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Alex
@AlexanderKim120
South Korea FICC manager with structured products(IR, Credit, FX, and Commodities) & Prop trading(cross-asset view)
Joined February 2023
314 Following    5.1K Followers
In fact, nothing highly unusual was found in the QRA. The coupon increases, which had drawn everyone's attention, naturally did not take place, and as expected, the phrasing in the guidance was changed from "for at least the next several quarters" to "for the next several quarters." In other words, the phrase "at least" was removed, which was anticipated this time around. Two additional phrases were added:"As part of that process, Treasury will engage with a variety of market participants to better understand evolving Treasury supply and demand dynamics," and "In considering any changes, Treasury will be guided by the objective of financing the government at the lowest cost over time." What particularly catches the eye is "variety of market participants." Looking back, this expression was previously used during the TIPS increase in November 2020 and the coupon cuts in November 2021. Considering that it was used in 2021 when the 7Y and 20Y were reduced relatively more heavily, we can see that the phrase "variety of market participants" actually hints at decisions regarding distribution across issuance tenors and shifts in that distribution. The market was already somewhat aware of these changes in tenor distribution. Aside from that, the mention of a "considerable debate" regarding the FY27 increases in the TBAC Reports stands out. I still believe this noise will likely be sorted out in the upcoming QRA next January and ultimately put into action around the second quarter.
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