The Kobeissi Letter(@KobeissiLetter):Leading indicators point to higher US inflation. The ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose +2.3 points in August, to 72.6, its highest since July 2022. Since February, the index has risen +9.6 points, its largest 6-month increase since May 2025. Historically, this metric has led CPI inflation and core PCE inflation by ~6 months. If the historical relationship holds, the current reading suggests CPI could rise to as high as 6.0% in the coming months, from 3.4% in July. At the same time, this implies core PCE could increase above 4.0%, from July’s reported 3.3%. Inflation pressures are intensifying in the US.

2026.09.08 17:49

Leading indicators point to higher US inflation. The ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose +2.3 points in August, to 72.6, its highest since July 2022. Since February, the index has risen +9.6 points, its largest 6-month increase since May 2025. Historically, this metric has led CPI inflation and core PCE inflation by ~6 months. If the historical relationship holds, the current reading suggests CPI could rise to as high as 6.0% in the coming months, from 3.4% in July. At the same time, this implies core PCE could increase above 4.0%, from July’s reported 3.3%. Inflation pressures are intensifying in the US.