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Aaron
@Aaronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst | Investor Based in Taiwan.
290 Following    9.8K Followers
huh? _ JPM: Given recent positive commentary from pure design-service vendorssuch as GUC and Alchip, there has been some concern in the market that $GOOGL TPUv10 will come to a more advanced CoT model, where MediaTek will lose significant $ content perChip, vs. v9 Humufish. First, the project is still in RFQ stage, implying that severalcompeting proposals are being floated, and should see a conclusion by end 2026. Our checks indicate that the business model for v10 Icefish is likely to remain largely similarto the TPUv9 Humufish, with High-Speed Serdes, I/O Dies and Die-to-Die interconnectIP, as well as packaging design and full-chip implementation coming from MediaTek, while the Compute die design is likely to be largely handled by Google’s in-house designteam. Only variable is likely to be for the Compute die back-end design, which may beoutsourced to pure design-service vendors like Alchip / GUC for certain SKUs, althoughthis is not yet crystallized based on our checks. All said, we believe that MediaTek’s dollar content per chip is likely to still rise modestly in v10, with the chance to secure majority market share – implying overall revenues still growing materially from the v9 generation.
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So true. It’s wild how the market panics over minor timeline shifts, ignoring the engineering realities. When $NVDA is inventing the state of the art and constantly redrawing the boundaries, execution hurdles are just part of the process.
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Now supply/ demand gap is larger and larger. _ MS: we continue to see increasing demand, causing further supply constraints and a widening supply/ demand gap. Recent checks indicate that ABF undersupply gap would widen to 22% by 2030 (vs 15% previously), which is putting upward pressure on pricing and margins for the substrate suppliers. Increasing constraints are also driving a broadening out of the supply ecosystem: As demand gets stronger, we are seeing end-customers choosing to allocate more demand to smaller scale suppliers, as well as customers choosing to work with new entrants. This is why our recent checks indicate that Kinsus is working on more different kinds of substrates for Nvidia, and ZDT is also working on qualification for future TPU substrates (in addition to being a key substrate supplier for China AI chips). We believe this is further evidence that customers are concerned about supply tightness and are finding different solutions to ensure business continuity
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