People keep asking me how I find high conviction stocks, predict price target or estimate valuation. The idea is not hard, find a company that will haul tons of profits. The doing is hard because there are so many layers complexity, obfuscation that you have to go through to understand the bottom line. Every sector is a little different. Warren Buffett said the same thing: “And you’re only looking at two things: how much revenue it will make, and when.” Understanding is difficult. I'll share a couple examples in my subscriber only.

Likely excitement comes back pre-Neutron or post Neutron. The whole space/defense sector doesn't haul profits the way other sector works...We see many deals but those deals are burden that takes a long time to execute. So i'm skeptical of the sector in general after a big run.

Some would argue $QCOM is undervalued. It's not that simple. $QCOM is just a chip designer and sends all their designs to $TSMC. They don't own the end customers, no vertical integration. Amazon had $AVGO design their TPUs, and guess what, AVGO/Broadcom sends their chip to TSMC. The only value added is designing chip. Now Amazon is doing a deal with QCOM, a company that fell behind, to design the next chip, pressuring them to undercut AVGO. Amazon serves end user on its AWS platform, one of the largest hyperscaler. They have the pricing power. Now they have 2 companies competing for the price. While $NVDA also design and sends their chip to $TSMC. They controls the CUDA stack developer ecosystem connecting to end developers. Chances are NVDA design will far outpace the price/performance of the rate of designs by QCOM/AVGO. The math is not good for $QCOM. Pure chip designer without the distribution to end developers, nor manufacturing, pressured by some of the largest company on earth. I could be wrong in the short term, but it's not a risk I'm willing to take.

Yet another reason why China can never win. China had one of the largest population in the world and they needed an ideology to control their population. Confucism was that ideology and it was the worst thing that happened to them. The ideology dictates that respect, and "maintain harmony" (eg don't argue with your superior/boss, or even to each other ) are prioritized above everything else. That means every new idea is crushed, any progressed is dashed. All progress happens top-down. In the West, it is driven by Roman Empire with ideology for debate, free thinking. There's a reason Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and the great investors choose US. They don't want sound racist, but I'm just giving it to you the truth.

This can't be good for $hims shareholders even if its for "growth". This much dilution will only drive investors out and make it difficult in future to raise funds. Build a robust, profitable business and do half share, half cash. Even Cohen knows this 😁

Waterfront Visualizer: Vibe-coded a visualization software to see my future waterfront property with 3d tiles from Google from any property address. This helps me pick the lots with the best views (360) from the vantage of all the floors. I can switch to first-person, walk around, and go through all 3 floor of the home. This took about half a day but tinkering with more features.

My buddy was inspired by my Zillow clone, and he built his own for Paraguay in less than half an hour. If you haven't done this yourself, you just have no idea how cooked SaaS companies are. The decline started a long time ago with opensource alternatives. This is on steroid.

Leopold quickly went from an autist to a retard. No wonder he delayed the filings. Trash companies: $CLSK $TE $BTDR (probably more) Flipped from calls to puts on $INTC ($159m) Over $1bil in option value long call/put in $MU Over $800m option value in long call/put in $TSM Many other options. It's irresponsible to have billions in options like that (and not your money). No discipline in picking companies. Watch closely the next 3-6 months.