I spend zero time gaslighting my followers on "ignoring the FUD" and diamond hand. It's incredible dangerous mentality. It works great if you actually hold a generational company but extremely dangerous mentality when you hold a shit company. I'd rather be alert and weight the news as they are against my thesis. Below is a post I dissected from a 100K influencer with claude... Bottom line: This is “diamond hands” conditioning. It pre-labels any future bad news as fake, so followers keep holding (and keep the price up) no matter what comes out. “Being scared, not knowing what you own, will wreck you” → The opening is sound advice, and it earns your trust. The rest of the post then flips it into “ignore anything negative.” “FUD can come from any reporter, any talking head, anyone” → Pre-emptive discrediting. Every critic is lumped together as noise before they say anything, including a legit short report, a bad filing, or a dilution notice. “Algos, nefarious parties amplify it” → An invisible enemy. Drops become a conspiracy rather than information, which makes the tribe more loyal. “MASSIVE drops on literal BULLSHIT” → It assumes every drop is unjustified. Sometimes a drop is the market pricing in real bad news. “Be steadfast… or exit in the next leg up” → This shames sellers as weak, and it quietly promises a “next leg up” as if one were certain. “I was born for this / Bring the FUD / smell of FUD” → Identity and bravado. Holding becomes a personality and a team, not a decision you re-evaluate. What’s missing → No ticker thesis, no numbers, no mention of what would make him wrong. Real conviction comes with a stated sell trigger. The tell: Good investors say “here’s what would change my mind.” This post says “nothing should change your mind,” which is exactly what someone needs followers to believe if they’re holding a volatile, hype-driven stock.

People keep asking me how I find high conviction stocks, predict price target or estimate valuation. The idea is not hard, find a company that will haul tons of profits. The doing is hard because there are so many layers complexity, obfuscation that you have to go through to understand the bottom line. Every sector is a little different. Warren Buffett said the same thing: “And you’re only looking at two things: how much revenue it will make, and when.” Understanding is difficult. I'll share a couple examples in my subscriber only.

Likely excitement comes back pre-Neutron or post Neutron. The whole space/defense sector doesn't haul profits the way other sector works...We see many deals but those deals are burden that takes a long time to execute. So i'm skeptical of the sector in general after a big run.

Some would argue $QCOM is undervalued. It's not that simple. $QCOM is just a chip designer and sends all their designs to $TSMC. They don't own the end customers, no vertical integration. Amazon had $AVGO design their TPUs, and guess what, AVGO/Broadcom sends their chip to TSMC. The only value added is designing chip. Now Amazon is doing a deal with QCOM, a company that fell behind, to design the next chip, pressuring them to undercut AVGO. Amazon serves end user on its AWS platform, one of the largest hyperscaler. They have the pricing power. Now they have 2 companies competing for the price. While $NVDA also design and sends their chip to $TSMC. They controls the CUDA stack developer ecosystem connecting to end developers. Chances are NVDA design will far outpace the price/performance of the rate of designs by QCOM/AVGO. The math is not good for $QCOM. Pure chip designer without the distribution to end developers, nor manufacturing, pressured by some of the largest company on earth. I could be wrong in the short term, but it's not a risk I'm willing to take.

Yet another reason why China can never win. China had one of the largest population in the world and they needed an ideology to control their population. Confucism was that ideology and it was the worst thing that happened to them. The ideology dictates that respect, and "maintain harmony" (eg don't argue with your superior/boss, or even to each other ) are prioritized above everything else. That means every new idea is crushed, any progressed is dashed. All progress happens top-down. In the West, it is driven by Roman Empire with ideology for debate, free thinking. There's a reason Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and the great investors choose US. They don't want sound racist, but I'm just giving it to you the truth.

This can't be good for $hims shareholders even if its for "growth". This much dilution will only drive investors out and make it difficult in future to raise funds. Build a robust, profitable business and do half share, half cash. Even Cohen knows this 😁

Waterfront Visualizer: Vibe-coded a visualization software to see my future waterfront property with 3d tiles from Google from any property address. This helps me pick the lots with the best views (360) from the vantage of all the floors. I can switch to first-person, walk around, and go through all 3 floor of the home. This took about half a day but tinkering with more features.

My buddy was inspired by my Zillow clone, and he built his own for Paraguay in less than half an hour. If you haven't done this yourself, you just have no idea how cooked SaaS companies are. The decline started a long time ago with opensource alternatives. This is on steroid.