Post all the negative AI related news recently, $SPCX revs beat by 14% w/ AI beating by 19%. Q4 capex guide almost 90% above consensus while Q1 revs guided 57% above. Also $SMCI +pre w/ revs 27% above consensus. My conviction of a near-term AI rally continues to grow. As I posted on 10/15 on the overall AI trade following the bludgeoning in the Kospi, “The bottom line is even if we have seen THE TOP, the odds based on history are high for at least a short-term rally.” As opposed to repeating the stats from my 10/15 post on the Kospi (Korean stock market dominated by memory) or this past Sunday on the SOX (semiconductor index), I think the following is worthwhile. Assume I am wrong about Agentic AI driving infrastructure growth into at least 2027. The funding issues for the neo-clouds, slowing revenue growth at OAI/Anthropic and bi-partisan pushback against datacenters has to be considered. Assume THE TOP in the AI trade was on 6/22 which was the peak in the SOX. Looking at the performance from the peak of internet bubble on 3/24/00 to its bottom on 10/9/22, the S&P decline was 49% with the SOX down a staggering 83%! But even during that punishing decline during the bursting of the internet bubble, the S&P saw 7 rallies that averaged 14% each while the SOX using those same dates saw rallies of 28%! During each of those advances most investors wanted to believe we had seen the bottom. The problem was the 8 declines averaged 17% for the S&P and 34% for the SOX. If I use the more recent decline during the GFC from 10/9/07-3/9/09, the S&P fell 57% while the SOX dropped 66%. But this also had 11 rallies that averaged 10% each for the S&P and 11% for the SOX. The problem was the twelve declines averaged 15% for the S&P and 19% for the SOX using the same dates. In summary whether you are an AI bull or bear, I do not believe it makes a difference for positioning in the near-term. The AI infrastructure trade by the metrics discussed on 10/15 or 10/18 around the semis looks oversold. In addition, a good bearish investor is open to the idea that they may be early, just wrong or about to have a bear market rally. Maybe the SpaceX earnings and Super Micro positive pre-announcement today are the trigger to start the next AI related rally regardless of whether we have seen THE TOP or not.