One thing that's v clear is that the mkt is incredibly good at finding alternatives when there is huge pricing growth in short periods of time, even if it is an entrenched monopolist pulling the pricing lever. A few examples come to mind:
- Booli's share gain from Hemnet
- VantageScore and $FICO
- PMA in the aerospace industry when OEMs raise prices too aggressively
- The push to redesign AI systems and workloads to reduce DRAM/HBM intensity as memory prices have surged
We have unfortunately been on the wrong side of this and in the cases of HEM and FICO overestimated how defensible those moats were. Take up pricing aggressively enough in a short span of time and there's a decent chance the mkt will find an alternative.
Essentially the human mind needs time to habituate to change. So, if a company raises prices too quickly, it interferes with our ability to incorporate these higher prices into a new normal.