At 6pm ET, I am joined by @jonbma from @artemis to discuss Anthropic's historic IPO. I'll also be picking his brain on enterprise AI implementation and what's happening right now in crypto! Link below.

$HOOD The Robinhood Chain isn't seeing quite as robust revenues, but it's less than a week away from exceeding $50m in cumulative fees. What happens then? They shift from a 50/50 revenue share model to a 70/30 split in favor of Robinhood.

$HOOD There was much consternation last week over tokenization, largely because tokenization of stocks (while still small) has surged thanks to the Robinhood Chain. Beyond people just believing it should never be done, or somehow that companies are lying about 1:1 backing (and questions about how this mechanism works over the weekend), there are 3 realistic concerns for tokenized stocks. 1⃣ Dividends - This has largely been solved by effectively using the drip method as applied to the token. 2⃣ Voting rights - My largest concern. That's coming, per Vlad. 3⃣ In-kind redemption. Also coming. Is more regulatory framework needed? Probably. But companies like Robinhood are establishing precedent which benefits the whole ecosystem.

$PLTR I believe yesterday's $NVDA partnership is going to accelerate Nvidia's revenue, and substantially bolster Palantir's client count (especially international clients) while fueling revenue. It may be the most significant partnership announced this year for Palantir. Link below to the free article on @artemis.

$HOOD keeps on trucking, up 15%. That's two $3m+ revenue days back-to-back for the Robinhood Chain. This probably isn't sustainable this early, but what if it is much sooner than expected?

$FIGR Here's the thing with the Kiavi acquisition: their revenue will explode. Kiavi did $7.8b last year with a take rate of 3.2% (RTL loans, given short durations, have a smaller yield, and are ~85% of Kiavi's volume). Kiavi noted they did $734m in originations in March, their highest ever. Although this was 6 months ago, and Kiavi shows durable growth, let's pretend that they average "just" $700m per month for the last 4 months of the year. This implies $67.5m in Q4. However, Figure also took on $600m in senior notes at 8.5% interest, so there's a ~$12.5m additional cost. We'll ignore the $35m in cost savings Figure said would be realized within 24 months (probably weighted towards the end and I believe is an ARR). That immediately adds $55m to Q4 (and ~$18m to Q3). For Figure, and I would assume Kiavi (due to seasonality), Q4 is sequentially weaker than Q3, but is up quite a bit from Q2. However, growth is absolutely accelerating due to partners onboarding and expanding their usage of the platform. Figure grew revenue 35% Q/Q from Q1 to Q2.Analysts presume revenue will grow from $225m to $252, a 12% sequential growth rate. In other words, they are assuming no Kiavi revenue will be generated in September (~$18m conservative estimate vs the "only" $27m sequential growth in Q3). Analysts may be wildly underestimating Figure's revenue in Q3. This is also true in Q4. Let's go with the analyst Q3 number for now. Given the 2 prior years and their performance vs Q3, we might expect a $22m drop at worst, bringing them down to $230m. Analysts? They're expecting $245m, somehow ignoring the ~$55m generated by Kiavi. So analysts appear to be: - Not counting on Kiavi revenue, perhaps at all in 2026. - If they do count Kiavi, they are not believing their March #'s or in continued growth. - They are also not believing the acceleration for Figure seen in Q2 is durable (and it is indeed - what's happening with partners onboarding and the new loan categories should not be overlooked). - Not believing efficiency gains could be had (to be fair, it's probably not much this year). - Not believing bringing the Kiavi tech to Figure partners will add anything to growth (to be fair, it probably won't this year). - Not believing that Figure's double dip with Sixth Street (using Demo Prime and CLM) is accretive. They're forecasting for "only" 53% Y/Y growth in Q4. I think 90% looks more likely. Of course, not all of this is profit and it's on the lower side of the take rate (first liens are, especially RTL's). I have to ask: am I missing something? Or are analysts completely missing the mark?

$FIGR Here's the thing with the Kiavi acquisition: their revenue will explode. Kiavi did $7.8b last year with a take rate of 3.2% (RTL loans, given short durations, have a smaller yield, and are ~85% of Kiavi's volume). Kiavi noted they did $734m in originations in March, their highest ever. Although this was 6 months ago, and Kiavi shows durable growth, let's pretend that they average "just" $700m per month for the last 4 months of the year. This implies $67.5m in Q4. However, Figure also took on $600m in senior notes at 8.5% interest, so there's a ~$12.5m additional cost. We'll ignore the $35m in cost savings Figure said would be realized within 24 months (probably weighted towards the end and I believe is an ARR). That immediately adds $55m to Q4 (and ~$18m to Q3). For Figure, and I would assume Kiavi (due to seasonality), Q4 is sequentially weaker than Q3, but is up quite a bit from Q2. However, growth is absolutely accelerating due to partners onboarding and expanding their usage of the platform. Figure grew revenue 35% Q/Q from Q1 to Q2.Analysts presume revenue will grow from $225m to $252, a 12% sequential growth rate. In other words, they are assuming no Kiavi revenue will be generated in September (~$18m conservative estimate vs the "only" $27m sequential growth in Q3). Analysts may be wildly underestimating Figure's revenue in Q3. This is also true in Q4. Let's go with the analyst Q3 number for now. Given the 2 prior years and their performance vs Q3, we might expect a $22m drop at worst, bringing them down to $230m. Analysts? They're expecting $245m, somehow ignoring the ~$55m generated by Kiavi. So analysts appear to be: - Not counting on Kiavi revenue, perhaps at all in 2026. - If they do count Kiavi, they are not believing their March #'s or in continued growth. - They are also not believing the acceleration for Figure seen in Q2 is durable (and it is indeed - what's happening with partners onboarding and the new loan categories should not be overlooked). - Not believing efficiency gains could be had (to be fair, it's probably not much this year). - Not believing bringing the Kiavi tech to Figure partners will add anything to growth (to be fair, it probably won't this year). - Not believing that Figure's double dip with Sixth Street (using Demo Prime and CLM) is accretive. They're forecasting for "only" 53% Y/Y growth in Q4. I think 90% looks more likely. Of course, not all of this is profit and it's on the lower side of the take rate (first liens are, especially RTL's). I have to ask: am I missing something? Or are analysts completely missing the mark?

$PLTR September is usually government contract season. Looks like we're starting off things well with 8 TITAN units to be produced for the Army. Palantir, the first software prime, leads and benefits from this project.

$CRWV CoreWeave was a known partner of $CRWD, but we found out today at Crowdstrike's fal.con that their Safemind offering, which uses $NVDA's nemotron open source model, is trained on CoreWeave's AI cloud.

$FIGR Figure closed its acquisition of Kiavi! They get the platform, and Sixth Street gets their loan book (and commits to do quite a bit of lending via Figure). This is a huge acquisition which is going to help Figure not only maintain their ~100% growth rate for the next 6+ quarters, but continue to grow into their long-term vision. Kiavi accelerates Figure's "Year of First Lien" push, and is Figures first large third-party acquisition ($538m). Here's a few bullet points: - This acquisition is immediately EBITDA accretive. - In 2025, Kiavi was doing $250m in revenue and $100m+ EBITDA. - Management anticipates this will add $100-$200m in Democratized Prime volume monthly. - Management has guided that 40% of the Consumer Loan Marketplace will be first liens, with $7b in volume added. - Management also expects $35m in cost efficiencies to be realized within 24 months from the integration of Figure's tech within the Kiavi platform. - The unlevered FCF payback of this deal is expected in less than 4 years (my opinion: it may be fewer than 3). - Adaptor, their AI uniformity tool, is being showcased here. It helped Agora auto assets transition rapidly, it's one of the reasons their flywheel is accelerating so fast (and partners are skipping that intermediate step as alluded to on the earnings call), and it's being used here to "impose uniformity to disparate originator data schemes across all asset types in Figure Connect and Democratized Prime." TAKEAWAY: Figure was already thriving, and this acquisition is likely to help them maintain 100% Y/Y growth for the next 1.5 years. Q4 is going This is a great acquisition to help them accelerate in the first lien category, across two different lending products: residential transition loans (RTL) and debt-service-coverage-ratio (DSCR). Both should do well managed by Figure, especially the shorter-term RTL's: that's a category they should absolutely dominate. @mcagney, Figure's co-founder and executive chairman said to Kiavi employees: "You’ve built a market-leader by getting into the weeds, having the highest quality bar, being obsessed with data, and executing every single day. That builder mindset is exactly what drives the Figure team, and it’s what will power our next combined chapter. Welcome to Figure. Together we soar!"

Trump continues to weigh in on data centers. I don't think local jobs is the best argument, as many jobs fade once the data centers are built, but if the buildout is stymied, it'll be felt in the broader economy. Long $CRWV