. @arc is now live on Dune. Arc, a Layer-1 blockchain developed by Circle for stablecoin finance, launches mainnet today, with DTCC, ICE, and MoneyGram among the founding validators helping secure the network. Payments, FX, lending, treasury, capital markets settlement, all Arc data is on Dune from the first block.

Prediction markets already function as a live read on Fed policy. The chart shows implied expected Fed cuts for 2025, Kalshi vs Polymarket, updated daily. The two venues move within a tight band of each other most of the year, with the widest gap opening up around April 2025. That gap, and how fast it closed, could be a signal. Fed-related markets have already passed 2025’s full-year count, rising from 535 in 2025 to 822 so far in 2026. Notional volume is at $984M+ YTD, already 89% of 2025’s full-year total. For a desk running its own rate view, that's a continuous cross-check sitting next to futures and swaps. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune:

NEW FINDING: This is very cool to see our @21shares @Dune Solana dashboard used in the economic paper of @cavemanloverboy and @temporal_xyz to propose splitting transaction fees to align costs with resource consumption (SIMD-0553) Also proud to see ex-researcher on my team, @0xcarlosg now at @Blockworks being referenced as well. cc @solana

For 8 years, @dune has served crypto businesses and the wider crypto community with our industry leading data platform. Today we are announcing that we are changing Dune's free plan and how access to the product works

Today we are announcing that we are making the @Dune free plan view only. Meaning you can still look at all the amazing dashboards on Dune, but not run queries without a paid plan. The simple reason is that compute costs for running flexible queries over large amounts of data is very costly. We will still offer incredible value for money self-serve plans at $65 and $349 per month where you have access to vast amounts of blockchain data with completely serverless and hassle free querying. You can also try our very popular and powerful Plus plan on a 14 day trial when you sign up for a free account. For years Dune has had a very generous free plan including free compute an data access. Hundreds of thousands of users have queried blockchain data with Dune, and millions of people have been exploring the dashboards created. We know of hundreds of users that have built a data career on top of Dune, and there are likely many more. We are grateful to everyone that’s been exploring this data together with us. I’m proud and humbled that we’ve gone from @mewwts, me, some blockchain data in a postgres db and a few users in a Telegram channel, to reaching millions with the Dune platform and community. During Dune’s 8+ years in business countless data providers have come and gone. And I can tell you that what is worse than losing access to free compute is to lose your mission critical data provider all together. The reason why we’ve been able to stick around, and will keep sticking around, is because we adjust to the market. Thousands of industry leading businesses rely on Dune for their blockchain data, and they can safely keep doing that. Some have called these plan changes the end of an era. And that might be right, but I think the new era is going to be bigger and more exciting. The blockchain industry is now mature enough that businesses and financial institutions are coming onchain at a blistering pace. Dune is all in on empowering them with onchain data. During this new era Dune data will keep reaching millions of people, businesses and AIs in our mission to make onchain finance observable.

Kalshi's commodities markets cleared $100M+ over the last 180 days. Polymarket traded $3.6B+ on Iran-US tensions and the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude and US Retail Gas account for $48.5M and $28.7M of Kalshi's total. Both venues also run markets tracking Strait of Hormuz transit directly, a live read on the chokepoint a large share of the world's oil supply moves through. Hedge funds and asset managers are already pulling prediction market trading patterns into their models. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune:

flying to NYC next week for the RWA Summit. tokenization gets talked about in trillions of projections what i care about is what is actually onchain today and whether anyone can measure it find me in BK & NYC during the week if you want to look at real numbers @rwasummit

Prediction markets cleared $13B+ across categories like politics, finance, technology, world events, weather, and culture, combined across Polymarket and Kalshi. Finance alone is $2.08B, and its five biggest markets all track Fed rate decisions, repriced hourly ahead of every FOMC meeting. A few other markets on the list work the same way, as a cross-asset signal hedge funds and asset managers can actually use: • "US forces enter Iran" and ceasefire markets, tracking the geopolitical risk premium under oil. • US government shutdown odds, a fiscal read that moves in real time. • Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair, a direct market view on monetary policy direction. Every one of these is priced by traders putting capital behind an outcome, updated in real time. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune:

. @nvidia reports Q2 earnings on Wednesday, and @Polymarket has eleven contracts on the result. The earnings beat is priced at 96% and has barely moved since the contract opened on 13 August. Where traders still disagree is the data centre revenue ladder: above $85B went from 55% to 91% in a single session, while above $90B sits at 25%. 28 companies carry the same earnings beat contract this week. Odds mostly track consensus, with the median across the 14 technology names at 93% and only HP at 72% and Marvell at 77% below 80%. The exceptions are what make these markets particularly worth following. Every earnings market, and every other market on @Kalshi and Polymarket, sits in one normalized dataset on Dune:

. @business reported on 20 August that @AnthropicAI is preparing to file publicly for an IPO as soon as the end of the month, targeting a raise that matches or beats SpaceX's record $75B. @Kalshi and @Polymarket list contracts on both parts of that: when Anthropic lists, and what it will be worth. Kalshi's odds of an IPO announcement by 1 October doubled, 22% to 48%. Polymarket's odds of shares trading by 30 September doubled, 11% to 23%. But Polymarket's expectations for what Anthropic will be worth didn't change. Traders still see it listing around $2.0–2.25T, roughly twice the $965B May round. To unlock complete data across Kalshi and Polymarket, access Dune prediction market data:

The @CFTC is seeking public comment on compute derivatives, including perpetual compute futures. We just recently published on this: what prediction markets and perpetuals already show about the cost of compute and where the leverage in the AI trade sits. Read the full note here:

Major US retailers report Q2 earnings this week. Home Depot beat this morning, $4.92 against $4.73 consensus. Lowe's and Target follow Wednesday, Walmart Thursday. @Polymarket lists earnings-beat markets on many of these names, and the prices are being quoted as consumer sentiment. Most sit high, but S&P companies beat consensus 75-80% of the time, so that is roughly the base rate. Walmart is the outlier at 75%, down from 86% earlier this month. Caveat worth stating: these markets opened on 5 August and volume is still very thin. $36,178 across all 23 consumer names, with five wallets accounting for 69% of it. Every figure above comes from the prediction markets dataset on Dune: trade-level data across Polymarket and Kalshi, normalized to a single schema, with history back to 2021.

For the first time since 1996, central banks hold more gold than Treasuries by market value, 27% vs 22% of reserves (ECB). Price up ~10% in August. Gold is also @Kalshi's largest commodity market: $33.3M of last week's record volume of $67.4M, roughly 12x vs a month ago, across 1M+ trades on 15-minute price direction. Complete and normalized prediction market data available at

According to the FT, some of @AnthropicAI's backers expect $2T or more at an October IPO. On @Polymarket, Anthropic reaching $2T or more by year-end has risen from 41% overnight to 55%, and $2.5T rose 8 points on the day. Prediction market data on Dune, every trade across Polymarket and Kalshi:

Robinhood Chain has been rivaling established chains just one month after launch. Thanks @NexusDataLabs for the opportunity to contribute with our data. The full chain is curated on Dune, alongside every other chain we index

US CPI lands Wednesday, one of the last major data points before the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Consensus is 3.4% YoY. @Vanguard_Group says 3.3%. Prediction markets ($2.9M in volume combined) have been drifting toward Vanguard: while 3.4% leads (43% on @Kalshi, 42% on @Polymarket), 3.3% was at 31% four days ago, now 36%. Over the same stretch, September hike odds fell from 49% to 45% on both venues. Access Dune's prediction markets dataset, a consolidated tape across Kalshi and Polymarket:

Prediction markets already function as a live read on Fed policy. The chart shows implied expected Fed cuts for 2025, Kalshi vs Polymarket, updated daily. The two venues move within a tight band of each other most of the year, with the widest gap opening up around April 2025. That gap, and how fast it closed, could be a signal. Fed-related markets have already passed 2025’s full-year count, rising from 535 in 2025 to 822 so far in 2026. Notional volume is at $984M+ YTD, already 89% of 2025’s full-year total. For a desk running its own rate view, that's a continuous cross-check sitting next to futures and swaps. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune:

Kalshi's commodities markets cleared $100M+ over the last 180 days. Polymarket traded $3.6B+ on Iran-US tensions and the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude and US Retail Gas account for $48.5M and $28.7M of Kalshi's total. Both venues also run markets tracking Strait of Hormuz transit directly, a live read on the chokepoint a large share of the world's oil supply moves through. Hedge funds and asset managers are already pulling prediction market trading patterns into their models. Explore Prediction Markets data on Dune: