-month upgrade cycle. So even if you go for the longest option, that means you’re going to upgrade your iPhone, if you’re on this plan, every two years instead of the average American behavior to do that every four years. It’s basically a smart way. The more people are using that, the more iPhones Apple will sell because it is sort of forcing you to upgrade. It’s not forcing you. You can also buy it out, but it’s making it very attractive for you to upgrade at the end of the lease and upgrade twice as fast than you would have done on average.”

Alphabet is nearly 20% off its highs because Wall Street fears the $200B AI bill. @Legendaryy is buying the fear: “Either everyone’s going to be so fundamentally wrong and the whole market is going to collapse, or that little red line here of $5 billion net negative cash flow is not going to matter at all. That is also the reason why I’m just going to add more Alphabet here, because I don’t think that these companies are wrong with it. I just don’t see the issue with deciding after 20 years of hoarding your money that this is now a good occasion to spend that on, and that they are about to spend $200 billion this year.”

OpenAI’s biggest product decision may not be the model. It may be how humans communicate with it. @Legendaryy on ChatGPT Voice: "And for me, it’s saying that they’re experimenting at the same time with: What is the best way to use an LLM? What’s the best way to communicate with it? Is it to have a specialized keyboard, which also has voice control, by the way? Is it to have the most responsive model? They, of course, also have their own harness, the ChatGPT app, which used to be the Codex app. So it seems like this question of what the best way is to work with your AI isn’t fully clear yet.”

$GOOGL is down 7% on the day and $TSLA is down 15% today. Which dip are you buying? Here are our thoughts from today's show: “I’d be happy to buy that dip. Don’t want to buy it on perps, don’t want to buy it on Hyperliquid, but adding a bit of stock Alphabet, of spot Alphabet at a seven percent discount if I can get that, is a trade that I wouldn’t mind too much. Again, not as a short-term flip, not as something where I’m thinking, oh, I’m going to sell that tomorrow because it’s going to recover, but just as a discount on Alphabet, seven percent or so. I would like that.”

According to @barchart, the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ has moved 1% up or down in 20 of the 26 last trading days. @Legendaryy on market volatility and crypto natives moving into stocks: "Crypto is too volatile. I’m moving my money into stocks. This is an IBM, a company that’s worth hundreds and hundreds of billions. I’m going to buy that. The government is also supporting that. Then see it move down 25% in a day, which is a move that we haven’t seen in Bitcoin for such a long time. That is something that happened in the previous cycles. We don’t see that in this cycle. A 10% move, a 12% move in a day like the October 10 move was outrageous. But you would not expect Bitcoin to crash 25%. And now you’re seeing that on tech giants like IBM happen.”

On yesterday's show we discussed shorting $SPCX @bread_ shared his thoughts: “And in that interim, you’re going to have all these people that are getting this money and they’re gonna go, ‘Oh my God,’ because human psychology, right? They saw their initial number. Their initial number was higher than it is today, and they’re going, ‘Oh my God, what if it doesn’t ever come back? What if it doesn’t ever come back and then I’m gonna lose this? I can’t lose this. This is my entire bloodline-changing money. I have to capture some of this.’ And they’re going to. I think I’m probably going to get into this as a short as soon as my current positions roll over.”