Ed Bradford
@Fullcarry
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
453 Following 55.2K Followers
At this point, NFP is just a minor curiosity.
It could end up being a one and done hike cycle.
FFZ7 yield down 15.5 bps today. UST 2s30s with one of its largest day-over-day steepenings in the past year. Those lamenting no bond reaction, look to the front.
1-year inflation swap down 11 bps to 2.05%
Hike cycle terminal rate down to 4.42. It was north of 4.90 in late Sept
@Fullcarry Bonds/STIR Traders right now…
CPI early next week will matter more than NFP tomorrow but both a bit downgraded as market looking to the medium term and odds of a capex bust. Either way, not a bad time to hedge for a strong CPI here with Dec hike odds down to 75%
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Should Fed heads look out the window and interrogate reality, they'll notice financial conditions are less spicy. Probably too soon to affect near term rate path but something to watch. USTs firming up here
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Just reward for Americans who voted and want lower inflation. Crude driven inflation swap now below 2.30%
CRWV refusing to participate in the excitement
ISM employment gauge firmer and above 50
The victory was so sweet, I have decided to be maganamous
Duration dump is coming from inside the House
The UST spread dearest to my heart has now steepened more than 20 bps since Sept 22nd
2s5s
Dramatic post-settlement sell-off
1-year forward 2s topping 5%
Investment Grade Yield-To-Worst index is now at year-to-date highs. Some issuers may decide to back off if funding costs continue to rise
August was a refunding month with brand new 10s, 20s, and 30s so a larger extension today at 4 pm
