Presumably AI is very +ve for expert networks like GLG. That sort of domain knowledge will become increasingly valuable (not on the internet for AI to train on), and with AI at a point where it can run expert calls autonomously, you'd expect to see an explosion in call volumes.

Still plenty of other restaurant names with v elevated multiples. I get why mkt has lapped up restaurant rollout stories - boundable unit economics & often guided end state restaurant count = fairly good visibility on growth path (no AI disruption). Cracks appearing though...

“A recent, first-of-a-kind study out of MIT shows that an over-reliance on tools like chatGPT leads to a massive decline in cognitive function”. I don’t think we’re even remotely prepared for the unintended consequences from AI.

One thing that's v clear is that the mkt is incredibly good at finding alternatives when there is huge pricing growth in short periods of time, even if it is an entrenched monopolist pulling the pricing lever. A few examples come to mind: - Booli's share gain from Hemnet - VantageScore and $FICO - PMA in the aerospace industry when OEMs raise prices too aggressively - The push to redesign AI systems and workloads to reduce DRAM/HBM intensity as memory prices have surged We have unfortunately been on the wrong side of this and in the cases of HEM and FICO overestimated how defensible those moats were. Take up pricing aggressively enough in a short span of time and there's a decent chance the mkt will find an alternative.

We bought $NOW during the carnage and it’s been a top 5 pos for us. What was interesting was the conversations we had with some allocators when explaining our decision earlier in the year. A number of them had such strong views that software was dead and expressed discomfort that we were just “waiting it out” in a name like NOW with no visibility on what would cause the stock to turn around. We were practically laughed out of the room by some of these allocators when we told them we’d shifted a chunk of the book into software during the zenith of the AI boom trade in May/June. There’s signal in that.

My mate has a ps5 and is contemplating buying a ps5 pro just to get the most out of GTA VI. I’m wondering whether I should upgrade my TV for the game. I don’t think there’s ever been a more anticipated media title.

$DKS just another example of an optically cheap stock getting taken out the back and shot. No real valuation floor in this market if you're going to miss to that extent. We've left money on the table a number of times on the short side by covering names that are facing issues but start to look cheap, and then subsequently leg down massively. Those "cheap" but challenged stocks where their issues are worsening often make the best shorts vs trying to find another player in the space that's better quality/higher multiple. But also important to balance the willingness to short something that's cheap with knowing when to cover once the 2nd derivative flips positive and investors will find ways to start getting positive on the story again. There's usually the risk of extrapolating recent negative trends, overstaying your welcome, and then roundtripping any gains on the short once the mkt starts to look through to the recovery.

Have been thinking about this more and more lately in this mkt. From our latest qtrly: “We have observed that news is being priced into stocks more quickly, and that there is a higher-than-ever propensity for the market to pull forward investment returns when a stock’s narrative turns favourable and aligns with the thematic du jour. A stock might compress two years’ worth of returns into two months if investors turn giddy about that stock’s narrative and growth prospects. And while there is typically a kernel of truth underpinning an explosive re-rate of a stock, it’s important to recognise when the market has moved too much of a stock’s future gains to the present. Given the wider band in which a stock’s multiple is likely to fluctuate, we believe that more than ever, there are opportunities for value creation in flexing position sizes to take advantage of the multiple de-rate/re-rate cycle.”

Essentially the human mind needs time to habituate to change. So, if a company raises prices too quickly, it interferes with our ability to incorporate these higher prices into a new normal.