Major US retailers report Q2 earnings this week. Home Depot beat this morning, $4.92 against $4.73 consensus. Lowe's and Target follow Wednesday, Walmart Thursday. @Polymarket lists earnings-beat markets on many of these names, and the prices are being quoted as consumer sentiment. Most sit high, but S&P companies beat consensus 75-80% of the time, so that is roughly the base rate. Walmart is the outlier at 75%, down from 86% earlier this month. Caveat worth stating: these markets opened on 5 August and volume is still very thin. $36,178 across all 23 consumer names, with five wallets accounting for 69% of it. Every figure above comes from the prediction markets dataset on Dune: trade-level data across Polymarket and Kalshi, normalized to a single schema, with history back to 2021.