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Balder
@Balder13946731
Quant/AI Trader | Substack: | Our free Community | Not Financial Advice
1.2K Following    36.8K Followers
$NET is up more than 10% today as $META Muse momentum spreads into the infrastructure that carries AI agent traffic across web. If millions of agents start using cloud based computers to search shop and book for users then Cloudflare gets more traffic to route secure/optimize and we're already seeing how non human traffic already crossed 50% of its network in Q2.
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Yesterday's verdict — Mon Jul 27 🐲 🟢 GREEN night. Top-5 book +1.07% (4/5 green). Best call: QBTS PUT +9.00%. We grade every night in the open. Board's on Substack (link in bio). $QBTS #Stocks# #Trading#
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🌙 Tonight's thesis — picks frozen Monday Jul 27 The index frame: SPX band 7,371–7,421, lean CALLS (skew +0.08) — the tape earns a bullish tilt. Fed-liquidity read: neutral (z -0.4, 20d -0.0). Standing back from: Hyperscalers (-4.3%/5d), Software (-2.4%/5d), Power / DC Infra (-2.2%/5d) — longs there are discounted until the 5-day trend itself recovers (a one-day pause is a dead-cat, the worst state in our backtest). The top of the book, and why: - CVX CALL (risk-adj vote +1.4) — Net edge here — running into CVX's upcoming catalyst (buy-the-rumor), though Energy is soft. (also: MACD) - MCD PUT (risk-adj vote -1.1) — Net edge here — fading MCD's momentum (though Defensive is bid today). (also: Wall Position) - NFLX CALL (risk-adj vote +1.1) — Net edge here — running into NFLX's upcoming catalyst (buy-the-rumor), as money rotates into Growth Tech. (also: 3-Day Up Streak) - BRK-B CALL (risk-adj vote +1.0) — Net edge here — running into BRK-B's upcoming catalyst (buy-the-rumor). (also: Pre-Event Run-up) Risk posture: 33 calls / 35 puts screened (puts carry a ×1.25 evidence bar — the tape drifts up). Every vote here is risk-adjusted (σ+β), liquidity-taxed, factor-capped at 3 per correlated complex, and stripped of earnings coin-flips. High conviction means diverse agreement per unit of risk, not loudness. The trade: buy ~3:50 PM ET, sell ~9:40 AM ET. 📋 The full board — 33 bet-up / 35 bet-down, ranked in the card 🐲 $SPX #Stocks# #OptionsTrading#
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🔮 Earnings Radar — $GLW reports tomorrow morning 📊 Our call: COIN-FLIP — no directional edge; options price a ±11.5% move. (implied vs its last 8 earnings prints in the card 👇) 🧮 Direction model: UP 63% (backtested 426 prints — informational, the move itself is a ±5% coin). ⚖️ Peer read: INTC, NOK disappointed (-4.5%) — the bar is RESET lower; a decent print gets rewarded more. #Earnings# #Options#
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🔮 Earnings Radar — $BA reports tomorrow morning 📊 Our call: lean UP — we expect BA to pop. P(up) ~48%, expected move ±4.0% (options imply ±5.4%). (implied vs its last 8 earnings prints in the card 👇) 🧮 Direction model: UP 51% (backtested 426 prints — informational, the move itself is a ±5% coin). #Earnings# #Options#
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China’s dual shock just nuked global semis. Homegrown DUV lithography machines entering mass production + CXMT’s insane IPO debut (up ~466%, now China’s most valuable company). Monday bloodbath: $NVDA -5% $ASML -7% $TSM -3% $SKHY -9% Export controls just got a lot less effective. 👀🔥
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*ASML FALLS 6.4% TO DAY'S LOW ON REPORT CHINA STARTS DUV OUTPUT
Most French people have no idea that French mathematics is actually better than Chinese, American, or any other country’s on Earth.