Hugo Gye
@HugoGye
Britain political correspondent, @TheEconomist. Chairman of the @housmansoc. Þæs ofereode, þisses swa mæg. Get in touch: hugogye@economist.com
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@TheEconomist ANDY BURNHAM EXC #2#
The prime minister's ten-year plan could be pushed into 2027.
It was expected in December, but Burnham tells me: "We may go into the new year, to be honest... December or January, I think we will need to leave that open."
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@TheEconomist Burnham sees the EU question as an increasingly sharp dividing line between Labour and the Tories - he dismisses the suggestion that reopening the Brexit debate is a mistake, but is keen to push the economic arguments to win over sceptical voters
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EXC
Deal with EU at summit this month could boost size of UK economy by 0.4%, updated Treasury analysis says
Andy Burnham tells me this is "a number that you cannot ignore"
Big downgrade in GDP growth forecast for next year from OBR
2026: 1.2% (was 1.1 in spring forecast)
2027: 1% (1.6)
2028: 1.6% (1.6)
2029: 1.8% (1.5)
2030: 1.7% (1.5)
2031: 1.6%
