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David Pawlan
@DavidPawlan
growth @merit_systems | creator of prev: @bracketologytv (acquired), @aloalabs chicago cubs forever #FlyTheW#
Joined May 2013
818 Following    5.1K Followers
Agentic commerce is not a good experience today. However, people seem to mistake the early days of agentic commerce for the failure of the industry as a whole. In reality, things are moving in the right direction. @ForterGlobal published some incredible data that highlights where agentic commerce stands today: 1/ There is clear demand Agentic orders are up 7.2x since the first week of August, and Muse placed more than half of all agentic orders in its first week. Even before Muse, agentic orders grew 24% from August to September, or 48% once you count Instinct & Grok Bot, which first showed up Sept 1. If users are naturally pushing agentic orders in the first week of Muse's launch, before any of Muse's widespread ads, then you know it's an inherent behavior that users are interested in. 2/ Muse's growth was net-additive to the industry Muse didn't steal orders from other agents. After it launched, orders from OpenAI, Google and ChatGPT kept growing, up 4% month over month. Muse brought in net-new demand. 3/ Browser automation drove the explosion Browser automation, especially before companies started cracking down on bot detection, allowed these agents to shop freely. Muse alone bought at 74% of all stores that got any agentic orders. Instinct followed behind at 50% coverage. Many sites are blocking agents, so I am putting together my own report that tests 20+ agents on sites like Macy's, Target, Nike, Dick's and Amazon. I'll release that report soon 🙂 4/ Protocol agents reach minimal stores OpenAI's checkout protocol reached only 24% of stores, and Google just 5%. The issue with protocols is that they are bound to the merchants that have implemented said protocol. Relying on the store to integrate is a proven friction point for scaling agentic commerce. 5/ Agentic commerce is built for multi-item checkout The average agentic order is $227 and reflects a lean towards multi-item checkouts. Muse had an average order size of $213 and Instinct hit $239. Google averages only $100, since it only supports single-item checkout. Of all agentic orders, only 27% are under $50, again pointing towards multi-item carts as the dominant use case. 6/ Travel still dominates Travel hit $536 per order, over 2x the next category, which is physical goods at $235. We're still early, and I question whether the average American will use agents for travel like the early adopters do, but for now, the data holds true. 7/ North America is 86% of agentic orders Agentic commerce volume is almost all North America so far, which leaves a massive opportunity for all other geographic markets. Agentic commerce is just getting started, and given some of this early traction in just the first few months, it feels like we're positioned for a wild ride. Source:
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