Register and share your invite link to earn from video plays and referrals.

Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Writes on sovereign debt, trade, fx reserves and capital flows.
1.1K Following    154.7K Followers
Adam Tooze, as provocative and insightful as usual "What China is delivering in the 2020s is an industrial policy shock of global scale" 1/
The case for a "gold-adjusted" Chinese trade and current account surplus. A new blog 1/
🇪🇺🇨🇳 Same shift in value terms, using Chinese data: Annualized, the EU27 moved from a >$25bn surplus in mid-2021 to a ~$20bn deficit in mid-2026. Monthly, China first posted a surplus in Jan 2024, >$1bn in Aug 2025 and >$2bn in Apr 2026.
Show more
Except that is not what is happening between China and Europe. This isn't a case of intensified intra-industry trade. France exporting Renaults for German Mercedes. China is exporting more, but not importing more -- globally, and vis a vis Europe
Show more
Calls himself an economist and does not get the reference. OK, let me spell it out. Maybe it'll be useful to others. Before Krugman and Helpman, the theory of comparative advantage predicted that countries should specialize in different products. But the reality was that, within the transatlantic core of the world economy, countries were making the same thing like cars and tvs. Krugman and Helpmen resolved this puzzle by showing how product differentiation meant that countries could make similar products and still conduct a massive amount of trade. China is now making similar things as the AEs because China has successfully climbed the ladder. This is exactly what modern trade theory would lead you to expect.
Show more
Yen is falling v the dollar I think ... Someone should do an essay comparing the trajectories of US and Japanese (net) public debt, and the forward looking forecasts of Japan's primary balance v that of the US ... I would believe a fiscal story for JPY/ KRW a bit more!
Show more
How can you explain the continuously falling Yen even though Japan's interest rates are rising? The explanation is that Japan's shadow yield - the yield markets require to compensate them for the risk of a debt crisis - is rising faster than actual yields.
Show more
Martin Wolf: "We are living in a mercantilist era. This threatens both the stability of the world economy and relations among great powers." Just 3-4 years ago this would have still been considered an outrageous statement. It shows the extent to which the global trading system has come under pressure in the past 10-15 years.
Show more
The euro area's "real" trade balance in autos with China -- the numbers of cars exported v the number of cars imported. Just a massive swing. And the shock isn't over. No signs it is self correcting
Show more
The real story in the Chinese data was that Chinese exporters started to move funds onshore, hence the rise in "Settlement", and that led to an increase in outflows via the state banks (most of the bond outflow is from the banks) 3/
Show more
A reminder -- whenever the MoF sells dollar it bought for 80 yen for 155-160 yen, it books a massive profit and reduces Japan's gross debt significantly ... "spending reserves" is a common frame for intervention, but it misses something in Japan's case ...
Show more
China's auto sector is a near-perfect metaphor for China's economy -- domestic demand is down, quite significantly. But exports are on a rocket ship up -- vehicle exports should come close to reaching 12m this year, car exports 10-11m 1/
Show more