one of the coolest things with prediction markets is that by aggregating them you can create an index reflecting your own world view what zeit is doing here is building that personalized index for you based on a single prompt and soon you'll be able to long or short anyone's worldview forecasters will be the new celebrities

Getting a ton of DMs asking why the @ZEITFinance worldview engine is so effective at finding market correlations and building curated portfolios. We been cooking the pipeline for over a year with @bettercallsmo It comes down to separating probabilistic reasoning from execution: • Custom 1-year point-in-time data pipeline • Fine-tuned open-source LLM (verl post-training) • Convex optimization layer for execution Dropping a full breakdown of the pipeline soon. 🧵👇

Leopold's worldview was basically right. Only his execution was bad His basic thesis was : "Compute investment explodes. Energy becomes the bottleneck" It objectively played out very well, whatever happened to his fund. If you don't trust his management skills going forward we have a way to bet directly on the thesis I fed the Leopold AschenBrenner thesis to the @ZEITFinance wolrdview generator and it created this portfolio with +400% upside. > Finds a basket of aligned markets > Rank them based on alignment > Size according to liquidity and risk profile (small moonshots, bigger bonds) > Aggregates all this into an investable portfolio If you look at the actual composition of the portfolio it's pretty close to what I would have built manually, and I researched this subject a lot. I think it has good chances of taking #1# spot in the thesis leaderboard

Another Israeli soldier arrested for insider trading This time it's an Air Force major that got caught betting on strikes on Yemen and Iran. This has become a common occurrence in the Israeli army. So much that another suspect arrested in May defended himself by saying : "The entire Israel Air Force is involved in gambling." I wouldn't be surprised if it's close to the truth. 3 out of the 4 insider war related insider trading scandals I heard off were centered on Israeli soliders (exception being the Maduro capture incident) I love strike markets but I wouldn't recommend playing the Israel related ones. You are almost certainly up against insiders

Introducing Worldviews. The most direct instrument to take exposure to the future. Type what you believe will happen in plain English. We construct a synthetically balanced portfolio across prediction markets that precisely maps to your thesis. Trade entire narratives and see how competing worldviews price reality. Express your worldview today

WildBerries #1# biggest warehouse just destroyed by Ukraine ! This brings the total to 18/30 of WB's top 30 biggest warehouse in the country destroyed. + 3 badly damaged. Odds on the "Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027" market have pumped 2x on the news (10% -> 20%). It's counter intuitive but think it's actually a good time to buy some more NO and secure +23% return. here is why : - Ukraine has focused it's attacks on the biggest warehouses (easier juicier targets), but they still only about 20% of WB's total capacity. Hitting many smaller ones will be harder - Destroyed inventory belongs to sellers, not Wildberries. They conveniently update their ToS 1 week before the first attack to NOT compensate sellers for bombing related inventory loss - Wildberries is too big to fail. They employ too many people. Russia can never let them go bankrupt. The authorities and state linked banks (VTB, Sberbank) have already been discussing support measures like preferential loans and debt restructuring. So they won't go bankrupt anytime soon. I'm buying more NO with confidence

WildBerries #1# biggest warehouse just destroyed by Ukraine ! This brings the total to 18/30 of WB's top 30 biggest warehouse in the country destroyed. + 3 badly damaged. Odds on the "Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027" market have pumped 2x on the news (10% -> 20%). It's counter intuitive but think it's actually a good time to buy some more NO and secure +23% return. here is why : - Ukraine has focused it's attacks on the biggest warehouses (easier juicier targets), but they still only about 20% of WB's total capacity. Hitting many smaller ones will be harder - Destroyed inventory belongs to sellers, not Wildberries. They conveniently update their ToS 1 week before the first attack to NOT compensate sellers for bombing related inventory loss - Wildberries is too big to fail. They employ too many people. Russia can never let them go bankrupt. The authorities and state linked banks (VTB, Sberbank) have already been discussing support measures like preferential loans and debt restructuring. So they won't go bankrupt anytime soon. I'm buying more NO with confidence

It might actually be over for Polymarket. Unless they fix these 8 things immediately: First of all, this is not a FUD Post. We want @Polymarket to win! BUT: > Key talent churn (@mustafap0ly, @thejunior leaving; new leadership onboarding). > Kalshi is aggressively eating market share. > Emerging competition everywhere, with HIP-4 potentially making Hyperliquid a major distribution threat. > Non-stop badge drama and $POLY farming fatigue. But actually: Polymarket won culture. It made prediction markets the internet’s primary real-time news engine. AND Engineering got much better. The platform is stable; DeFi on Scale - works! People criticize it because they want it to win. But to survive the next cycle and become serious financial infrastructure, Polymarket needs to graduate from social-discretion dynamics to institutional-grade execution. Here is the 8-point blueprint: 1. Fix Settlement & UMA Manipulation A market cannot become core financial infrastructure if the oracle is easier to manipulate than the order book. End the proxy-wallet games, cartel voting, and capital-weighted distortion. Explore staked random-resolver consensus or deterministic, multi-LLM structured evidence aggregation. 2. Standardize Market Wording Pre-Launch Resolution drama this year was at its peak. Enforce strict source hierarchies, predefined edge cases, and mandatory adversarial review periods before size enters. Zero retroactive interpretations. No Discord court, no silent rule tweaks, no "creator intent" overrides. 3. Depoliticize the Badge System Opacity creates the perception of favoritism. Badges must reflect verifiable on-chain metrics: trading volume, product usage, or formal commercial partnerships. Publish qualification criteria, grants, and removals publicly. Badges should signal objective reputation, not insider access. 4. End the $POLY / Token Ambiguity Perpetual ambiguity burns community goodwill. Either explicitly rule out a token forever, or ship a transparent points architecture (like Hyperliquid). Define the math, publish anti-sybil rules, show user scores on-chain, and eliminate shadow-farming advantages for insiders. 5. Clarify the Offshore vs. Regulated Strategy Builders and liquidity providers cannot build on shifting sands. Define the long-term relationship between Polymarket Global and regulated domestic rails. Clarify API parity, liquidity cross-collateralization, and account migration paths. 6. Treat Builders as Distribution Reduce fees for builders, almost impossible to build anything profitable on top of that fee structure. Find a way to better incentivize builders. 7. Canonical Communications A multi-billion dollar platform cannot communicate via scattered replies, private Telegram chats, and leaks. Establish a single source of truth for API changes, resolution incidents, and governance decisions. When something breaks, publish a structured postmortem: root cause, impact, and prevention steps. 8. Kill Discretion This is the umbrella rule. Wherever discretion exists, corruption or favoritism will be assumed. Replace backroom decisions with legible, objective, code-enforced rules. Make settlement tamper-proof, incentives mathematical, and participation permissionless. Polymarket won the mindshare. Now it has to win the trust. Fix the settlement layer, eliminate arbitrary discretion, and treat builders like partners. That is how we win!

Up +17.2% in 2 months, betting on geopolitics on Polymarket. That is 61% APY! 🚀 For every $WAR holder there, thank you for your trust and support! I’ve never considered myself a traditional market trader. But somehow, these bets have outperformed both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500! My focus has been entirely on geopolitics. I'm obsessed with it because, at the end of the day, it’s what actually moves the world. Prediction markets give you an honest mirror. You get to test your worldview in real-time with actual skin in the game. No LARP, no hot takes with zero accountability. Just putting your money where your mouth is. the best part of doing this through ZEIT Finance is that anyone can participate right alongside me. Usually in crypto, when someone shares a trade or call, you’re either getting dumped on or subsidizing their entry. I wanted zero part in that dynamic. If you believe in my read on geopolitics, you can trade alongside me. Same execution, zero front-running, no exit liquidity games. And the alignment is simple: I take a 20% performance fee only, and only if I actually make you money. If you don't profit, I don't earn. It’s been a great ride so far, but it's just the beginning!

We could lose whole market categories if this goes through ! Flightaware is suing Kalshi over it's use of their public API for resolution. this is a huge problem. Kalshi uses Flightaware public API as the resolution source for their flight cancellation markets. Flightaware is suing them saying that they didn't explicitly allow that use. If they win, it means that using an external API for market resolution becomes a legal risk A ton of markets actually rely on some third party API that definitely didn't give explicit consent to be used for betting. Just a few examples : Strait of Hormuz markets - Portwatch Ukraine map markets - ISW map Weather Markets - Weather Underground station data Earthquakes - USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Commodity prices - CME Group If Kalshi loses this lawsuit we are very likely to see all of those shut down. We can't afford to be sectarians, we must all support @kalshi on this one

We could lose whole market categories if this goes through ! Flightaware is suing Kalshi over it's use of their public API for resolution. this is a huge problem. Kalshi uses Flightaware public API as the resolution source for their flight cancellation markets. Flightaware is suing them saying that they didn't explicitly allow that use. If they win, it means that using an external API for market resolution becomes a legal risk A ton of markets actually rely on some third party API that definitely didn't give explicit consent to be used for betting. Just a few examples : Strait of Hormuz markets - Portwatch Ukraine map markets - ISW map Weather Markets - Weather Underground station data Earthquakes - USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Commodity prices - CME Group If Kalshi loses this lawsuit we are very likely to see all of those shut down. We can't afford to be sectarians, we must all support @kalshi on this one

Up +17.2% in 2 months, betting on geopolitics on Polymarket. That is 61% APY! 🚀 For every $WAR holder there, thank you for your trust and support! I’ve never considered myself a traditional market trader. But somehow, these bets have outperformed both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500! My focus has been entirely on geopolitics. I'm obsessed with it because, at the end of the day, it’s what actually moves the world. Prediction markets give you an honest mirror. You get to test your worldview in real-time with actual skin in the game. No LARP, no hot takes with zero accountability. Just putting your money where your mouth is. the best part of doing this through ZEIT Finance is that anyone can participate right alongside me. Usually in crypto, when someone shares a trade or call, you’re either getting dumped on or subsidizing their entry. I wanted zero part in that dynamic. If you believe in my read on geopolitics, you can trade alongside me. Same execution, zero front-running, no exit liquidity games. And the alignment is simple: I take a 20% performance fee only, and only if I actually make you money. If you don't profit, I don't earn. It’s been a great ride so far, but it's just the beginning!

Absolutely INSANE rollecoaster on the Ronaldo Cry market ! > Portugal loses > Ronaldo walks out of the field with a poker face *odds drop from 80% to 13%* > camera pans to him again, he's crying *odds skyrocket to a peak of 96%* > traders realize you can't see tears in the clip, which could make it a NO by the rules *odd drop to 34%* --> You are here. There is now an ongoing search for Christiano's tear. Traders a scrutinizing every angle of every camera to find the evidence that might resolve this market