KawzInvests(@KawzInvests):What do you guys make of this? There seems to be a disconnect. When $SMH was bottoming on July 29: > SMH: ~$504 > 10Y yield: 4.67% > WTI: ~$85 > September hike odds: 58.4% Now: > $SMH: ~$562 > 10Y yield: ~4.95% > WTI: ~$102 > September hike odds: 64% SMH is roughly 11% higher despite higher oil, yields and hike odds. Are stronger earnings expectations enough to explain the resilience? Could institutions be staying long and hedging elsewhere, or are equities underpricing the macro risk? With CPI tomorrow and FOMC next week, could we see another setup like July?

2026.09.10 19:39

What do you guys make of this? There seems to be a disconnect. When $SMH was bottoming on July 29: > SMH: ~$504 > 10Y yield: 4.67% > WTI: ~$85 > September hike odds: 58.4% Now: > $SMH: ~$562 > 10Y yield: ~4.95% > WTI: ~$102 > September hike odds: 64% SMH is roughly 11% higher despite higher oil, yields and hike odds. Are stronger earnings expectations enough to explain the resilience? Could institutions be staying long and hedging elsewhere, or are equities underpricing the macro risk? With CPI tomorrow and FOMC next week, could we see another setup like July?