Lawrence McDonald
@Convertbond
NY Times Bestselling Author, over 1 million copies sold, now published in 12 languages globally. Long-time @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
13.9K Following 145.1K Followers
Elon says neoclouds execution risk is very real.
Some neoclouds will prove to be operators and some will be exposed as promoters.
The unsecured bonds have capped upsides and IMO close to zero in a bankruptcy so market is demanding high yields.
Big dispersion = higher yields
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Brent, days > $100
2026: 115
2008: 162
Grok data
Oil traders are increasingly pricing the battle over the Strait of Hormuz as the new normal. Futures contracts for brent crude in December 2027 are now close to $90 a barrel, the highest ever and a sharp departure from even a month ago.
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Fiscal Overdosing
+
A Multipolar World
+
AI Capex Overdosing
+
Reshoring
=
Who are the Enron, Tyco, Adelphia, Sunbeam, Worldcom, and Lucent of this cycle?
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Inflation looks like it's back and needs some work.
*From 2012-2020 (the Lost World), the highest year-over-year inflation print was 2.9%, vs. 3.7% in last week's CPI data.
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ANTHROPIC PROPOSES AI SAFETY BILL TO LAWMAKERS: POLITICO
*Translation -- We are worried about our spineless MOAT, so we need help from Washington to keep cheap China / Asia AI out of the USA.
Important color from this week’s CIO level Ideas Dinner in NYC, special thanks to the Harvard Club for hosting a UMass guy. Software $IGV ETF off -5% today - After weaker (potentially disruptive) incoming data, many fortune 500 companies (like Goldman) are moving away from “frontier models” in favor of a portfolio of cheaper open source plays. Alert - Anthropic needs to juice their forward looking revenue - Pollyannish outlook - into the (expected) November IPO, software names have a target 🎯 on their back.
cc @chamath @RealJimChanos @jimwpaulsen @nfergus @andrewrsorkin @RaoulGMI
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Shot last week, @MichelleMakori is ALWAYS a few steps ahead.
Rate cuts by early 2027?
Larry McDonald @Convertbond argues the Fed can’t sustain rate hikes amid $1.1 trillion in government debt interest and mounting consumer stress. He sees a potential shift toward rate cuts and opportunities in gold, silver, REITs, and utilities.
Watch the full interview on The Real Story with @MichelleMakori. YouTube Link in the replies.
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Now live!
A Multipolar World + $2T deficets in the USA + $2T AI Capex =
Producer Prices - Business Level Inflation
In Q1 / Q2, the BCOM vs. PPI divergence was striking; now the jaws are closing. - Bloomberg Terminal data.
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Dead money forever - clown show.
I like how $NVDA took forevvvvvver to hit a new ATH just 7 days ago and instantly goes into a technical correction literally right afterwards. Lol
Equities vaporized. Hubris, complacency, never EVER forget September 15, 2008.
"the
everything
code"
A Big congrats to our friend @RaoulGMI - pick up a copy today -- for that end-of-summer must-read.
I’m off - Checking on our “Hard Assets” - see you in September, join us here
@BearTrapsReport
Gratitude 🙏
L
This (below)... All laid out in "When Markets Speak" - a great summer read...
HIGH ALERT - We MUST pay attention...
Regime Change - This is soft yield curve control. The headline numbers seem small, but if they are starting steps down this road, that's ALL that matters.
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It's NOT size buying now, but much like the Yen / EUR intervention, this is just Bessent putting a LARGE GUN on the table, saying "I will use it. Make my day."
It's NOT size buying now, but much like the Yen / EUR intervention, this is just Bessent putting a LARGE GUN on the table, saying "I will use it. Make my day."
HIGH ALERT - We MUST pay attention...
Regime Change - This is soft yield curve control. The headline numbers seem small, but if they are starting steps down this road, that's ALL that matters.
Show more
A year ago the Street pegged this number near $500B now $3T…
See @zerohedge
This is the moment. As a former Lehman trader I feel it’s the time speak up. We all have that responsibility, enough hubris. We must STOP this. Your 401k is on the line. I know deep down @elonmusk @chamath and @DavidSacks agree — at a $2T valuation, passive investors (the S&P 500, the Nasdaq) deserve better.
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Valuation at IPO
Microsoft: $775m (1986)
Amazon: $475m (1997)
Nvidia: $75m (1999)
Tesla: $2B (2010)
Facebook: $100B (2012)
Uber: $80B (2019)
Palantir: $22B (2020)
SpaceX: $2000B, yes $2T estimated (2026)
Grok data.
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