Adam Livingston(@AdamBLiv):Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched: ETFs absorbed $51.3B Strategy alone deployed $58.0B Stablecoin supply expanded $171.4B But their weekly correlations with Bitcoin returns were: ETFs: 0.64 Stablecoins: 0.31 Strategy: 0.03 Capital size ≠ price impact. Bitcoin has the same supply curve, but it no longer has the same buyer. Even more interesting is that ETF flows’ correlation with the following week’s Bitcoin return collapses from 0.64 to 0.08. ETF flows are extremely useful for identifying the buyer moving price right now, but they are nearly useless as a standalone prediction of what happens next. And every major impulse is currently weakening: ETF flows, 30D: −$107M Stablecoin supply: −$5.6B Strategy purchases: −$216M Binance BTC open interest: −0.4% We have four liquidity channels retreating simultaneously:

2026.07.30 01:41

Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched: ETFs absorbed $51.3B Strategy alone deployed $58.0B Stablecoin supply expanded $171.4B But their weekly correlations with Bitcoin returns were: ETFs: 0.64 Stablecoins: 0.31 Strategy: 0.03 Capital size ≠ price impact. Bitcoin has the same supply curve, but it no longer has the same buyer. Even more interesting is that ETF flows’ correlation with the following week’s Bitcoin return collapses from 0.64 to 0.08. ETF flows are extremely useful for identifying the buyer moving price right now, but they are nearly useless as a standalone prediction of what happens next. And every major impulse is currently weakening: ETF flows, 30D: −$107M Stablecoin supply: −$5.6B Strategy purchases: −$216M Binance BTC open interest: −0.4% We have four liquidity channels retreating simultaneously: