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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Vice President, Investments @Strive Christ. Family. Bitcoin. In that order.
Joined January 2025
299 Following    88.9K Followers
ASST's +120% Rally - EXPLAINED! ASST more than doubled while its modeled Bitcoin amplification FELL. I pulled apart the rally. The timing is the part that deserves attention. August 14 → September 4, 2026: Bitcoin: $63,062 → $79,747. +26.5%. ASST: $12.315 → $27.14. +120.4%. Using Strive’s dated disclosures, treasury-only CEBE NAV per common share rose from $8.09 to $12.73. That is 57.3% more modeled equity backing per share. The market then increased the price it paid for each dollar of that backing: 1.52× NAV → 2.13× NAV. A 40.1% expansion in the multiple. 1.5728 × 1.4012 = 2.2038. That reconciles the 120.4% rally. Now split the period. August 14–21: Bitcoin +24.3%. ASST +47.9%. Treasury NAV/share +47.0%. Valuation multiple +0.7%. The opening leg was overwhelmingly growth in the treasury residual. August 21–September 4: Bitcoin +1.8%. ASST +49.0%. Treasury NAV/share +7.0%. Valuation multiple +39.2%. The final two weeks were a substantial rerating. And yes, the ledger includes the other side of the financing... the modeled SATA claim rose from $783.0 million to $999.5 million, and the common share count grew 10.3%. Preferred financing has a claim. Common financing has a denominator. Both belong in the math. Freeze the opening valuation multiple and the ending treasury balance sheet reconstructs $19.37 per ASST share... still 57.3% above the starting price. Modeled Bitcoin amplification declined from 1.83× to 1.62×. Bitcoin appreciation itself mechanically reduces this ratio. At a richer premium to the residual, the same dollar of common financing requires fewer new shares. If Strive can execute accretive issuance, some of that market premium can become additional residual value per share. The premium can also compress. The next question is how much of that richer valuation Strive can convert into lasting residual NAV-per-share growth:
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