Jo Bhakdi
@JOBhakdi
I generate with $TSLA and AI stocks. Founder of and Thrive in Age of AGI. 🤖 🫡
1K Following 39.7K Followers
True.
I am in a different situation since I am trading institutional with a different setup
Short term capital gains tax is the major disincentive to trading in and out of the stock around short term rallies and dips. At least in regular brokerage accounts.
High income earners would lose as much as 50% of any short term gain on trades.
Tax advantaged IRA accounts is where it would definitely make sense to capitalize on these moves.
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$TSLA Semi is a great product. It's just not a great product for Tesla right now.
The constraint is batteries. Cybercab, Model Y and Semi all draw from the same limited supply of 4680 cells.
So the question isn't whether Semi is good. It's what each cell earns.
Per cell, Semi makes roughly 20 to 30% less than a Model Y, and far less than Cybercab.
When supply is capped, you don't allocate to demand. You allocate to margin. Every cell in a Semi is a cell that didn't go into a higher-earning product.
That's why Semi won't scale anytime soon, even though the market wants it.
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I just held a keynote on exactly that topic.
Yes, Space (X) compute is coming fast and bigly
The amount of compute in space will obviously round up to 100% of all compute
Wouldn’t it be ironic if Elon finally meets his match in a superintelligent toaster…
1. We will keep accelerating. Our AI efforts are only 3 years old, vs 6 and 10 years old for Anthropic and OpenAI. If our second derivative remains strong, SpaceX will reach pole position in about 6 months.
2. Once you far exceed the caliber of intelligence needed for a class of tasks, additional intelligence is pointless. You don’t need (and it would be cruel to put) Newton-level intelligence in your toaster!
3. Hardware is hard. Bringing massive compute online rapidly is incredibly difficult. SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional ability in this regard and will only get better.
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No, the Pioneerlands Cybercab counter works fine
- there is just a difference between new registrations and actually deployed Cybercabs. Our counter shows both (when you click on it), but the widget shows only deployed and spotted Cybercabs.
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@JOBhakdi Thanks Jo. Is you Cybercap Counter broken btw? Best, Jojo
Thank you 😊
Some people don’t seem to get the tactical point of the unlocks for $SPCX.
I am a strategic bull, but as long as we see these unlocks (until Dec 2026), there will be short term selling pressure - and we can use that to generate Pioneer Alpha.
But it’s important to quantify it and recognize potential offsets (aka , good news that come in and override it) as well as that selling pressure is a function of stock price. Higher = more pressure , closer to 135 = less pressure.
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@JOBhakdi Genius stuff 👏
1) it’s simple probabilities: 300m+ shares unlock. Of those, a certain % will automatically sell. The reason people are selling is clear: many employees have 90%+ of their net worth in SpaceX, so they auto-sell a % of it. What is that %? That depends on how high the stock is above IPO price.
I estimate it to be 10% or more. Since I am a bull , I use 20% to be in the safe side. That is a few days of selling pressure.
2) the risk if you play this trade to the downside are overriding events - if SpaceX gets good news, the buyers might burn through the selling pressure quicker.
Historically, we saw (last time for example) a 3%+ drop and then some more pressure but got through it within a couple of days. But I do think it’s reliable for now.
Any market dynamics can worsen or offset, so my me at model is 40-60M additional shares being sold into the market
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So hard to guess with so many unique situations among the holders. Some might want to diversify, some might want to buy their mom a house, some might feel like holding until the average analyst PT of $235.
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Tomorrow, 328 million $SPCX shares unlock. Many holders are employees with nearly all their net worth in one stock. Even the bullish ones sell a slice to diversify, call it 20%.
That's roughly 60 million shares hitting the market.
SpaceX trades about 90 million shares a day. Put 60 million of new supply into 90 million of daily volume and the price gives.
One condition: it has to be trading well above 135, the IPO price. Below that, holders don't sell.
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Tesla Optimus V3 LEAKED: Everything We Know
Wow. Opus 5.5 is 10 times slower than Fable for me on financial modeling work.
This is the most important test flight ever for SpaceX!
Flight 14 will include a 6x orbital trajectory, meaning that the new Starship (super big) will circumnavigate earth six times. It will also deploy 26 real Starlink V3 satellites.
Previously, Satellites were not commercially deployed on test flights because Starship didn't enter an orbital flight path.
Very important, visit for the real time launch tracker!
/AI /Starship flight 14
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SpaceX has stacked Ship 41 onto Booster 21 for Flight 14.
The first Starship built to go to orbit.
@NASASpaceflight
SpaceX has another unlock Thursday, September 24th. Roughly 15% more float hits the market.
I've watched this pattern before, so here's the call: SpaceX drops Thursday, likely below 150, then spends the following days burning through the new shares in the sell queue.
That's a tactical view, not a change in thesis. The bull case is intact. More compute deals are coming, with tens of billions in additional margin this year.
So I'm staying long into Wednesday. Thursday I unload and turn tactically bearish for the unlock window.
$SPCX
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Besides being super interesting, this presentation design blows me away.
This is just cool.
Business perfection - I am impressed @blackstone
BLACKSTONE JUST TOLD ITS INVESTORS THIS IS NOT THE DOT-COM BUBBLE.
Jon Gray runs the largest alternative asset manager on earth. He just showed the room the exact number that separates 2026 from 2000. And it is not close.
Blackstone deployed almost $100 billion into data centers this year alone.
Six gigawatts of new capacity. Their tenants will add another $200 billion in chips on top of that.
Blackstone did not do this because they were guessing.
"hyperscaler capex, five companies, $415 billion last year. that number has doubled this year to $820 billion. that's equal to 2.5% of the GDP of the United States"
"SK Hynix today trades at a four P/E multiple. it is not 2000 when Cisco was trading at 150 times earnings"
Then he showed the cost of building one AI factory:
"$55 billion for a gigawatt"
"the beef is the return on investment"
bookmark & watch the moments worth watching twice ↓
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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has 1.6 million people. Its election shouldn't matter outside Germany.
It does, because it isn't really about the state. It's a directional signal.
State results lag national sentiment, and they're now pointing the same way twice in two weeks. The question they raise isn't who governs Schwerin. It's whether the AfD eventually reaches federal government power.
That's the scenario that would reorder Europe, because Germany isn't one member among 27. It's roughly a quarter of EU GDP and the largest net contributor to the budget. A Berlin government with a fundamentally different view on migration, regulation, and the EU itself doesn't just change German policy, it forces every other capital to respond.
That's why a state election in the northeast is front-page news in New York.
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Holy ! Grok 4.7 is here.
It clearly outperforms Grok 4.6 at the same price and speed.
We are now used to rapid progress, but it’s still crazy to think about. GrokBot is my go to assistant right now (codex and cowork fable for more advanced things), can’t wait to test it
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Grok 4.7 is here.
It's a notable improvement over Grok 4.6 at the same price and speed.
“Lower GPU pricing” is a risk to the AI trade , says Rothschild Redburn.
Sure - the problem is that HIGHER GPU pricing is a much greater risk if current trends continue. And all indicators point towards that.
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Rothschild Redburn comes out bearish on AI compute initiating Sell ratings on both $NBIS and $CRWV questioning whether AI compute “unit economics” can hold.
Its bear case is that lower GPU pricing, more in-house capacity and expensive financing eventually compress returns.
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I don’t think this will be a real problem - the others have an incentive being not-compatible. They just have to figure it out quickly
@JOBhakdi What do you think the solution will be moving forward, when we all use bots but some sights check and block them? Currently having issues with my shopping bot being denied access.
Germans wonder how young people , especially women , could vote majority communist in Berlin.
They wonder what went wrong : do they not have a dad ? Don’t they think? Don’t they have loyalty to their country?
But those who ask these questions picture the wrong “young women” in their mind.
Yes, they have a dad. Yes, they are deeply loyal to their country. But neither their dad nor their country are German.
Young people with a migration background make up nearly 50% of all children and teenagers living in Berlin.
The new version of the communist parties in Sweden and Germany are not delusional white female liberals. They are clan-connected invasion machines.
They are not dumb, they are not naive, they are not pampered.
They are brutal, determined and ready to plunder.
And if you were a young woman in that crowd, you also would vote communist. Because you want to live.
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51% der jungen Frauen unter 25 Jahren in Berlin haben die Linkspartei gewählt.
Damit hat die absolute Mehrheit der jungen Frauen Enteignungen, Kommunismus Massenmigration und Antisemitismus gewählt.
Wer hat diese Frauen so verdorben und wie kann man das je wieder normalisieren?
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I did a lot of AI Bot testing recently:
GrokBot, Cowork, Codex.
The bottom line is that AGI is now ready.
Every human has access to effectively u limited competent employees for nearly free.
Now, we have to make everyone a Pioneer:
A reality engineer who envisions a more desirable future and breaks the path to that future down into a system of objectives , tasks and processes their employees (bots) can execute on.
This process of seeing the future and operationalizing the path towards it is non trivial and needs to be explained , trained and tool-enabled.
We are building that right now in the Pioneer Academy.
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