There was also no mass prediction markets miss. In being told that, of 487 prediction markets on individual elections, 479 of the candidates that were leading at 5 PM last night won.
479/489. That’s a 98% accuracy rate before ANY votes are counted.
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The modern PMC can be found predominantly in the following locations:
- airline club lounges
- Airbnb’s across the street from the beach or one block away from the ski lift
- university alumni clubs and lunch clubs
- middle ring suburbs (if office worker) and exurbs (remote)
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Thinking about the impact of @hilbertspaess’s thread last night, I think it was so powerful because unlike Dario he wasn’t famous.
There’s a great adage about politics I’ve used: “No one will believe an accusation from a president; but they’ll believe a confession from anyone.”
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The anti crypto army doesn’t exist among the electorate.
There are like 100 staffers and academics that really dislike it, but that’s it, and a lot of them are moving on to AI now since it gets more press and has more funding to work on fighting/combatting it.
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