Appreciate you showing genuine curiosity here unlike most people I've interacted with on this issue. Part of why I started throwing large wager offers around is it was the only way to call out most of those larpers on their bluff. But since you're interested, I'll say what I can here. Some of my info is whispers from insiders I trust, which I'm not going to repeat here. I'll rely atm on arguments that mostly do not depend on them. First off, the smart money has been that the lab rumors were regarding a new case of the Hodge Conjecture. This has been true at least since the guest post on Terry's blog on 9/11, which seems to vaguely suggest awareness such a result has been achieved. A popular interpretation in the High Math Circles is that it's hinting at Hodge for abelian varieties, and Brockman's claim of substantial progress is consistent with that [I'll explicitly say: no one I've talked to has explicitly confirmed that theory, but conversations I've had have significantly increased my credence on it]. The Information article is unlikely to have new info beyond that. The mole Palazzolo spoke to added two new things beyond the previous public record: 1) It's Hodge (duh), and 2) "We're close to solving the full thing." The latter I very strongly doubt, and sounds like the embellishment of a non-math savvy insider who heard about the substantial progress. I'm going to be very clear: Hodge for abelien varieties has long been seen as more in-reach than full Hodge and the profs I talk do not think that's substantial evidence in favor of full Hodge falling anytime soon. Remember, many OpenAI lab employees believed and spread the originally-quiet rumor that Anthropic had fully solved two Millennium Problems, which we now can be nearly certain is false. It's fair to acknowledge that the new round of OpenAI hype is a touch more credible on the basis of "well they're closer to the source this time." But I maintain that everything we've seen is fully explainable by the same credulous insiders as the ones to blame for the last round of bullshit getting confused on how much progress the new case of Hodge is. And my final argument: Hodge hard

Appreciate you showing genuine curiosity here unlike most people I've interacted with on this issue. Part of why I started throwing large wager offers around is it was the only way to call out most of those larpers on their bluff. But since you're interested, I'll say what I can here. Some of my info is whispers from insiders I trust, which I'm not going to repeat here. I'll rely atm on arguments that mostly do not depend on them. First off, the smart money has been that the lab rumors were regarding a new case of the Hodge Conjecture. This has been true at least since the guest post on Terry's blog on 9/11, which seems to vaguely suggest awareness such a result has been achieved. A popular interpretation in the High Math Circles is that it's hinting at Hodge for abelian varieties, and Brockman's claim of substantial progress is consistent with that [I'll explicitly say: no one I've talked to has explicitly confirmed that theory, but conversations I've had have significantly increased my credence on it]. The Information article is unlikely to have new info beyond that. The mole Palazzolo spoke to added two new things beyond the previous public record: 1) It's Hodge (duh), and 2) "We're close to solving the full thing." The latter I very strongly doubt, and sounds like the embellishment of a non-math savvy insider who heard about the substantial progress. I'm going to be very clear: Hodge for abelien varieties has long been seen as more in-reach than full Hodge and the profs I talk do not think that's substantial evidence in favor of full Hodge falling anytime soon. Remember, many OpenAI lab employees believed and spread the originally-quiet rumor that Anthropic had fully solved two Millennium Problems, which we now can be nearly certain is false. It's fair to acknowledge that the new round of OpenAI hype is a touch more credible on the basis of "well they're closer to the source this time." But I maintain that everything we've seen is fully explainable by the same credulous insiders as the ones to blame for the last round of bullshit getting confused on how much progress the new case of Hodge is. And my final argument: Hodge hard

Fenix: Defeat in this arena cannot be tolerated. For what of Justice if we men of law fail here? The heart and soul of the gavel cries out for it. Mile: Come now, dear one. Open your eyes to the truth of this false `` Justice `` that you pray to! The gavel cries, yes, but for your blood. Fenix: Can the answer be hidden in his words after all? Will he convince even God of his truth? Oh Justice! Don't turn your face from me! Only one way left... The word of power... Mile: My `` Truth `` has consumed your `` Justice `` ! It is known, there was no other way. Does an alternative exist? > O B J E C T ! Fenix: One hope remains! For you never found the murder weapon! It is ME! I am the murder weapon! Mile: I cannot accept it! Fenix: This is my Justice! Pour all of your guilt into me! INTO ME !!!!!!!!

The current pace of peer review just isn’t compatible with the rate of improvement in AI models. It’s an exercise in absurdity for reviewers (who aren’t paid btw) to spend months on papers that will likely be far superseded by the time their reports are complete.

Concrete example of Twitter's broken search and timelines. This post: [ is invisible to both search [ as well as my timeline, under all 3 of my tabs. Someone asked me about it and I had to resort to Chrome history to find it!

“They know that you don’t say ‘significant progress’ unless it’s done.” $25k wager even odds then? I’ll even amend the victory condition: you win if there is broad consensus in 3 months time that a lab had solved a Millennium Prize Problem by 9/15. Feel free to workshop it.

Thank you for sparing math academia the terror of undergrads getting access to the tool that's increasingly essential to modern math research. We can rest assured they'll all spend the next 6 years of their lives writing pencil and proofs and everything will go back to normal.