Last Sunday, I previewed caution on capex spenders & more optimism on their customers. This past wk, Mag7 (spenders) -5.8%, while Semi Index (customers) +1.2% with S&P -0.6%. This wk, we get earnings from four of the Mag7 for a more complete picture. Last week, WTI +8% and yields across the 2-30 yr curve increased by 9-15 bps, which was also a major issue for equity markets. De-escalation in Iran over the weekend should help both oil prices and yields during the start of this upcoming week. I continue to believe November 3rd mid-terms put a powerful impetus on the US administration to get oil prices down well before then. This is my current framework for AI investing: Positives: 1) The advent of Agentic AI on January 30th with the formalization of OpenClaw will drive 10-100x more token production. 2) Microprocessor vendors benefit in the move from 8 to 1 GPUs per CPU to ~unity in the move to Agentic AI. 3) The current philosophy of the hyperscalers that they cannot afford to lose the AI race keeps me more bullish on the recipients of that capex spend than the spenders. Negatives: 1) AI native revenues will be determined in the near-term by the trade-off between the top 1% of companies focusing on controlling their AI spend vs the ramp of the other 99% given the move from token maximization in March to token minimization by June. 2) Part of that control of AI spend will come at the expense of non-security software companies, IT services and headcount. 3) The cost of money is also more expensive which is a headwind to equity multiples. 11 of the major central banks have gone from cutting rates from roughly 2.7% in July of 2025 to 2.4% by early February to raising them to 2.6% today. At the same time, 10 year treasury yields across the 11 associated countries stayed flattish at roughly 3.2% from July of 2025 through February and has now risen to 3.8%. For megacap earnings this week, my belief is much like last week, ROIC (the interplay between capex and future EPS estimates) is likely to have an outsized impact on the near-term direction in stock prices. $META should have benefitted from increased engagement during the World Cup. But Meta revs grew 27% in Q3:25 vs 22% in Q2:25 creating tough comparisons for the Q3:26 guide. In addition, a potential launch of a public cloud and LLM API may embolden Meta to increase capex spend. Fortunately, valuation in the teens is low vs 22x CY26 PE for the S&P. $MSFT Azure has a high bar given Google GCP revs accelerated from +63% y/y in CQ1 to 82% in CQ2. But I wonder if the focus on AI cost control is an increasing tailwind for Co-Pilot. It operates natively within the Microsoft 365 ecosystem where enterprise work already happens. But Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI which I remain negative on given they are caught between Google in consumer AI and Anthropic in enterprise. $AMZN AWS rev growth also has a high bar to clear due to GCP. In addition, higher oil prices are likely to be pressuring the logistics cost of their e-commerce business as well as consumer purchasing power. The shift of their 4 day Prime event to late June from early July should benefit Q2 but at the expense of Q3 guide. $AAPL is benefitting from the AI capex spend of others, especially their partner, Google. But I believe CQ3/CQ4 estimates are too high for both revenues and margins (due to rising semiconductor prices) and valuation at a 37x PE is expensive. From a longer-term perspective, I remain bullish on the potential upgrade cycle from a foldable phone with AI enabled Siri. Best of luck in the week ahead.