Alright I’m coming around to this perspective. I still hope for a galaxy brain F_un solution but the possibility of an ANT bash succeeding is high enough that I now guess RH to be second-soonest, after Yang-Mills mass gap.
I try not to let hype steer my Bayesian priors on these things, but my actual *personal* belief is RH may very likely fall by the end of next year.
Sure, people want to see F_1-geo, noncom algebra, Deninger cohomology, etc, but I think AI will soon be capable of theory building.