THORChain could've been success story like $NEAR.
Instead, they played the 'decentralization' card while hacked funds flowed through and they earned fees.
Yet they halted the network when they themselves got hacked for $10.7M in May
I think that's a big reason why $NEAR trades at a $6.3B and $RUNE at $248M.
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It’s not cypherpunk LMAO.
It’s pussy fucking centralized shit that doesn’t work, isn’t secure, and can barely fill a fucking order for the one entity still using you: thieves and money launderers.
Build something useful for people or, yes, fucking fail.
But don’t you dare be a fucking bitch and say it’s cypherpunk
It’s not.
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+180%
Problem with conviction trades is that you also need patience.
While everything was pumping and $BP was in accumulation it really tested my patience.
Hopefully $BP finally exits accumulation and moons:
Thesis: if meme/tokenized stock narrative migrates to Solana, Backpack benefits as stock tokenization platform.
More issuance -> more arb opportunities -> more users to BP ->higher fees -> etc etc
BP has no rev share but still a fun play to look.
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You can literally track revenue/buybacks in real time on blockchains.
Block by block.
In tradfi you need to wait quarterly, yearly reports and everyone THEN trades the news.
In crypto 'trade the news' is every single block.
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This is easiest crypto bull market ever IF the high rev token meta continues.
You don't need to chase every narrative or even read much of CT.
Just open DefiLlama, Blockworks etc. and find projects with:
1. High and growing revenue
2. Revenue actually reaching token holders through payouts or buybacks
3. Low market cap relative to that holder revenue
and don't forget about emissions and unlocks too.
Then buy and hold. Simple.
Sell when the valuation gets too far ahead of realistic future revenue, or the thesis (protocol) breaks.
And you can ask your AI agent to run this due diligence weekly.
Ok, maybe the harder part is estimating future fees.
But if you believe BTC will continue to pump, more speculation WILL lead to more trading volumes and fees.
So we need to add forward looking valuations which could make tokens relatively cheaper for future fees.
$HYPE, $LIT, $PUMP etc. look like very simple trades in retrospect.
So now we need to find newer emerging protocols with high rev but that are undervalued by the market.
Finally, AI agents could keep recommending the same few tokens to all of us.
Thus concentrating 1) attention and 2) money into assets that fit the criteria and helping them pump further.
Simplest meta ever. Right?
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Binance finally listed $HYPE on spot, but still no $LIT, $VVV or $FLUID
CZ said "We list when your coin is popular enough. We follow our users"
But that feels disingenuous when insider bundled/low liquidity memes keep getting listed on Binance and promoted through Alpha.
Probably worst is that Binance is now 'sell the news' event.
Teams have to provide tokens for airdrops and marketing that go to 1) BNB or 2) FDUSD holders who JUST DUMP those tokens as yield.
No marketing is done this way. just pure sell pressure.
Scroll allocated 5.5% of its total supply to Binance Launchpool.
More recently Zama gave 45M ethereum:0xa12cc123ba206d4031d1c7f6223d1c2ec249f4f3 for 'future marketing campaigns.'
Binance used to make their users rich, but now they are exit liquidity.
it's a bull market so MAKE YOUR USERS RICH AGAIN.
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Interesting how irrelevant Binance has become to the crypto trenches.
None of the major runners are listed on Binance and all price discovery happens onchain.
And perp dexes taking their perp volumes too.
Plus, tokenized stock meta requires licenses and regulations that Binance lacks so their regulatory arbitrage isn’t paying off in this meta.
CEXs are mostly good for fiat onramp/offramp. But even for this Binance isn’t an option in the US and the EU.
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32% is higher than anyone expected.
$HYPE, $LIT and now $VAR respect and reward their traders (and referral shillers).
TGE delayed for a few weeks or months so get 12% boost with my ref link:
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Interesting how irrelevant Binance has become to the crypto trenches.
None of the major runners are listed on Binance and all price discovery happens onchain.
And perp dexes taking their perp volumes too.
Plus, tokenized stock meta requires licenses and regulations that Binance lacks so their regulatory arbitrage isn’t paying off in this meta.
CEXs are mostly good for fiat onramp/offramp. But even for this Binance isn’t an option in the US and the EU.
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This is easiest crypto bull market ever IF the high rev token meta continues.
You don't need to chase every narrative or even read much of CT.
Just open DefiLlama, Blockworks etc. and find projects with:
1. High and growing revenue
2. Revenue actually reaching token holders through payouts or buybacks
3. Low market cap relative to that holder revenue
and don't forget about emissions and unlocks too.
Then buy and hold. Simple.
Sell when the valuation gets too far ahead of realistic future revenue, or the thesis (protocol) breaks.
And you can ask your AI agent to run this due diligence weekly.
Ok, maybe the harder part is estimating future fees.
But if you believe BTC will continue to pump, more speculation WILL lead to more trading volumes and fees.
So we need to add forward looking valuations which could make tokens relatively cheaper for future fees.
$HYPE, $LIT, $PUMP etc. look like very simple trades in retrospect.
So now we need to find newer emerging protocols with high rev but that are undervalued by the market.
Finally, AI agents could keep recommending the same few tokens to all of us.
Thus concentrating 1) attention and 2) money into assets that fit the criteria and helping them pump further.
Simplest meta ever. Right?
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Damning article about the $WLFI scam:
- Promised Aave partnership. Didn't happen. Went with Dolomite instead.
- Ethena's sUSDe was supposed to be used as collateral. Didn't happen.
- Ondo stocks and Treasuries were supposed to come to WLFI. Still waiting......
Basically WLFI farmed partnership announcements for marketing.
Then:
- 'Created' a 'strategic reserve' and invited projects to contribute. Dozens sent tokens to WLFI wallets.
- Then WLFI sold most of its LINK, AAVE, ENA and MOVE lolll. Literally scammed projects?
- Then Trump's disclosures show millions received in LINK, AAVE, ENA, MOVE and ONDO from WLFI token sales :)
WLFI down by 82.5% btw with no rally despite market recovering.
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I fumbled $HYPE airdrop.
I didn't fumble $LIT airdrop and definitely not fumbling $VAR.
Probably too late to shill my ref link (but DM if needed). Points distributions should end in 8 days.
Polymarket odds below imply ~$1.5B FDV one day after launch.
~50% of VAR supply is planned for 'community' although 1st airdrop allo is not public. 25% is reasonable.
At $1.5B FDV, that's ~$750M to community. Juicy.
Actually, just Grok'ed that Variational cofounders "Lucas Schuermann and Edward Yu previously led engineering and quant trading at Genesis after it acquired their quant fund Qu Capital in 2019."
Seems bullish to me.
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Buying variational points at $100/point, DM me
If I really make it this cycle, you'll know from the quality of my tweets going down.
Memecoins are ONE CYCLE trade. You trade them, but never HODL them.
I mean $WIF was THE MEME last cycle with Ansem putting it on the LA Sphere*
Now, the chart looks like that ↓ and mindshare-wise it is dead.
And for a meme to lose mindshare is DEATH.
$FARTCOIN? Same story despite huge success beyond CT.
$DOGE is an exception as it survived TWO cycles. But it is not really strong runner anymore.
This short lifespan makes it different from the main crypto meme - Bitcoin which manages to reinvent itself.
Anyway, whatever you think of solana:HcRLc9VDgjLeK154xDawfb1dmVJ98DoSqcwTHGqiDeJR, $CASHCAT etc etc., just make sure to sell them.
Very simple lesson yet too many become married to their bags
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One of the things I have changed my mind on this cycle is that meme coin trading is a fad or short lived phenomena.
It's not.
I thought it was a solved game, but the variance due to internet culture seems to keep the game going, alongside the addictive nature of gambling.
I am actually not a fan of gambling, and have a close family member who suffers from this addiction, but I accept that millions of people want to/need to gamble for various reasons: entertainment, desire to elevate one's station, desperation, boredom etc.
The lottery has atrocious odds, but it is the gambling game that the majority of the world have played for almost the last 100 hundred years. If you add up the combined sum a regular person has lost in their life playing the lottery is significant. It is kind of like a tax on poor people.
The internet + blockchains have enabled digital slot machines/lottery games in the form of infinite token creation. The dopamine hits that come with this form of gambling are the strongest of any gambling game imo.
No matter how much you hate this it is simply not going away.
You now have many ways to invest in the underlying infrastructure related to this form of internet gambling. Last cycle the cleanest proxy was SOL.
This time around you have launchpads with differing mechanisms that allow the game to be played in different ways.
Some are more aligned with their holders than others, but all are seeing rising interest and adoption metrics.
Other opportunities remain in the private markets like FOMO, but they possibly may airdrop one day who knows.
The activity will ebb and flow with manic peaks and big lows as the the flows are carried by speculation seen in other areas of the market, becoming more liquid as wealth trickles into onchain gambling.
Again, hating on this is futile. You are better off ignoring it if it bothers you. Gambling is big business in the real world, and there are extremely profitable businesses in that sector.
Everyone loses on slot machines in Vegas, and yet the people keep coming back to play them with the hope of hitting it big one day.
There is a lot of total bullshit happening with KOLs, and bundling etc. I am not condoning that at all. And I steer away from that completely, and encourage you to do so as well.
Redacted people are going to do redacted things even though they actually know they are being robbed and scammed. You can't stop this.
You don't have to speculate on a single individual memecoin coin, and I actually don't think it is +EV to do so.
But it's clear there are going to be giant onchain internet gambling infra winners here, and you can capture that opportunity if you want to.
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We should've moved past Blind signing a long time ago.
You can be tricked into approving a malicious transaction if you can't understand what you're signing.
A familiar dapp can look completely normal even when its frontend has been compromised.
Too much has already been lost this way.
Glad to see Trezor pushing Clear Signing forward and addressing this major problem in DeFi UX.
We need this across far more dapps and wallets.
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What will pump hard after $NEAR ?
$FLUID
Short appreciation post to $ARB for breaking the L2 curse and showing that L2 tokens can have value.
ARB is up ~123% in 30 days vs $OP ~18%.
Arbitrum proved you CAN ACTUALLY monetize technical IP through Robinhood's fee sharing model.
The DAO earned $6.19M in H1. Standard Chartered now gives ARB a $10 target by 2030.
From ~$0.22 today...
Their thesis is more banks and fintechs launch chains on Arbitrum -> more licensing revenue.
But DAO revenue doesn't automatically reach $ARB holders.
There's a DAO discussion asking for a plan connecting growing revenue to the token. but still early.
Btw, OP could've probably done better if Base hadn't left the Superchain and ended its original revenue sharing deal.
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We should've moved past Blind signing a long time ago.
You can be tricked into approving a malicious transaction if you can't understand what you're signing.
A familiar dapp can look completely normal even when its frontend has been compromised.
Too much has already been lost this way.
Glad to see Trezor pushing Clear Signing forward and addressing this major problem in DeFi UX.
We need this across far more dapps and wallets.
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Short appreciation post to $ARB for breaking the L2 curse and showing that L2 tokens can have value.
ARB is up ~123% in 30 days vs $OP ~18%.
Arbitrum proved you CAN ACTUALLY monetize technical IP through Robinhood's fee sharing model.
The DAO earned $6.19M in H1. Standard Chartered now gives ARB a $10 target by 2030.
From ~$0.22 today...
Their thesis is more banks and fintechs launch chains on Arbitrum -> more licensing revenue.
But DAO revenue doesn't automatically reach $ARB holders.
There's a DAO discussion asking for a plan connecting growing revenue to the token. but still early.
Btw, OP could've probably done better if Base hadn't left the Superchain and ended its original revenue sharing deal.
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Few things more beautiful than cascading short liquidations on a Monday morning
$BP tested my patience but thesis is strong:
- New CEX of the cycle play (every bull has one. Last time it was a DEX (HL))
- Tokenized stocks moat on Solana: real equities, not wrappers with SEC recent regulation being bullish
- Flywheel: more issuance → arb → users → fees
- Tokenomics: 0% team at TGE, milestone unlocks to users, stake 1yr → equity/IPO
- Solana needs this to become Nasdaq onchain (ex-FTX team + EU license + MiCA)
Two concerns:
- Unlocks are milestone based and Backpack hasn't published update yet. So I believe another issuance is around the corner as many milestones are reached
- Illiquid as hell but still one of my bags
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Hopefully $BP finally exits accumulation and moons:
Thesis: if meme/tokenized stock narrative migrates to Solana, Backpack benefits as stock tokenization platform.
More issuance -> more arb opportunities -> more users to BP ->higher fees -> etc etc
BP has no rev share but still a fun play to look.
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Variational $VAR likely TGEs into perfect market:
RWAs, tokenization and perps are all having strong tailwinds.
September 30 is likely last day for points and ~50% of $VAR is allocated. Although not all will be distributed at the 1st airdrop.
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These dividend-memes are liquidity time bombs:
When trading volume decreases, HODL payouts drop and whales get tempted to dump.
$ZCAT has a ~$105m MC but ~$4.3m liquidity across all Solana pools I checked.
In its main $1.88m ZCAT/ZEC pool, a $100k sell implied a 16% dump
That's less than 0.1% of market cap.
Sell $250k: 35%.
STONK looks better. Its main $7.1m SPYx pool has:
- $100k sell: 1.5% drop
- $250k sell: 3.7% drop
Around 4x more liquidity, but 10x less price impact. LPs have concentrated more capital around the current price.
Reason is because the mechanism making ZCAT attractive to hold makes it more expensive to LP:
the 3% transfer tax funding its ZEC payouts also impacts LP deposits and withdrawals.
You cant rebalance your position often!
STONK is a simple SPL token so better to LP.
I used ChatGPT Astra for these calculations so might be mistakes.
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