"Situationship" is my $BTC bull porn essay on how the AI bubble will burst, and why the money printer will go hyper brrrr and take us back to a rip roaring bull market. "The question of internal framing is the key variable that determines whether AI is a bubble. But before we understand the bubbliciousness of AI, the better question to ask is in what kind of businesses are we investing, or in relationship terms, “What are we”? The dichotomy, at least to my Luddite brain, is the distinction between what investors believe AI CAPEX represents: is it technology or real estate? The zeitgeist is that this multi-trillion dollar build out is “technology” and must receive insane growth multiples by the market. But I believe AI CAPEX is just another boring real estate play. However, in this instance, what’s inside the data center is compute that creates silicon-based lifeforms that will aid human civilizational development in the most profound way since the railroads. The distinction between real estate and compute is important because the recently post-pubescent hedge fund bro, the bank, the private credit fund, and ultimately the government believes funding the building of a data center and power plant is like lending to Apple, instead of lending to Lehman Brothers. The bursting of the AI bubble will occur because financial intermediaries, tacitly supported by the US and Chinese governments, will over build data centers and everything that goes into providing the substrate to house chips that train AI models and conduct inference. Therefore, the AI bubble is a credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.[1]" Link to my substack and the full article on my bio.

We need to monitor this weeks Fed H.4.1 release to confirm whether the JP MOF repo’d their TSY for $ then sold them to buy Yen. If Bessent can get the counterparty limit increased then the Fed can create money using MOF TSY as collateral.

Thank you to my partners, my BitMEX employees, and most importantly our clients. It was an amazing ride. We did something special together. And I'm so proud of what we created and that we will shutdown responsibly on our own terms. Fuck TradFi, Fuck the Banks, Fuck the man. Satoshi for life.

Had to pick up a second piece for my cousin @CryptoHayes so we could mog for $SYN SUMMER. Yatchzeeeeee bitches. Don’t forget to submit an article by this weekend (read QT) - at $18.4 $100K SYN is $1,840,000 USD - can grab yourself one of these for only a quarter of your stack.

🚨 CLARITY Act Has NO Bearing On Bitcoin's Price! | Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, shares his thoughts on what drives Bitcoin's price and whether the CLARITY Act will have an impact. Watch the full interview #bitcoin# #clarityact# #crypto#

How will ethereum:0x0f2d719407fdbeff09d87557abb7232601fd9f29 hit $18/token? $100M in premiums traded daily at 90% buyback = $230M in annual burn x 20 multiple = 4.6B market cap / 250M FDV = $18.4/ ethereum:0x0f2d719407fdbeff09d87557abb7232601fd9f29

It's always good to routinely analyse ur trading history. For 1H26 I traded crypto and stonks. My realised profit trading crypto was 160x larger than my stonk profit. Sometimes it pays to stay in your lane.

I will pay $25,000 USD to anyone who can get me on a google meet for 30mins with @ShaneStoffer or @stevewilldoit or @stoolpresidente or @GrahamStephan to discuss Hypercall / $SYN here is some easy to understand context, anyone of them could make 9 figs on this. Some context: Over the past year I have been following what I think will be the next big thing in global options trading and crypto. This is the most asymmetric investment opportunity I’ve ever seen in my life. Opportunity for a >100x here on a super liquid crypto coin listed on binance and kraken. I am not some scam pump and dumper - see my interview here with Mike Novogratz US billionaire and CEO of $GLXY I was the largest Galaxy research analyst on X (10’s of millions of impressions). I want to do the same thing for Hypercall made by Synapse ($SYN) @SynapseProtocol I think there’s an opportunity to make $50-200M here if you invest a few $M in the token and use the platform to trade/invest (through $SYN going up and referral links) Happy to set up a call with the team they were the #1# bridge in crypto and processed over $50B in volume in 2021 bull market and have pivoted to options. CEO is a total giga mind and the other co-founder works at OpenAI. The product lets you trade options on any asset in the world from anywhere in the world with just a crypto wallet. This is absolultey huge there is masive demand to trade US equities in markets that can't currently access them espeically with all the US AI companies ripping (Indians, Chinese and Asians love options really want to trade this stuff). For example, indians loves options and trade more than the US in daily volume $5T in India per day vs $4T per day in the US - imagine you gave them access to US equity options..... Their first options contracts were on SpaceX pre-IPO, so the common man who’s usually locked out until after IPO can participate. The token is trading at a ~100M valuation and if they can win the Hyperliquid options market ($HYPE is trading at $60 billion) then this could be huge, potentially $3B outcome —> the closest competitor (if they are successful is Deribit, who sold to Coinbase for $2.9B). If this blows up globally I could see it flipping $CBOE (250x) and even $HOOD (900x).