Treasury Traders Bet on Bond Rally Ahead of US Jobs Report
US Treasury traders are positioning for further gains in government bonds ahead of the October employment report, as expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes continue to weaken. A global stock market selloff has boosted demand for safe-haven assets, pushing Treasury yields to their lowest levels since early September, with the 10-year yield at 4.82%. Some options traders are betting that yields could fall further, potentially reaching 4.7% or even 4.35% in the coming weeks.
Investors expect October nonfarm payrolls to increase by 65,000, compared with September’s 29,000 gain. However, even stronger-than-expected employment data may not derail the bond rally, as many investors are prepared to buy Treasuries if prices decline. Meanwhile, falling oil prices have eased inflation expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Markets are now closely watching upcoming employment and inflation data ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting.