Rate hike odds jumped to 68% after Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole
@Polymarket's contract traded below 50% entering Thursday and closed near 68%. Warsh cited core PCE at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, both above the Fed's target.
Rate hike probabilities have shifted immensely, with expectations that rates remain the same at 10% through the EoY.
For the September meeting, odds shifted from 60% keep the rates unchanged to 60% at least one hike.
Rate hike odds were way too mispriced going into the speech but I’m still not fully convinced the Fed actually does anything.
Would Warsh get outvoted?