$BTC tops
@JPMorganAM 's long-term return forecasts at 10% a year, ahead of US stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
A modest call for an asset that compounded at ~63% a year over the past decade and ~42% over the past three. JPM is taking the conservative route.
Even so, JPM's 55% vol assumption implies a Sharpe of ~0.32, matching US large caps. And realized vol has already fallen from ~74% (10Y) to ~50% (3Y). At 42% vol and a 13% CAGR, the Sharpe rises to ~0.45.
Bitcoin isn't just a high-return asset anymore. It's becoming a better risk-adjusted one.