$25 A DAY: BITCOIN OR ASST FOR FIVE YEARS?
I modeled 1,825 daily purchases totaling $45,625.
The assumptions:
Bitcoin rises from $63,561 to $500,000
ASST holds 20,167 BTC throughout
ASST buys and sells zero Bitcoin
$782.95 million of preferred stock costs 13% annually
Common shares are issued to fund those dividends
ASST begins at $12.42 and 1.5121× CEBE mNAV
Here is the payoff.
BITCOIN
The DCA accumulates 0.215795 BTC at an average cost of $211,427.
Final value: $107,898
Profit: $62,273
Return: +136%
Money multiple: 2.36×
ASST AT 1.0× mNAV - mNAV collapses to 1.0
ASST finishes at $98.98.
The DCA accumulates 915.02 shares worth:
$90,569
Profit: $44,944
Return: +99%
Money multiple: 1.99×
Bitcoin wins by $17,329.
ASST AT 1.5121× mNAV - stays the same
ASST finishes at $151.68.
The DCA accumulates 805.58 shares worth:
$122,193
Profit: $76,568
Return: +168%
Money multiple: 2.68×
ASST beats Bitcoin by $14,295, or 13.3%.
ASST AT 2.0× mNAV - mNAV goes up
ASST finishes at $202.38.
The DCA accumulates 734.87 shares worth:
$148,722
Profit: $103,097
Return: +226%
Money multiple: 3.26×
ASST beats Bitcoin by $40,825, or 37.8%.
The breakeven is approximately 1.281× terminal mNAV.
Below that multiple, Bitcoin wins.
Above it, ASST wins.
ASST never acquires another coin in this model, yet its CEBE sats per share still rise from 12,922 to roughly 19,800–20,238.
That makes mNAV matter twice.
It determines the terminal valuation, and it determines how many shares ASST must issue along the way to raise the same number of dollars.
At 1.0×, dilution wins.
Above roughly 1.281×, the residual balance-sheet leverage wins.
Bitcoin is the cleaner asset.
ASST is the wager that Bitcoin reaches $500,000 before the capital structure eats the amplification.
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