New Era Finance Podcast
@new_era_finance
Weekly insights for the next era of finance. Featuring the world's leading voices in finance | Hosted by @cryptomichnl | New episode dropping weekly 🎙️
106 Following 2.7K Followers
The US is becoming more crypto-friendly. So why is @HenrikZeberg still expecting a major Bitcoin bear market?
Because he doesn’t believe regulation or adoption can override the macro environment.
Henrik argues that if the economy rolls over and the dollar starts strengthening, Bitcoin could face a very different environment, regardless of what happens with the CLARITY Act.
“The lack for dollars is going to kill anything that has to do with crypto.”
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
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Tom Lee: "2027 could be the biggest stock market gains of our lifetime."
His reasoning: AI makes companies more profitable, costs fall, and that gives central banks room to ease. Rising earnings and rising multiples at the same time.
Full episode with @fundstrat on New Era Finance.
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Gold went sideways for 13 years. Matthew Mezinskis thinks that silence is about to matter a lot for Bitcoin.
"The most apples to apples comparison for Bitcoin is gold. I one hundred percent agree with you. Gold got to two thousand dollars an ounce in 2011, then went basically sideways for the next thirteen years, which happens to be almost exactly the lifespan of Bitcoin."
Two assets, one competing for the same pool of capital. When gold finally broke out with one of its most violent moves since the 1980s, it opened a question: does that liquidity eventually rotate into Bitcoin too?
His answer leans toward yes, and he lays out exactly why in this clip.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
@1basemoney
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Warren Buffett is sitting on 40% cash right now. Waiting for the fat pitch.
"Gold and silver should never be more than five to ten percent of your portfolio. We've been recommending a heavy slice of cash, because it's a great position in a risk sell-off scenario."
@DowdEdward on how to actually build a portfolio for what's coming.
"If you're young, 25, and you have a small retirement savings account, I don't think you even need to worry about it. If you're older, you should be raising cash to take advantage of opportunities on the other side."
His advice depends entirely on your age, not the headlines.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily clips.
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Edward Dowd thinks the AI bubble isn't about to burst. He thinks it already started, and most people are watching the wrong indicators.
We recorded the evening NVIDIA reported earnings. He'd already moved on to what comes after.
Ed ran money on Wall Street at BlackRock. His argument is mechanical, not emotional:
"Because we've delayed the reckoning, there's that much more leverage in the system. The unwind will be faster than it was in the dot-com bubble."
Every crisis we postponed added leverage. Now it all unwinds at once, and faster than 2000.
We cover:
- The three cracks he's watching: the semiconductor sell-off, the slowdown in AI adoption, and credit markets showing stress for the first time
- Why OpenAI and Anthropic's valuations need to keep rising just to keep financing themselves
- Why the power grid, not capital, may be the real ceiling on the AI build-out
- Why he says the average American is already in a recession that just hasn't been declared
- What he'd actually own right now
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of today’s show. Make sure to use the 8% deposit bonus while you still can.
Timestamps:
00:40 - Why The Bubble Is Already Bursting
03:09 - Bitcoin's Next Move
05:49 - When Policy Hits Crypto
09:09 - The Oil Signal Nobody's Watching
11:53 - The Reckoning We Delayed
15:05 - Cracks In Private Credit
18:04 - Echoes Of 1929
29:49 - How Empires End
31:52 - The Real Estate Time Bomb
33:09 - The Housing Domino
36:51 - China's Slow-Motion Crisis
42:49 - What He'd Own Right Now
47:25 - Where Gold Goes From Here
52:30 - Cash vs Inflation: The Real Trade-Off
56:26 - Sizing Up The Trade
@DowdEdward
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The 8% Deposit bonus at @okx has been extended by three more days.
Get your 8% bonus now, sign up here and deposit your assets and enjoy free money:
The number on your portfolio screen might not mean what you think it means.
"There's a market cap fallacy, that something is worth its market cap. Market cap is not a valuation of a business. There isn't enough money in the world to actually facilitate the buying for that market cap to be realized."
Francis Hunt, The Market Sniper, on why trillions in "value" can vanish the moment everyone tries to cash out at once.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
@themarketsniper
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
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🎙️ What happens when Bitcoin reaches $1 million?
@CryptoMichNL says the entire financial system is cooked if Bitcoin hits $1 million.
Watch the latest #CHAINREACTION#.
I asked @themarketsniper the question everyone's avoiding: rates went from 0% to 5.5%, yields are spiking in Japan, and yet everything keeps going up. How long can this last?
His answer reframes what "up" even means:
"There's meltups — not in terms of gold ounces. Meltups in terms of dollar."
Stocks aren't rising. The ruler is shrinking. And his explanation for why nobody notices is the line I can't unhear:
"The dollar is devaluing far more rapidly than you realize. The only reason you don't realize this is because the euro is two, the pound is two and many others are all managed. So you're comparing lepers in a leper colony... As a result they look no better or no worse than you."
Every fiat currency measured against the others looks stable, because they're all deteriorating together. The only honest ruler left, in his view, is gold — and the buyers moving it aren't retail:
"Institutions and central banks are setting the gold price, not us as retail." Surplus nations "aggressively buying gold at the central banking level" — shoring up balance sheets "with real
things that you truly own, not ones that are pieces of paper that somebody else holds and can change your ability to get out of them."
His shape for how this resolves is the Hemingway bankruptcy curve: "It goes slowly at first and suddenly very fast."
The meltup is real. It's just measured in a melting unit.
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Divide the Nasdaq by gold, and the picture changes completely.
"That's the Nasdaq option, divided by gold. It's even more of a parabola than the S&P in terms of its move."
Francis Hunt, The Market Sniper, on the chart most investors never look at, and why it tells a very different story than the headline number.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
@themarketsniper
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
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Your stocks aren't going up. Your money is going down.
"Equity going up is actually a function of retaining some of its value on a massively depreciating dollar. They've all jumped out of the airplane that was gold a long time ago. Stop looking at the other jumpers. You're all hitting the ground in the end."
Francis Hunt, @themarketsniper, on why a rising stock market can be an illusion of a currency losing value underneath it.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
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Bitcoin may not be the escape from the financial system people think it is.
“Those that believe Bitcoin was made by a benevolent person who wanted to save you from the cartel of bankers…”
Francis Hunt, The Market Sniper, on why he believes Bitcoin’s origin story is a “complete fairy tale.”
His argument is that Bitcoin wasn’t created to free people from the existing financial system, but to move them into a digital one with even less privacy.
Whether you agree with him or not, it raises an uncomfortable question: does it matter who created Bitcoin if the network now operates independently?
Follow New Era Finance for daily insights.
FT @themarketsniper
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
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Francis Hunt's description of the US Treasury market is the most uncomfortable thing I've heard this month:
"You can check into this purgatory, but you can't leave it when you want to."
His claim: if you're an oversized holder of US debt, Japan, Britain, most of Europe, there's an unwritten rule. "Sorry mate, you don't get to sell your investment." No big sellers allowed. And without big sellers, "you do not have true price discovery."
Then he does the math that makes it real. Japan holds roughly $1.1 trillion in Treasuries. The repo facility being offered against that: $60 billion. In his analogy, I lent you $1,100, and instead of my money back, you're offering me a $60 loan against my own collateral. On terms I never get to see.
And the precedents are piling up, in his telling: the UK gilt crisis in 2022, the California teachers' pension needing to sell and being offered loans instead, the Gulf states dumping assets after Hormuz and being handed swap lines. Every time someone needs the exit: "Hey, don't sell our treasuries. Here's swap lines for you. This is the Hotel California."
His conclusion is why he's watching gold, not rates: when leaving isn't allowed, "the main story is capital preservation, return OF capital."
@themarketsniper
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There's a new security guard at the debt hotel, and his name is Scott Bessent.
"We've called Bessent the new Hotel California security guard. If you're an oversized US Treasury holder, in our opinion, you can check in anytime you like, but you're not leaving."
Francis Hunt, @themarketsniper, on why the world's biggest debt holders can no longer get their money back, only borrow against it.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
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Have you listened this one yet? 👇🏼
Listen on Spotify:
Listen on Apple:
"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
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Everybody has his own assets that they like.
That's why I asked @themarketsniper about #Bitcoin#.
To be frank: he's not a huge fan.
He has a theory of who actually created $BTC and why this person has made Bitcoin.
On top of that, it made him even more bullish on Gold much rather than Bitcoin.
You'll be surprised by who he picks.
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Bankruptcies don't happen the way you think they do.
"I refer to it as the Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve. It goes slowly at first, and suddenly very fast."
Francis Hunt, @themarketsniper, on why the system can look fine for years right up until the moment it isn't. Slow decay, then a vertical drop. That's the curve he thinks we're already on.
Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
@themarketsniper on why the financial system isn't broken, it's working exactly as built:
A debt-based system, in his framing, has one permitted direction: expansion. Contraction isn't a policy option, it's a system failure. So every crisis gets answered the same way, more debt, more liquidity, more of the thing that caused it.
His model for how that ends is the Hemingway curve: gradually, then suddenly. And he points to a dress rehearsal most investors have already forgotten, Britain, 2022, when a slow-building pension problem turned into a bond market crash within days, and the Bank of England had to step back in almost overnight.
Translation: the debate isn't whether the system holds this quarter. It's that a structure which can only expand has no gentle way down, so the risk doesn't build in a straight line, it builds silently and releases at once. The people who did well in the gilt crisis weren't the ones who predicted the day. They were the ones holding what forced sellers needed.
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
@themarketsniper on why the financial system isn't broken, it's working exactly as built:
A debt-based system, in his framing, has one permitted direction: expansion. Contraction isn't a policy option, it's a system failure. So every crisis gets answered the same way, more debt, more liquidity, more of the thing that caused it.
His model for how that ends is the Hemingway curve: gradually, then suddenly. And he points to a dress rehearsal most investors have already forgotten, Britain, 2022, when a slow-building pension problem turned into a bond market crash within days, and the Bank of England had to step back in almost overnight.
Translation: the debate isn't whether the system holds this quarter. It's that a structure which can only expand has no gentle way down, so the risk doesn't build in a straight line, it builds silently and releases at once. The people who did well in the gilt crisis weren't the ones who predicted the day. They were the ones holding what forced sellers needed.
Show more
"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave."
Francis Hunt (@themarketsniper) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside.
The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do.
We cover:
- The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly
- The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once
- The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days
- Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment
- Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet
- Gold vs #Bitcoin# as the exits from the hotel
Thanks to @OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle
02:52 - Hotel California Debt
07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising
12:12 - Rates Are Spiking
15:21 - The Devaluation Chart
19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin
24:19 - Trapped By Design
25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion
28:35 - Financial Purgatory
30:19 - Japan's Trap
32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money
38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed
39:35 - Correction Of Distortions
41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets
42:41 - What's Next For Gold
Show more
Raoul Pal says #Bitcoin# should be $160K right now.
Not as a prediction. As a gap.
His argument: global liquidity has already expanded, and Bitcoin historically lags that expansion by 10–12 weeks. The liquidity is here. The price hasn't caught up.
Two ways to read that.
Either the model is broken this cycle, or the market is simply late.
I don't know which. But I know which one the market is currently pricing in, and it's not the one that makes everyone nervous.
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"It isn't a capital gain. The fiat was debased. Measured in gold, you didn't gain anything. Taxing it is theft."
@themarketsniper on why unrealized capital gains taxes attack something deeper than your wallet, your property itself:
"An unrealized gains tax is a denial of property rights. You're told you made money before you've realized a cent and handed a tax bill for it. So you're forced to sell, partially or entirely, just to meet the obligation."
"You bought the house for €150,000. You sell it for €500,000. But gold went up sixfold in that time, not fourfold. Measured honestly, you should be booking a loss, not paying a gain."
"The whole policy of central bankers is debasement of fiat and debt. So you haven't gained. You're being forced to surrender assets to pay tax on a gain that only exists because the measuring stick was broken."
The argument isn't "taxes are too high." It's that a gain measured in a currency that's being actively devalued isn't a gain at all and taxing it forces asset sales to pay a bill on wealth that, in real terms, never grew.
Whether or not you agree, it reframes the entire debate:
what are you actually measuring against? If your gains disappear when you price them in gold, were they ever gains or just inflation?
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This week ChatGPT opened unlimited chats to over a billion users. The next bottleneck isn't demand. It's speed, and the race to solve it is already underway.
Emad Mostaque, the founder of Stability AI, on the hardware shift that could make today's models look slow.
"I think I should use crypto because agents operate at ridiculous speed. There's a chip that goes 15,000 tokens a second, versus the normal 50 tokens a second on silicon. 300 times faster."
Most people are still measuring AI progress by which model is smartest. Emad's point is that speed changes the entire game: an agent running 300 times faster doesn't just answer quicker, it can act, trade, and negotiate in the time it takes a human to read the question.
Want more? Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
@EMostaque @ii_posts @StabilityAI
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Ben Goertzel told me two years. Emad Mostaque puts a sharper number on it: 800 days.
@EMostaque built Stable Diffusion: he put AI image generation in the hands of millions. Now he's warning about what he helped start:
"In crypto it's not your keys, not your crypto. And with AI, it's not your models, not your mind."
His argument goes further than jobs. Within a couple of years, he says, the value of human cognitive labor goes to zero. And while that happens, governments move in with licenses, KYC and surveillance to control who gets access to the most powerful models. The people who own their own AI stay sovereign. Everyone else rents their mind from a platform.
We cover:
- The 800-day timeline, and why most people aren't ready
- Why you'll soon need a license just to use frontier AI
- Why an open-source model you run yourself is the only real form of sovereignty
- Digital feudalism: what happens if five companies own all the intelligence
- Why owning your models could become as important as owning your Bitcoin keys
Thanks for @OKX for being our sponsor of this episode.
Timestamps:
00:00 - The 800-Day Countdown
03:16 - What AI Breaks First
06:01 - Not Your Models, Not Your Mind
16:53 - The License You'll Need To Use AI
24:05 - The Ethics Nobody Agrees On
27:30 - The Jobs That Don't Survive
32:33 - When Cognitive Labor Goes To Zero
39:47 - Investing In A World That Thinks
51:44 - Escaping Digital Feudalism
55:41 - What To Do Differently Tomorrow
@StabilityAI @ii_posts
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