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Hamidreza Azizi
@HamidRezaAz
PhD | Senior Iran Analyst @CrisisGroup | Views are my own | RTs ≠ endorsements
838 Following    125.7K Followers
From what I understand, the #Iran#|ian leadership knows that if there is a chance for a deal, it is more likely before the midterms than after them. Hence the fast-track packaging of the proposal. However, in terms of content, there is no change, except for the fact that they say there is already an agreement on Hormuz with Oman on the table that the U.S. can/must accept as a baseline for further negotiations. That's actually the key factor that compresses the timeline, reducing the 30-day window of the MOU to seven days. Apart from that, it is exactly the MOU. It is also in that context that talk about potential Iranian readiness for nuclear negotiations should be understood. Again, that was exactly the provision of the MOU: to start talking about the nuclear issue after the first phase was implemented and verified. But beyond the news and announcements, my understanding is that the Iranians already know that the chances of this not being accepted by Trump are much higher than the opposite. So, by doing this, and especially by using the venue of the UNGA, they want to show that they were ready for diplomacy and that it was the United States that, for the third time, decided to attack in the middle of a diplomatic track - something that people within Iran' strategic community have been anticipating over the past few days.
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Also today: ➡️Ghalibaf: Diplomacy does not mean capitulation; rather, it is about converting power on the ground into political achievement. ➡️IRGC spokesman: We must determine when and through what course of action our national interests are best served. If our national interests dictate that we fight, then we must fight. If they dictate that we engage in negotiations alongside the fighting, then we must negotiate. ➡️Yahya Rahim Safavi, IRGC general and former military adviser to Ali Khamenei: If the Supreme Leader now deems it in the public interest to give the government a free hand in the negotiations, that represents a significant act of prudent judgment. Whatever Araghchi is negotiating in New York, he appears to have the backing of the security establishment.
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