China's export controls are squeezing the AI hardware supply chain: China accounts for ~79% of global tungsten production, producing ~67,000 metric tons of the world's 85,000 metric tons in 2025. Tungsten is used to manufacture extremely hard drill bits that create tiny holes in circuit boards and chip substrates used in computers and AI servers, allowing electrical connections between different layers. Meanwhile, China's export restrictions on tungsten-related materials introduced in early 2025 have tightened supplies, sending benchmark tungsten prices from 212,750 yuan per ton in February 2025 to more than 530,000 yuan, an increase of nearly +150%. In addition, prices outside China are reportedly up to 3 times domestic levels, while micro-drill bit prices have surged severalfold. AI demand is driving increasingly complex circuit boards and chip substrates, intensifying demand for precision drilling while creating shortages for suppliers across Japan, Taiwan, the US and Europe. China's grip on a critical AI supply-chain material is tightening.