See what happened here? They set the quota on hybrids only at 350,000 made in China and the next next day BYD announces hiring plans in Europe. This means there is no actual plan to deal with China or thinking about the second order effects

There is a clear asymmetry at play. The long term correlation is very low. What do I mean? Look at right side of the graph: the currency declined and exports grew above trend. That makes sense and it's observable. Now look at the left side: the currency grew significantly more expensive but exports kept growing on trend. This tells is two key things. First, there is a clear asymmetry in how Chinese trade responds to changes in the value of the RMB. Just because exports increase when the currency declined, do not expect exports to decline (or though not pictured here imports to increase). Second, there are clearly missing variables that would help explain why we are seeing the results we are seeing. As a simple example, the mass of Chinese over capacity is playing a significant role in boosting exports. This concept would be especially true considering imports. In short, do not expect a symmetric bounce in imports

I worked for Peking University for a decade when China was loudly touting it desire to get more Chinese back to China. Let me tell you the dirty secret: Almost none of the returning Chinese who I counted as friends said or indicated them returning to China had anything to do with geopolitics. A spouse. Simply returning back home. An aging parent. The vast majority of time people moved back to China had zero to do with global politics, US politics, and everything to do with just what they wanted to do in life. I'm very sorry to disappoint whatever narrative you have