I know shilling someone’s stuff can rub ppl the wrong way, but this is the first time ever doing this bc it’s genuinely that good. I’ve been tracking his flow for quite a while now and this guy is fk great trader. Unlike the sea of frauds and grifters on this app, his transparency is 100% legit. Obviously he’s human—takes bad beats and gets trades wrong like anyone else. But he owns his Ls without shame and constantly iterates to get better. I have massive respect for his technical framework and macro commentary. Getting a front seat to an active hf guy's perspective for zero dollars is alpha. It’s completely free. I rate the guy highly but nozero financial incentives or skin in the game here. Just an honest shoutout. Give his Substack a follow.

Mr. President, I’ve figured out a way to screw over Warsh without openly blasting him—and completely wipe out the $TLT bros while you're at it. Bump the $5,000 stimmy checks to $50,000! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Global CTA positioning... Seeing some heavily lopsided positioning across a few assets heading into FOMC. Expecting brutal intraday vol—keep your heads on a swivel for nasty whipsaws. #oott# $TLT $spy

Hands down one of the greatest dark memes I’ve seen in my entire career. I know folks on the commodity desk already knows how this math works, but just for the broader timeline and the math-challenged folks out there... The Taylor Rule is traditionally used to calculate a central bank’s optimal policy rate:  i = r* + p* + 1.5(p - p*) + 0.5(y - y*) (i = nominal rate, r* = neutral rate, p* = 2% target, p - p* = inflation gap, y - y* = output gap). Dr. Ghalibaf basically jammed two brand new variables into this classic framework, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb. He's flexing that global CPI and terminal rates are dictated by their maritime choke points... Honestly crown the man Meme King already. And the wild part? He’s not even lying. Does today's Fed decision even matter in the grand scheme? Give it a few days, and we’ll all be recalibrating the next FOMC print purely around energy prices—which ironically are being priced by Tehran and the Houthis. The guy isn't wrong. Welcome to the new macro regime. #oott# #iran#

The 30+ page WNA report is finally here. It contains everything you would want to know about the developments in the sector, price action, positioning and conversations with fuel buyers, traders, financial entities, producers and more 🗞️ All right here ⤵️

China: "Landed cost? Refining crack? Don't know, don't care. Beijing said run, so I'm maxing out throughput like a madman. Just give me the damn barrels!" Btw US-China summit is just around the corner... Just saying... #oott# #china#

One silver lining for global energy mkt, Saudi exports out of Yanbu were already running well below peak print anyway. A week ago, I flagged the dislocation—Aramco was ramping liftings out of Ras Tanura on the Gulf side, when logic dictated rerouting heavy volume through Yanbu instead. It didn't make much sense back then, but the puzzle pieces are finally clicking together. If they really drew up this diversification strategy in advance anticipating Red Sea geopolitical risks, I have to say it is truly phenomenal. Not on Aramco’s payroll here. But call it dumb luck or a blind squirrel finding a nut, the timing was undeniably spot on. On a total net export basis, this will cushion the blow from the E/W pipeline hit. Oh and the strait shuttlers are going to feast on this. With the tonnage list clamping shut and the Saudis throwing barrels into the mix, that's just a tidal wave of fresh cargoes to lift. Loading activity on the Saudi east coast looks very busy again today. That said still a massive wildcard... if Iran follows Houthi footsteps and actually tightens the chokehold on the SoH...? Then Saudi... best of luck! Or they could just pull a UAE—fly a cargo plane stacked with hard cash to Tehran and beg the IRGC for mercy! 😘 #oott# #iran#

Persian Gulf oil flows... Imo numbers look pretty damn close to the ground truth, and sharp tanker trackers are printing similar prints. Though obviously desks might have to recalibrate Yanbu runs in the models pretty soon :) #oott# #iran#

First zero pushback on China finished product demand being cooked. That’s undisputed market reality, whether you look at transport burn or macro proxies. Chinese oil demand is genuinely soft and the broader macro picture is flatlining. Calling domestic demand bearish is the easiest consensus on the street. What does that 5mb/d print actually represent? Price-driven demand destruction, legacy barrels displaced by NEVs, aggressive run cuts, zeroed out SPR bids and ultimately waterborne crude imports rolling over hard. Lumping that all together into a 5mb/d headline makes sense on paper. But as solid analysts have flagged, that entire 5mb/d delta isn’t structural, permanent destruction(yeah i know a slice of that baseline is never coming back post-shock). Which tees up the question: "If domestic demand is dead in the water, why did a sidelined China inevitably have to step back into the prompt market?" That’s the core thesis to solve. Let’s not regurgitate the product export quota narrative. An ~800kb/d G2G allocation to the SOEs doesn't move the needle structurally. And blown out freight rates and physical diffs inflated landing costs—refining cracks aren’t nearly as pristine as paper margins imply. Here’s my fundamental read: no matter how anemic domestic demand looked, stabilizing finished product tanks at these depressed utilization rates was physically impossible. They drew down product inventories—especially the petchem complex—way more aggressively than consensus modeled. Refiners were backed into a corner where they had to ramp runs, forcing Beijing to give the green light to defend absolute inventory floors. This wasn’t 5mb/d of structural demand destruction—it was 5mb/d of artificial "crude" demand suppression. And that suppression was never a forever trade; it was subsidized by cannibalizing downstream tanks. Now it’s time to face physical reality. That’s my bottom line. Again not fighting the consensus on weak domestic demand. But even against a bearish macro backdrop, China couldn't shoulder the burden of subsidizing global price suppression indefinitely. #oott# #iran# #china#

My last tweet caught unprompted traction—and cue the usual bad faith replies in the mentions—but Saudi Energy Ministry just confirmed the kinetic Houthi hit. Narrative pivot. it's no longer if, it's strictly the outage duration. It appears this was a localized hit on a pump station rather than a sweeping strike spanning hundreds of kilometers. Damage assessment at the pad aside, I’m fading the idea that this flow impairment drags out. As far as I know, there are several contingency plays for such events and I spoke with midstream engineers today. Here are the primary workarounds: 1) Heavily injecting Drag Reducing Agents(DRA). This is one of the fastest emergency levers available. At the fully operational pump station immediately upstream of the damaged site, operators inject large volumes of DRA—specialized polymer chemical additives. This kills boundary layer turbulence inside the pipe, collapsing frictional head loss. Less frictional drag means the upstream head pushes barrels significantly further down the line. It's the standard emergency lever to claw back 10% to 40%+ of lost nameplate flow almost immediately without laying an inch of steel. 2) Hydraulic bypass & pressure rebalancing. Isolate the fried booster and redline the surrounding stations. Upstream station pegs its discharge pressure right against the pipe's MAOP ceiling. Simultaneously the downstream station dials down its suction pressure floor to the absolute limit. Blowing out that delta-P forces the crude across the dead zone via pure brute-force hydraulics. 3) Tactical hardware deployments. Aramco can roll out trailer-mounted mobile pump skids (diesel/gas turbine-driven) straight to the site to patch the lost pressure head. Alternatively close the ESDVs, isolate the manifold and crack the station bypass loop to free-flow barrels around the blast zone. If there are looped parallel segments or pipeline interties nearby, they can divert batches around the pinch point. 4) Lastly, adjusting crude viscosity—such as blending lower-viscosity crudes or condensates—is technically a method, but Saudi Arabia is not a light crude/condensate powerhouse, and maintaining crude quality integrity makes this practically unviable, so let's write that off. Even running every emergency trick, some capacity haircut is baked in. Terminal hubs and refiners at Yanbu will just burn through regional storage buffers to bridge the delta while crews turn wrenches. In conclusion, provided there are no follow-up attacks, these stopgap measures should preserve substantial throughput while repair crews work around the clock. The Saudis are about as prepared for this specific operational headache as anyone can be. The binary risk is follow-up kinetic strikes. If not, this won't morph into a full-blown physical catastrophe. But as we all know, E/W pipeline aside global macro crude setup is already... #oott# #iran#

I looked up Sentinel-3 satellite imagery for cross-validation. ESA also runs the Sentinel-3. While Sentinel-2 is essentially just a single high-res multispectral optical payload (MSI), Sentinel-3 packs a whole suite of sensors; optical (OLCI), precision thermal radiometry (SLSTR), and radar altimetry (SRAL). The spatial resolution gets chopped hard versus Sentinel-2 and the swath is huge, but it's more than sharp enough to flag severe thermal anomalies across open desert scrub. Breaking down the frames. OLCI is the familiar optical sensor. Pulled the OLCI L1B baseline imagery and ran the Highlight Optimized Natural Color processing layer to keep the blown out white pixels from clipping over high-albedo terrain. Then you have SLSTR L1B—provides the baseline thermal infrared and optical observations. It is used to verify sea/land surface radiant temperatures and active fire pixels. I selected the F1 Brightness Temperature layer, a dedicated mid-wave/thermal infrared band designed specifically for active fires (such as wildfires and gas flares). The delta between yesterday's pass and today is night and day. Again: zero interest in feeding the toxic bull/bear crossfire. Just sharing OSINT observations through open source feeds. #oott# #iran#

Looks like the Houthis might have actually scored a direct hit on the E/W pipeline. Confidence flag is tagged at maximum, and FRP printing above 70 MW blows way past conventional fire(~30 MW). FRP >70 MW scream high-pressure crude rupture and blowout conflagration. Brightness is literally maxing out and clipping the saturation cap on the VIIRS I4 band. Cross-referencing the delta between VIIRS and MODIS orbital passes, FRP anomaly printed 60+ MW for an 8 hour duration minimum. A garden-variety valve leak or routine gas venting simply cannot sustain that burn duration or heat signature. Faded the controlled burn or flare stack hypothesis too. Pump stations sit dozens of clicks apart on the ROW, but these heat anomalies are tightly clustered along a sub-10km stretch. No normal maintenance operation or controlled burn is conducted on such a massive scale simultaneously across multiple points spaced just kilometers apart along the pipeline route. Something definitely went down. #oott# #iran#

Dirty tanker rates are going to tag Mars before Elon’s Starship ever does. Freight rates are going completely parabolic. That makes me wonder... Between US refiners and shipowners, who is making "more money than God"—or is it both? Asking for a friend :) #oott# #iran#

Hmm... looks weird here... A Saudi VLCC caught a hit last week and the Saudis practically killed their OSP. We’ve got vessels from Sidi Kerir to South Korea and consensus on was Aramco would reroute flows and prioritize Yanbu. Yet looking at today’s feed, the Saudis are still active inside the Persian Gulf. Ju'aymah actually looks busier on the stems than before the strike. Are the Saudis really that confident pushing tonnage through Hormuz? Or is there an unspoken bet that the physical risk cools off shortly? Can't quite square the circle yet but it smells funky. Prioritizing Yanbu is the textbook operational move here... Anyone got color on this? #oott# #iran#

Been long Copper since 2023. Not naive enough to expect up-only in a straight line, but the macro thesis is still screaming bull. S&P Global dropped some great charts, so let’s strip away the noise and run through the structural supply: 1) The tier-1 discovery pipeline is in a total desert. Down from 714.8Mt in the ‘90s to a pathetic 8.7Mt over 2020–2025. Mega discoveries are basically extinct. 2) Capex burns are back up past $3B annually on exploration, yet the hit rate is completely cooked—netting a measly 0-2 discoveries a year. Trash ROIC... 3) Discovery cost per tonne went from ~$10 in the ‘90s to an eye watering $1,000–$2,600+ print today. Not a temporary blip; it’s a secular blowout in finding costs. 4) Gone are the days of unlocking multi tens of million monsters like Collahuasi or Pebble. Today’s wins are 1–2Mt crumbs that don't move the global balance needle. 5) More than half (55%) of cumulative reserves are concentrated in South America, while Africa—such as the DRC—is gradually taking up a larger share. South America has recently slipped into operational and production slumps, and Africa continues to suffer from political instability. 6) Roughly 500Mt of identified reserves have been rotting in prefeasibility purgatory for decades. Permitting hell, eco-lawfare, and zero IRR. Bless the regulators and green grifters for choking. 7) C-suites are terrified of greenfield risk. They’ve completely castrated wildcat budgets to hide inside safe brownfield pit extensions. Structural consequence. Zero chance of hitting a generational tier-1 asset. 8) Copper mining typically takes over 15-20 years from discovery to actual commercial production (operational), the current exploration slump translates directly into a future production cliff. This is an undeniable fact. 9) Megawatt power grids, EV buildouts, and AI data centers are devouring physical units, while the project pipeline is running bone dry. Sure, the demand ceiling floats on the macro tape, but this structural supply paralysis puts a bulletproof concrete floor under the market. 10) Marginal incentive pricing and long term cost floors have nowhere to go but violently up and to the right. So what's priced into the equities? Large caps are still riding a fat liquidity premium over the mid/small cap complex. Ivanhoe’s lagging for obvious DRC baggage, but look at the implied copper price deck. Freeport is pricing in $6.25/lb. First Quamtum is at $5.92/lb. Lundin sits at $5.44/lb, Capstone at $5.37/lb, my horse Hudbay at $4.73/lb, and Ivanhoe down at $3.95/lb. Of course each name has a different setup. In the case of Hudbay, which I hold, precious account for nearly 45% of annual revenue, whereas First Quantum and Freeport sit around the 10% mark. Naturally i'm completely fine with this since I'm structurally bullish on precious as well. What I want to say is that while we must closely monitor that the copper thesis doesn't derail, if you have conviction in the trajectory, equities still offer massive upside. Demand downside risk? Sure conceded. If Xi pulls the trigger on Taiwan or Jensen and Sam Altman get perp walked by the feds for running an AI Ponzi(lol), things will hit the fan. Outside of those black swans, the supply side reality is downright apocalyptic—and the operational bleed coming out of Chile just hammers the nail in the coffin. In commodity risk, when the supply side guarantees a rock solid floor, you’ve already eliminated half your downside distribution. Still max constructive on copper. Until the tape changes my thesis, I’m letting my winners run and fading the short term chop. Along with $HBM, I hold two junior miners. Certified worst PM on the planet and talking exclusively to pump my own book like the conflicted scumbag I am, so don't take this as financial advice. #copper#