New preprint from @lightningrodai! We trained AI to predict clinical events — ICU transfers, new diagnoses, complications, procedures, ventilation, mortality — directly from raw clinical notes. No labeled data required – Foresight Learning infers outcomes from what happens later in patient records. Using Tinker from @thinkymachines , we trained a lightweight adapter on GPT-OSS-120B, resulting in a specialized predictor that runs on a single GPU. Results: 🎯 ~70% lower calibration error 📈 Brier skill score: ~0% → 27% 🧠 84% win-rate vs the base model in blind reasoning review 🥇 Slightly better Brier than GPT-5, despite being a fraction of the size Hospitals and specialty clinics often treat unique patient populations that out-of-the-box models don't have training data for. This makes it possible to build frontier-quality predictors for highly specific patient groups, with nothing but raw clinical records. Congrats to the team — @indiequant @KSkotheim64001 🙌 Full paper 👇