$INIO Update, Part Two is live. The Factory Filled Up. The Float Did Not. On October 27, $INIO reported the best quarter in its history. Revenue up 57%, data center customers ordering $1.8 billion of engines in three months, EBITDA up 70%, the full-year guide raised, and backlog doubled in a year to $8 billion. Including services, $10.9 billion now sits in signed paper, roughly two years of revenue. Every test we set in Part One passed. The stock still trades below where Part One published. Nothing went wrong with the business. Something is about to happen to the float, and that is what Part Two is about. On November 30, the lock-up on 646.5 million sponsor shares expires, 86% of the company, against roughly 103.5 million shares trading today. We walk through the one precedent this year for a sponsor-owned power equipment IPO crossing its lock-up, and why the first print AFTER the expiry is the one that re-rates the stock. Also inside, the rule nobody noticed, INNIO takes no neocloud orders and prioritizes buyers holding 15-year hyperscaler offtakes. Committed capacity hit roughly 19 gigawatts, yet by our estimate only about a fifth of 2029 to 2031 is spoken for, which is where the next price reset lives. We checked the Waukesha ramp through the city's planning files and the careers page, it is real and running early. And at current prices, our model says the market is paying for a factory that stops growing next year. Target moves from $27 to $28. The full model, the float playbook, and what we got wrong in Part One, all inside.

Part One of our Data Center Bridge series is out, with more parts on the way. In this part we covered the question hanging over the entire sector, is this 2000 again. We rebuilt the filings of eleven hosting and fiber companies from the dot com era and measured whether they could pay their fixed bills from the cash they actually made. None could, the median covered 17 cents of every dollar owed. We then ran the same measure on fifteen small and mid cap data center companies today. The median covers 52 cents, and ten of fifteen still cannot pay their fixed bills from current cash. We also covered the part that does not rhyme with 2000. Back then the demand came from startups spending raised money. Today the end of the chain is $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, and $AMZN with signed orders, and on contracts already in hand, twelve of the fifteen cover their bills by year three. The risk is not fake demand, it is timing. The cash has been promised, not paid, and for five of these companies more than half of next year’s cash comes from contracts that have not started yet. That gap is what we call the bridge, getting from signed to earned to funded to delivered to paid. The market prices these fifteen companies as one trade. They are fifteen different bridges, and some are much longer than others. Part Two covers who is actually paying and what stands behind them. After that, single name deep dives, starting where our numbers and the October selloff disagree the most. Full piece on the Substack.

Reminder that $INIO reports tomorrow morning, with the call at 8:00 AM ET. A recap of the setup from our deep dive, The Grid Can Wait, The Data Center Can’t: -Backlog grew from $1 billion to $6.6 billion in 18 months, with 15GW+ of engines committed into 2031 -Customers prepaid $1.4 billion, in an industry where nobody prepays for engines -VoltaGrid’s 2.3GW order was the largest in company history, with Amazon running 280 Jenbachers in Pennsylvania and 620 more across Vantage, Oracle, and OpenAI sites -Capacity path toward 10GW per year by 2030 -Full-year guidance stands at $3.8 to 3.9 billion, and last quarter beat on both lines The Street looks for roughly $1.04 billion in revenue and $0.11 in EPS. What we are watching is not the quarter, it is the backlog number, whether prepayments keep climbing, any update on the capacity expansion timeline, and whether the full-year guide moves up. One structural note from the deep dive worth repeating into the print, the float is roughly 14% of shares, so the reaction in either direction will be amplified.

$VICR just reported Q3. -Revenue: $197.1M, up 78.5% year over year and 37.5% from last quarter -Royalty revenue: $66.6M vs $21.7M a year ago -Gross margin: 68.3%, up from 58.0% last quarter -EPS: $1.33 vs $0.63 a year ago -Cash from operations: $69.7M -Cash: $513.1M -Backlog: $406M, up 166% year over year Key takeaways: -Margins stepped up again. Gross margin is now 68.3%. Royalties are over a third of revenue. -The first license for the newest power delivery tech went to an AI OEM. -They’re buying two more sites, which management says gives nearly 5X the capacity of Fab-1 across 3 fabs. -Backlog keeps growing and demand is still ahead of supply.

Vicor guided the same quarter three times in 71 days. Jul 21: Q3 up nearly 10%. Sep 21: up more than 20%. Sep 30: up more than 30%, so above $186.4M. The product forecast never moved. Both raises came from one source: royalties on Vicor’s first non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license. Back out what was already contracted, and that license works out to roughly $28.7M in a single quarter. For comparison, Vicor’s royalty for all of 2025 was $57.4M. $VICR reports tomorrow before the open. Here’s what we’re watching. First, is it a run rate or a catch-up? If the license pays per unit sold, part of Q3 is back royalties on units that already shipped. Vicor has done this before: Q3 2025 royalty spiked, then fell 33% the next quarter. Whatever the Q4 guide implies for royalty answers this. Second, opex. The May license added $4.4M to SG&A for contingent legal fees. Royalty has no cost of goods, but it isn’t free. If opex jumps again, the new license carries the same cut. Third, the product side. Customer feedback on Gen2 VPD, and how quickly the fab reaches $1.5B in capacity. Fab space isn’t what limits Vicor right now. Customers are. Our line is simple. Q4 royalty under $25.4M means the new license doesn’t recur. Anything above that means Vicor now has two engines, and the second runs at nearly 100% gross margin. Part 1 and Part 2 are on our Substack. Part 3 drops after the print tomorrow!

Reminder that $VICR reports tomorrow before the open. A recap of what has happened since our deep dive published in September: -Three patent suits filed in Texas -A third ITC case filed, then formally instituted against nine corporate families, pleaded as one supply chain powering Google's TPUs -Sites acquired for additional fabs -First vertical power licensing agreement signed -Guidance raised twice in nine days, from 10% sequential growth to over 30%, on the royalties from that license -A royalty price list published on Vicor's own website -Needham to $350, Roth to $375 The Street expects $1.32 in EPS on $187 million in revenue. The report decides what the royalty structure actually looks like, and our Part Three publishes after it.

$MOD has customers waiting in line that it physically cannot sell to. Two hyperscalers are piloting its chillers right now, and existing customers cannot get units because the capacity is spoken for through 2029. That is the demand picture behind the stock. One agreement alone, worth more than $4 billion with a $165 million prepayment, reserves roughly half of Modine’s chiller output for three years. The CEO works directly with five hyperscalers and says it plainly, if they had the capacity today they would be shipping well above what they ship. The constraint is the building, not the buyers. The leaked database from August explains who is in that line. It named $GOOGL behind the $4 billion order, 3,512 chillers at 3 megawatts each, roughly 10.5 gigawatts of cooling in a supply chain that can build 12 to 13 gigawatts of new capacity per year. It showed $AMZN buying giant custom air handlers in a pipeline modeled three times larger than the chiller deal. Modine confirms none of it, but five separate public statements line up with the files, from the investor slides dating each hyperscaler relationship to the CEO’s own 40, 80, 100 probability language matching the database exactly. Run the pipeline through those odds and fiscal 2027 data center revenue lands near $2.3 billion, above the top of guidance. All of that sits on a company trading at 12 to 13 times EBITDA while $VRT trades at 23. Full breakdown below, including whether the chiller survives the warm water era, the factory bottleneck, and the honest bear case.

America’s five-year electricity demand forecast has risen sevenfold in three years. The queue to connect new supply is still a decade long. That single imbalance is the most durable theme in our coverage. The numbers behind it: roughly 295 gigawatts of announced data center capacity against 93 gigawatts of accredited supply additions through 2030. Turbine production slots are reserved years forward with cash deposits. Existing nuclear is signing contracts at premiums to wholesale power, with replacement costs for those plants now estimated as high as $17,570 per kilowatt, assets that cannot be rebuilt at any reasonable price. When demand moves this fast against supply that physically cannot respond, value concentrates in what is already built, already connected, and already on the production line. $GEV $VST $TLN $VRT

$INIO and $BE will book almost the same revenue this year. INNIO guides $3.8 to $3.9 billion, Bloom guides $3.9 to $4.2 billion. Bloom is worth roughly $85 billion. INNIO is worth about $14 billion. Same revenue, six times the price. It is not the hardware. INNIO shipped 3.4 gigawatts of engines last year, more than triple Bloom’s entire annual capacity, and is building toward 10 gigawatts a year by 2030. It is not demand either. The backlog went from $1 billion to $6.6 billion in eighteen months, committed business sits above 15 gigawatts with reservations into 2031, and customers have prepaid $1.4 billion, funding the factory expansion themselves. Amazon, VoltaGrid, and the campus being built for Oracle and OpenAI are already on the order book. The honest answer is the float. The IPO was 100% secondary, sponsors still own 86%, and only about 14% of the company trades. One tariff-hit quarter and some AI nerves took it 55% below its June high. Same customers, same buildout, same revenue. One trades like the future, the other trades like nobody has looked yet. Full breakdown in our INNIO deep dive on the Substack.

Vicor Update, Part Two is live. A month ago we published our Vicor deep dive with the stock around $175. Since then, $VICR filed three lawsuits, opened a third trade commission case, bought sites for more fabs, signed its first vertical power licensing deal, raised guidance twice in nine days on the royalties, and ran nearly 50%. Part Two is what happened next. The detail almost nobody caught. On October 8, Vicor quietly updated a chart on its website. It is a price list. The entire licensing model, printed on a marketing page. The next day, the trade commission opened an investigation into nine corporate families at Vicor’s request, pleaded as one supply chain powering Google’s TPUs. Google is not a defendant. Google is already a licensee. The founder told everyone this was coming. In April he said “there is no two without three. Don’t be surprised if you see a third one.” Six months before the third case arrived. Part Two covers how the trade commission weapon works, why the fab everyone criticized is the legal key to the whole campaign, and the five questions earnings must answer on October 20. Full piece on the Substack, link below.

$BE is worth about $85 billion. $INIO is worth $14.4 billion. This year they will book almost the same revenue. $INIO guides to $3.8 to $3.9 billion in 2026 revenue. $BE guides to $3.9 to $4.2 billion. INNIO shipped 3.4 gigawatts of engines last year. Bloom ended 2025 with about 1 gigawatt of annual factory capacity. INNIO is building toward 10 gigawatts a year by 2030. An AI campus needs power on a specific date and the grid cannot promise one. In the busiest regions, connecting a large new load takes five to seven years. Sell-side estimates value getting power one year earlier at about $4.50 per watt. INNIO's engines sell for $0.45 to $0.70 per watt. The buyer is paying for the date, not the hardware. The J624 is a 5 megawatt gas engine that gets trucked in on a trailer and takes load in about 15 seconds. Nothing larger takes load that fast. The demand is already on paper. Backlog went from $1.0 billion at the end of 2024 to $6.6 billion in June. Customers have prepaid $1.4 billion. 2026 and 2027 are sold out and reservations reach into 2030 and 2031. We traced about 8 gigawatts of Jenbacher engines to named sites. $AMZN specified 280 J620s in a Pennsylvania permit. $ORCL and OpenAI's Frontier campus runs on Jenbachers through VoltaGrid. Liberty Energy filed the first real price in an 8-K: $493 million for 100 J624s. Then there is the part nobody prices. Services were 48% of 2025 revenue and about 65% of segment profit. A data center engine runs about 8,000 hours a year against 2,000 to 4,000 on the legacy fleet, and the parts wear by the hour. The first wave hits major overhauls from 2029. So why is it $19.20, 29% below the $27 IPO and 55% below the June high? Because of who is selling. The IPO was 100% secondary. The sponsors still own 86% and only about 14% of the company trades. One quarter of tariff hit margins did the rest. The lockup expires November 30. Now run the math. At $19.20 the market is pricing capacity that stops at about 5.7 gigawatts, short of the Austrian expansion already under construction, with the new Wisconsin line adding nothing. Our base case is $27, about 40% above today. Bear is $14.40 and bull is $38. The risks are real. The Texas permit pause. A sponsor with 646 million shares to sell. VoltaGrid at 41% of 2025 orders. All of it is in the report, along with what would change our mind. The dates that decide it: October 19 TCEQ's report, October 29 Enerflex earnings, mid November INNIO's Q3, November 30 the lockup, and around December 10 when ERCOT finishes its review. The grid will get there eventually. The data center cannot wait for it. INNIO sells the time in between.

$VICR just raised Q3 guidance again. Nine days ago it went from ~10% sequential growth to over 20%. Today it's over 30%. The stock has nearly doubled in the three weeks since this deep dive went out. Two fabs, a fourth licensee, two guidance raises. All on royalties from one license, and there are five more AI counterparties still unlicensed. Earnings October 27. Deep dive is free.

Happy Labor Day everyone! Our writeup for this week is out. What's in it: - Fed goes silent all week, CPI Friday - $119bn of Treasury auctions into 52-week high yields - $NVDA's Jensen says AGI has arrived - $AAPL foldable Wednesday - $ORCL and $ADBE report Thursday - OPEC+ on hold, diesel at a record, tanker war in Hormuz - Canada's tariffs hit Tuesday Going forward every newsletter is 100% free. No paid sub needed. We post two every week. Everyone should know what's moving markets and what they own. That's what this is for. Link in bio.

We started doing weekly write-ups covering the market news that actually moves things. Earnings, the Fed, new data releases, energy, deals, etc. Twice a week. Sunday night is what's coming and what each number actually measures. Friday night is what happened, and whether the thing we said to watch was the right thing to watch. Anyone can tell you the jobs report comes out Friday. The useful part is knowing which line to read and how to act on it. Link in bio, new weekly recap just posted!