Epoch AI(@EpochAIResearch):We’ve updated the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) to use a Bayesian methodology. This improves uncertainty estimates and lets us compare models more accurately, even when their individual ECI uncertainty intervals overlap. Frontier model scores are largely unchanged: models stronger than GPT-4 move by less than 1 ECI point on average.

Epoch AI

@EpochAIResearch

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Epoch AI@EpochAIResearch

2026.11.04 21:31

We’ve updated the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) to use a Bayesian methodology. This improves uncertainty estimates and lets us compare models more accurately, even when their individual ECI uncertainty intervals overlap. Frontier model scores are largely unchanged: models stronger than GPT-4 move by less than 1 ECI point on average.