Oh boy… ok … it’s SO EASY in the fast tweet world to read something like this… retweet or repost … and take it as gospel
It is the MAIN thing that makes me mad about AI is all high level critical thinking just disappears
Let’s take the below …
*9% is the gross rev a 2023 Columbia model says US data centers need in 2032 to earn a 10% return tbc
**food at ~9% is households buying groceries and meals….the AI num is operator revenue, including foreign customers and firms buying AI as an input….those sales do not stack on GDP the way food does
***the computer / peripherals chart could be top 10 chart crimes in fintwit history… also actually bullish AI 🚨🚨
I’m not sure what the number is yet… but stuff like this is counting the
@Uber TAM by taxi cab medallion costs.. wrong
For the AI buildout to pay off, Americans will eventually have to spend about 9% of GDP a year on AI services. Sit with that number.
That is roughly what the entire country spends on food.
A Columbia paper presented at Brookings estimates AI revenue would need to hit $3.5 trillion by 2032, about 8.8% of GDP, to justify what is being committed today. That is bigger than any investment boom in US history, and 7 times what Americans spend on phone, streaming, and internet combined.
Now look at computers. Prices fell for 50 straight years, but business spending on them as a share of GDP plateaued in the 1980s and never climbed again. Cheaper and better did not mean an ever-larger slice of the economy.
AI will almost certainly raise productivity. Whether it delivers the revenue investors are pricing is another matter. That gap is what the buildout is underpricing.
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