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Abby
@Abbyxvx87
Former PE research analyst Semis AI infra power & whatever breaks next I probably have too many tabs open😮‍💨
Joined June 2013
619 Following    3.2K Followers
My worry on $CRWV has moved to the data center landlords behind it. CoreWeave has to pay the lenders and pay the building rent. Some projects use that rent to pay the construction loan. Tenant credit feeds into the landlords financing. Some bonds are already yielding over 15%. That isnt the cost on every facility. It does make the market reprice. What I worry about is pressure moving from tenant to landlord, then into the next project financing. AI expansion gets more expensive. WeWork filed for protection in November 2023. Planned to walk 69 North American leases. Those leases sat on about $1.85B of CMBS exposure. I still remember how that hit. Put it back on CRWV. Size the risk one project at a time. Rent coverage, project leverage. Im still watching, not buying. The names I still like in this lane are $IREN and $NBIS. IREN latest market cap I can check is about $12B. Book has $7.62B of cash. Strip the $1.724B of restricted cash. Leaves $5.9B. For a company buying GPUs and building AI data centers at scale, cash means procurement and construction dont have to lean fully on the short-term market. Especially when the worry is neocloud financing cost going up. That cash lowers the near-term pressure. At the end of June, IREN disclosed about $13.81B of capital commitments. Well above the unrestricted cash. That $5.9B is likely sitting for the next build. In August the company said 2026 capacity lines up with about $4B of contracted ARR. Commercialization has moved. From an investing view, the $5.9B raises IRENs ability to take a hit. It doesnt by itself prove the stock is cheap. If IREN keeps delivering the contracts, keeps financing cost in check, and the cash from the compute covers the next spend, a market cap around $12B starts to look attractive. I think IREN has done a solid job.
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