That explains it. GrokBot is growing to fast and losing money. Balancing out usage vs. compute is very hard. Anthropic has figured out after a few years - SPCX will need at least a few months before it's balanced.

Wall Street models AI data centers in dollars per gigawatt. Roughly $50 billion each. That misses the variable that matters most: time. SpaceX stands up a gigawatt in about six months. Neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius take closer to 18. That gap changes the capital math. A finished, contracted gigawatt starts generating cash and can be financed against. The faster you get there, the sooner the same money is free to build the next one. Picture two builders with the same construction loan. One finishes a house in six months, refinances, and starts again. The other takes eighteen. Over two years, the first builds two houses with that money. The second builds one. So the right metric isn’t dollars per gigawatt. It’s dollars per gigawatt per unit of time. On that measure, $50 billion buys SpaceX roughly twice the compute it buys a slower builder. Capital efficiency on a timeline. Not intuitive, and it’s why build speed is worth more than it looks. $SPCX

It’s tricky to predict - the West is clearly in some sort of end stage, and things are accelerating (mostly in Europe, where governments are now dropping their masks more and more openly and the revolt is spreading). In the US , I think 2028 will be a showdown of sorts. Canada and Australia are also destabilizing rapidly. What is unclear is what happens after. I do not believe in a slow or fast decline , it will be a disruption and a change. SI makes the whole thing even more unpredictable. Big picture - I see a lot of energy with younger people on the right across the west - they are high IQ and more and more determined. Together with SI , very big things can now happen very quickly.

Yes, but tacitly doesn’t work. Right now, no one wants to admit it - we live in a democracy simulation in that some just ruthlessly rule over the masses. My proposal is to be more transparent about this and be clear that real democracy only works with delegation - but that delegation should be to other VOTERS that then tell them what to vote for. These super voters can keep check on the politicians. This requires a system of commands transparency and trust and can’t be tacit.

I don’t know why it is happening to me right now, but all these elections make me more and more Aristocracy-pilled. It’s just not possible to have a flat democracy. People need to delegate their political decision making to people they trust, and make sure those people actually do their homework. The average voter is lighters away from being able to make the correct decisions. They are completely at the mercy of the media, and don’t even want to go on X because it is too “exhausting”. The vast majority of people are not willing or not able to process the world at any level sufficient to make reasonable decisions. I am not writing this with any sort of emotion or frustration - it is a recognition that finally came to me. It’s just logistically impossible to transport the knowledge necessary for reasonable political decisions into a critical number of brains. It’s like giving someone who has never heard of math the mission to determine the area under a curve. “What’s an area? What’s a curve? What means determine? Oh wait I have a hair appointment , see you later!”. It’s not going to work. Delegation is the only way

Directionally correct. Massive cash flow is coming in about 12 months. $SPCX will lead the pack by a wide margin, but then the Mag7 follow. People VASTLY underprice something that has proven to be quite valuable throughout history: MONEY.

🧐What people don't undertand about the data center buildout: The BIGGEST variable is time-to-build. Let's assume you have a 6 month payback period once the datacenter is up and running (which, btw, is NUTZ but true). That means if you need 18 months vs. 6 months to stand it up, your ROI and debt situation will be MASSIVELY different. Think about it like this: you want to build as many 1GW clusters as possible. you need 50B for one. With 18 month buildtime and 6 months payback, you need 50B in rolling debt and can build one every 2 years. With 6 months build time, you can build one every 1 year with rolling 50B debt. In addition, after another 6 months, you can build an ADDITIONAL one in parallel with NO debt. This entire math situation is deeply misunderstood by the market - mostly because it can't wrap its head around 1. MASSIVE differences in buildout time 2. MASSIVELY fast paybacks. While the market (kind of) knows it, it breaks their brain and they believe it's a one-off right now that won't be the case next year or the year after. Guess what: you are WRONG. Payback will stay super fast for a long time to come. This is the greatest bonanza in human history - but just the bootloader of what is to come. Easy to understand once you understand intelligence. Impossible to understand if you don't. In a way, nothing has changed: only the intelligent can make money from intelligence. /AI / SPCX compute buildout

Elon is in effect confirming that SPCX is on track to deliver 3GW of compute by end of the year. Less than 0.5 GW delivered 26 billion in annual revenue, at 50%+ margins after depreciation. $SPCX meanwhile is down 20% to under 2T. Insane times.

Often people mock the "normies" and their inability to recognize obvious mechanics in politics. But think about it like this: if you are a soccer mom, you have your hands and brain full with all kinds of things that most people in X don't even want to deal with. From her perspective, we are the blue pilled dummies: we don't even understand why (name of kid) is worried about (thing) in (school etc.) and we don't even know their best 5 friends and what they are all about. Then, at election day, she votes Democrat because CNN told her the day before Trump is a Nazi. She isn't dumb; her focus is just not on the topic. Also, a huge chunk of people don't even vote because they literally don't care. The same is true for AGI, Singularity etc. The bottom line is: yes, some people are dumber and some are smarter. But most people are similarly smart, only with very different compute focuses. That means that in a Democracy, be default most won't have a clue what is happening and what is true and what is not. Even if everyone would be reasonably smart, the majority would RELY on a few to make the decisions for them. NOT just in the sense that you would for representatives, but MORE MORE in the sense that you should ask the one member of your family, community etc. what to vote for and let them do the work. That requires people to 1. Have people they TRUST who are actually political 2. Have those people be RESPONSIBLE with their power 3. Have the normies be AWARE that they have no clue and are consciously outsourcing. If 1. is missing, nothing works. If 2. is missing, those people will abuse their power and screw the people who trust them. If 3. is missing, you have Greta running around talking about geostrategy and energy and we all die.

Yes. This is the cheapest market in living memory. Also, if SPCX delivers on the conservative side of their 2027 outlook, they are also trading at a 12 fwd PE, while growing at about 800% yoy No one knows if there is more volatility ahead in the short term - but it is obvious these are basement bargain deals on the most massive growth story ever.

Pioneerlands projection is that Elon is right about this in principle but 3-5 years early, unless terrestrial buildout faces drastic bottlenecks. I think orbital buildout will exceed terrestrial buildout per month by 2032-2033.